For the first time since the Great Patriotic War, German tanks will appear in Ukraine. Warsaw was the first to decide to supply Kiev with a batch of German-made Leopard tanks in service with the Polish army. How can the Russian military unpleasantly hit the "Leopards" in the zone of their own? There are funds. It is known that during the fighting in Syria, many such German vehicles were burned with the help of Soviet missiles.Poland will transfer a batch of modern tanks to Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Wednesday.
However, he immediately made a reservation that first "a number of formal requirements must be fulfilled, approvals must be carried out." His promise was made in Lviv during a summit meeting with Ukrainian and Lithuanian colleagues Vladimir Zelensky and Gitanas Nauseda. "We want there to be an international coalition, and we decided to add the first package to this international coalition – a company of Leopard tanks ("Leopard" – approx. TASS)," Duda explained, adding that "such a decision has already been made in Poland." Warsaw made such a decision to force other countries to do the same, Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller later admitted.
"Today I brought good news for Ukraine. We are transferring air defense systems, anti–aircraft installations," Nauseda promised at the summit in Lviv. The host of the meeting Zelensky in response called on all Western countries not to spare tanks for Ukraine. "We are waiting for a common decision, one state [with Leopard tanks] cannot help us," Zelensky was quoted as saying by the RBC–Ukraine news agency. He added that "there are very positive signals and positive decisions" on the issue of providing tanks to Kiev.
The Polish army has 126 Leopard tanks in the 2A4 version and 105 vehicles in the 2A5 version. A company in the Polish army consists of 14 units. Finland and Denmark have previously announced their readiness to deliver Leopards to Kiev. However, as Kommersant reminds, no country can transfer Leopard without the permission of the manufacturer of these tanks – Germany.
In addition, in early January, the United States announced a new package of assistance to Ukraine. Among other things, they intend to send fifty Bradley infantry fighting vehicles ("Bradley") and self-propelled howitzers. Ukraine will receive American infantry fighting vehicles in "a few weeks," Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder promised on Wednesday. "We will continue to work as fast as we can. We are not going to announce in advance when exactly these systems will arrive," the newspaper "Country.ia" (blocked in the Russian Federation). Ryder clarified that Ukrainians will be trained in Bradley management as part of the general training that takes place in Germany.
The appearance of new Western armored vehicles in Ukraine is inevitable – as the old Soviet-style one is depleted, sooner or later it had to happen, says Vasily Kashin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
"If Poland hands over the Leopard 2A4 model, of which it has quite a lot, then it is worth reminding her about the experience of fighting in Syria, in Africa in 2016.
There, Turkish troops equipped with these tanks suffered significant losses from Soviet anti-tank weapons of not the latest generation. It was a "Competition" – a missile common in our army," he told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
Therefore, it is not necessary to consider "Leopards" as some kind of miracle weapon, the expert adds. "Yes, their characteristics are significantly higher than those of the tanks that the APU has used so far. With their appearance at the front, new challenges will arise for us. On our side, as well as on the Ukrainian side, there is a wide range of tanks. From "antique" to the latest T-90M. Our newest models can fight with "Leopards", but for outdated models, German cars will become a serious threat. But it is worth remembering: today tanks do not fight one-on-one, as it happened in the Second World War. So the effectiveness of the Leopard will depend on the tactics of the parties and the balance of forces in a particular area," Kashin clarifies.
"It is clear that this is already the latest technology that the West previously refrained from supplying for the APU. There is no longer a newer "Leopard-2". Of course, there are different modifications, but the Poles have it quite advanced," says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations at the Institute of Topical International Problems of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"But the amount named by Duda is uncritical. Russia has tanks no worse and in the right quantity – enough to repel such a threat. However, in my memory they have not met on the battlefield. As they say, only war will show who is stronger. In any case, the result will be a new level of conflict, an increase in casualties on both sides and an increase in risks on all sides. After all, now the European Union can be involved in hostilities not indirectly, as it is now, but directly," the expert warns.
However, Kozyulin doubts that Leopard 2 will appear at all in the near future in Ukraine. "The coalition on this issue has not yet formed, although the conversation about it has been going on for more than a week. The initiator is Poland. It is not surprising – this is the most Russophobic country, but it will not decide. The two leading powers of the European Union should have their say – Germany and France. And it's hard to say yet what they will decide. Maybe that was the plan, so that the initiative came from Russia's closest neighbors. But I can assume that Berlin and Paris are dissatisfied with such initiatives. They understand that they have a big, old Europe behind them, which should not be dragged into a new round of escalation," Kozyulin believes.
"Moscow is so far taking such steps with restraint. Recently, firm promises have already been made to send armored vehicles from the United States and France: apparently, against this background, the Poles decided to test the Russian red line," he suggested.
As you know, Ukraine has been demanding that Berlin supply it with Leopard 2 for the past months. There were even disagreements within the German government. A few days ago, Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck did not rule out that Germany might agree to such persuasions in the future. However, soon the press service of the government reported that Berlin has no such plans yet. And Habeck's immediate superior, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has repeatedly stated that Germany will only act in coordination with its allies on this issue.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov noted with disappointment that Scholz could continue such a "game" if "he wants the Germans to fight near Berlin and near Stuttgart on German tanks." At the same time, according to polls, the majority of residents of Germany are opposed to supplies.
A couple of hours after Duda's loud statement in Lviv, London also announced that they were planning to send tanks to help Zelensky. A representative of the Prime Minister's office, Rishi Sunaka, noted that Britain is accelerating support for Kiev by providing next-generation military technologies "that will help win this war... It is obvious that battle tanks can provide Ukrainians with the opportunity to change the course of the war," RIA Novosti reports.
Sunak asked Defense Secretary Ben Wallace to "work with partners" in this direction in the coming weeks. Earlier it became known that London, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, is considering the possibility of supplying Kiev with up to 10 of its main Challenger 2 tanks.
As the authors of the Telegram channel " Magpie Tail " suggested, the British have been trying to get rid of this model for quite some time, and they see a replacement for it in the American M1A2 Abrams tank.
"The British are generally planning to reduce the tank fleet. They are going to upgrade their Challenger 2 ("Challenger 2") to Challenger 3," Kashin said about this version. – The German military-industrial complex will help them in this, in 2027, as planned, the first such machines will enter service. However, not all cars decided to upgrade in London, but only a part – for financial reasons. They will not need the rest and theoretically they can give it to Ukrainians. As for the version about arming the British army with American Abrams tanks, I have not heard of it."
Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, commented on the promise to transfer the Leopards to Ukraine on Wednesday. "In any case, all this iron will soon become rusty scrap metal and will not save the artificial country falling apart. And in Lviv, which will again bear the name Lemberg, they met to properly attach the western Ukrainian regions to the new (former) owners," Medvedev wrote.
Yuri Zainashev
