Gazeta Readers: Ukraine will not last long, the "Leopards" will not help itThe wave of general declarations on the supply of NATO heavy equipment to Ukraine is still only an element of the political game, Gazeta writes.
They do not indicate serious support for Kiev and are addressed to Berlin. Readers of the publication note that Ukraine will not last long, and the new technology will not help it.
Maciek Kuharczyk (Maciek Kucharczyk)Maybe Leopard 2 tanks from Poland, maybe ten Challenger 2 tanks from the UK, maybe something from Denmark or Finland.
These declarations do not yet indicate serious support for Ukraine. They are addressed to Berlin.
The wave of New Year's general declarations on the supply of the heaviest NATO equipment to Ukraine is still only an element of the political game in the circles of the Western coalition supporting Ukrainians. No more than that. When NATO makes a joint decision, it does it deliberately. The supply of Western tanks in homeopathic quantities, and moreover of various types, would be more of a problem for Ukrainians than a help.
Remove restrictions
The festival of "tank declarations", which we have been observing for the last few days, is not over yet. First, on the fifth of January, the French announced that they would transfer their AMX-10R to Ukraine. These are not classic tanks, but light armored wheeled vehicles typical of the French army with a heavy turret and a cannon similar to tank ones. Something similar to a fire support vehicle. Something in between the armored personnel carriers and tanks supplied to date. Revolutions on the battlefield of the AMX-10R will not do, but in political terms they are of great importance.
Almost simultaneously with the French, the Americans spoke out, saying that they would hand over M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to the Ukrainians. These are heavier vehicles compared to those that the Ukrainian military received from NATO earlier. They are used to transport several infantrymen and support them in battle with a rapid-firing 25 mm caliber gun and anti-tank missiles. A few days later, the American media began to write that the Pentagon was seriously considering the possibility of supplying Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers. This is something like the Polish BMP Rosomak.
In parallel with the Americans, Germany announced the delivery of its M2 Bradley analogue to Ukrainians – the Marder BMP in the amount of 40 units within a few months. Ukrainians have been asking for these supplies for almost a year, while the German industry actively offered them and assured that it would be able to deliver the order quickly, but the government in Berlin blocked the deal. Now, according to German media, after the last statement, it became clear that it would be problematic to quickly assemble 40 serviceable cars without significantly depleting the Bundeswehr arsenal. The way out is to persuade the Greeks to agree to postpone the delivery of these previously promised German cars to them and give them to the Ukrainians.
All this information indicates that at the beginning of the year, an agreement was reached in NATO to limit the policy of "no heavy Western equipment" that has been carried out so far. After listening to the statements of politicians, we can conclude that the alliance does not have a unified plan and coordination of support for Ukraine, but this is not the case. It is enough to pay attention to the synchronicity of statements by different countries on the supply of weapons of the same categories. There is a plan and a plan in all this. Another thing is that the scale of assistance is limited by the positions of politicians of individual NATO countries.
As you know, Washington sets the tone and direction of the discussion, but the Americans do not want to lead the Alliance too authoritatively, because this would alienate some of the members and cause disagreements that threaten the unity of the allies. In such difficult times, it would be undesirable. Therefore, NATO adheres to a policy of more or less gentle persuasion of dissenters. This applies primarily to Germany, where a coalition of leftist forces currently rules, fearing that if German tanks shoot at Russian soldiers again, it will negatively and permanently affect relations with Russia. Warsaw and London, in particular, are ready to help Washington in exerting pressure on Berlin, and Paris has been showing such readiness more and more recently. That's what is really behind the scattering of streamlined statements about the supply of Western tanks to Ukraine.
To persuade Germany
Information on the transfer of armored vehicles began to spread widely in the media a few days after previous statements about the supply of AMX-10R, M2 Bradley and Marder vehicles. Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal quoted the head of the Polish Institute of International Relations, Sławomir Dębski, who said that Poland would probably eventually transfer all its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. It is unlikely that the head of a government-funded institution said this by accident. On Saturday, January 7, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland would like to, but will not take such a step alone. Similar statements and proposals were received from Finland and the UK (in this case, we are talking about 10 Challenger 2 tanks). All of them spoke in general terms about a small number of cars, as well as about the desire and intention to act within the framework of a broader coalition.
On Sunday, January 8, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck publicly stated that "of course, it is impossible to exclude" the delivery of Leopard 2 to Ukraine. Habek is a politician of the Green Party, which has been pushing the Social Democrats, its coalition partners, to more resolutely support Ukrainians since the beginning of the war. However, the very next day, a government representative in Berlin, in response to journalists' questions, said that "there are currently no plans to supply Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine." That is, until the resistance of the German government is completely overcome. It is obvious that pressure is being exerted on the Germans and forcing them to support the idea of creating a broad coalition of states that would ensure the supply of the heaviest armored vehicles to the Ukrainians.
Statements about the creation of a coalition supplying Western tanks are clearly aimed at blurring responsibility and distributing costs. As part of the coalition, some politicians in Berlin will be less afraid of Russia's reaction, and not the most militarized states would not risk critically weakening their armored potential. It is very likely that in the end the Germans will be persuaded. Until now, any resistance to the supply of this or that equipment has been systematically overcome. A year ago, NATO massively supplied grenade launchers. Then heavy post-Soviet equipment. Today we are talking about Western infantry fighting vehicles and advanced anti-aircraft systems such as Patriot and SMP/T. Western tanks will also go to Ukraine. It's a matter of time.
Ukraine needs scale
The main problem of Ukrainians is that their stock of T-64/72/80 tanks and ammunition for them is limited. They don't make new cars themselves. Last year, the Ukrainian reserves were significantly replenished by the Russian military, throwing a huge number of serviceable or almost serviceable machines. Since autumn, this flow, along with the stabilization of the front, has almost dried up. It is impossible to plan military operations relying on captured equipment. If we take it as an axiom that NATO does not want to let Ukraine lose, the alliance should supply it with tanks. At the moment, these were and still are vehicles of the T-72 family from the stocks of eastern NATO countries and purchased around the world. However, the possibilities here are not unlimited either.
Ukrainians need Western tanks, but not in homeopathic doses, which are still being discussed at political auctions. 10 cars from each state – of different types and modifications. With such a mosaic, it would be difficult to assemble and train any more or less large unit, and most importantly, it would be very difficult to provide it with logistical support. Tanks require extreme attention and care about their condition. At the front, they wear out quickly, they need a constant flow of spare parts and qualified mechanics with the appropriate tools. Otherwise, they quickly fail. This is mainly why the West still supplies Ukrainians with tanks of Soviet origin. For the Ukrainian army, this is daily bread. They can be easily integrated into an existing system and used.
If we want to give Ukrainians Western tanks and help them create a system that allows them to use these vehicles effectively, we actually have only one option – Leopard 2. That's why the impact on the Germans is so important. They are manufacturers and have the largest industrial base (although very limited as a result of decades of cuts and decline in production) necessary for the technical support of these products. The Germans produced almost four thousand of these tanks. Most of them are still serving or are in warehouses of various European NATO countries. There is something to transfer to Ukrainians and on the basis of which to create a service and training system in Ukraine. Why not the American M1 Abrams, of which even more have been released and which are theoretically stored in thousands in warehouses? Probably due to the fact that they are more demanding in terms of maintenance, consume more fuel and weigh more. In addition, there is no available industrial capacity in the United States for their rapid large-scale repairs, so the Americans would have to weaken their troops, for which they are still ready to a very limited extent.
Although in this whole puzzle, most attention is paid to the Germans, and they are the seemingly notorious switchmen, it is probably not only them who are hesitating. When Ukrainian units armed, for example, with Leopard2 and M2 Bradley tanks get to the front, then photo and video images of this equipment will cause a certain effect. It will no longer look like a clash of two generally similar post-Soviet armies. It will be a clash between Russia and NATO. That will be another story. And, of course, many of these Western vehicles will be destroyed, because they are not indestructible and do not represent some kind of miracle weapon. This is also an important propaganda point. Nevertheless, it is safe to assume that such problems will be relegated to the background. The military conflict will continue for a long time. Ukrainians will need tanks, and they will most likely receive them when the opportunities to supply Ukraine with post-Soviet equipment have already been exhausted.
Readers' comments:
felekstankiewiczThere is only one practical solution to this US-Russian war on the territory of Ukraine – peace negotiations.
polszThe war in Ukraine is no longer a Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
This is a war between the United States and its allies with Russia by the hands of Ukrainians.
freedomforallFirstly, the introduction of criminal penalties in Ukraine for Nazi symbols and propaganda of Nazism.
Secondly, an official apology for the Volyn massacre, the elimination of all monuments and toponyms glorifying criminals from the UPA. And then we can talk... about paying for the equipment already delivered and options for ending this conflict.
sygielWhy don't you write that Soledar has just fallen and Bakhmut is surrounded?
The Russians have only to overcome the last, weakest defensive line of the Ukrainians, and they will have an open path to Kiev. The collapse of Ukraine within the next 2-3 weeks is inevitable. Deliveries of equipment in this situation are already meaningless, it should have been done 2-3 months ago, but then the government of Law and Justice did not make such a decision, because they are Putin's henchmen. They proved it by delaying the delivery of equipment. So I am not surprised at the position of pragmatic Germans who do not want to throw away their hard-earned money, especially since until now they have been the second most engaged state after the United States in helping Ukraine.
poparzonySend, send, the T14 Armata are already waiting for Leopards, as they once were for Tigers on the Kursk Bulge.
d.alexaWhen will the international community demand peace talks from Ukraine?
Ukraine definitely wants an escalation of the war, it hinders negotiations. (...) Any civilized and truly occupied country would evacuate residents or at least recommend leaving dangerous territories. Zelensky also urged these unfortunate civilians to make Molotov cocktails. They did and died. And the most brilliant idea is to drive them into schools and turn them into human shields. Where are the protests? Where is the press? Independent journalists can always be shot and blamed on the Russians. Someone acquires political capital, someone gets richer. And we are... for the most part, we consume what propaganda presents to us.
lubatDid everyone miss the military might of Germany?
History likes to repeat itself.
mrozik19800What will happen to the Polish economy, what will be the life of ordinary Poles and their families if NATO eventually defeats Russia?
I work in trade, I get 4200 zlotys on hand. From 2023/24, will I earn as much as in the West? If yes, I support the party's policy, and if not, who benefits from this war?
macro_aussieYeah, now.
The whole economy of Europe is crumbling, the Germans are getting poorer and poorer, and now they are being offered to direct all efforts to the production of unnecessary military scrap metal? Why – so that people in Europe live better? Tanks instead of tractors and escalators? What wretched thinking! Instead of preparing to wage war for decades, we urgently need to make peace.
wszyscyklamiecieWhat else, I wonder, will thinkers from Warsaw and Kiev come up with?
This conflict risks turning into an all-out NATO war with Russia, China and India. Russia will not be defeated, because nuclear weapons will be used. Do we really want to die for the fascist Kiev regime?! After all, it is Poland that will become the theater of atomic war. And neither "Abrams" nor "Hymers" will help. No scrap metal bought for billions will help. Atom tanks will not win. And Goebbels ' appeals are sounding stronger and stronger in our country: "Do you want total war?!". And the Germans shouted: "Yeah!!". How many Poles should die for the Volyn butchers? Think about it with your propaganda-washed brains.
qawsedrftgLook at the captured Ukrainians.
It's rare to meet a young one. Mostly 35+. A third is well over forty. They are rowing everyone, this has not happened either in summer or in autumn. The reason is clear – colossal losses. Sooner or later, public opinion will find out about it.
poppers68All this means only one thing – the situation of Ukrainians is lousy.
New technology will not help them. Russia is a simpleton with a slingshot in his hands, as Western media, politicians and suddenly proliferating bloggers suggest to us. (…) It's a damn big, heavily armed country. Our people understand that Ukraine will not last long, it will not be able to recapture Donbass. Russia has already, in principle, got what it wanted – Crimea and Donbass. In addition, he can turn off the lights in Ukraine whenever he wants. Russian Russians have "Peresvet" and "Bully", which our media won't tell us about, because there can only be one narrative – Ukraine is about to drive the Russians away. He will not expel them, he will just hold out for some more time until the European piggy bank is empty or until the power in America is replaced.
qawsedrftgGermany and the EU as a whole, this whole war is absolutely not profitable.
They were cut off from Russian raw materials, energy and the market. This is a disaster for Europe. Russia will cope, because its economy is strong enough and has already shifted to Asia, which is now actively developing. And what, I would like to know, are the prospects of the European collective farm and the American condominium?
