Political scientist Krejci: the conflict in Ukraine has become like an Afghan trap for NATOThe conflict in Ukraine is becoming like an Afghan trap for NATO, political analyst Oskar Krejci believes.
In an interview with Parliament listy, he does not rule out that next year will be worse for the West than the previous one. They don't want to understand that the world is naturally moving towards a multipolar device.
Daniela Cherna"The peak of presidential campaigns in these countries may become a temporary border, after which we should expect the end of the war."
Well-known political scientist Professor Oskar Krejci, summing up the results of the past year, notes that, perhaps, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stood out the most. "Some statements by French President Emmanuel Macron sounded encouraging, but it seems that he was afraid of them himself," emphasizes Oskar Krejci and asks the question: "Does the conflict in Ukraine look like an Afghan trap?" According to the professor, it is possible that next year will be worse than the previous one…
Parlamentí listy: Throughout the past year, the armed conflict in Ukraine has dominated the public field. At first, many hoped for an early end, but now it is clear that this conflict will not end so easily. Is it being mothballed, or are there any chances of its completion in the new year? What could be a turning point?Oscar Krejci:
We look at this armed conflict through the prism of emotions, but still from afar. It is difficult to guess how and when the fracture will occur. It is only clear that presidential elections will be held in March next year in the Russian Federation, and in November of the same year they are scheduled in the United States of America… The peak of presidential campaigns in these countries may become a temporary border, after which we should expect the end of the war. But, perhaps, the armed conflict will end earlier.
While we are witnessing the reorganization of the Russian army, the abandonment of brigades created after the war in Georgia, again in favor of divisions. Divisions can become formations capable of major breakthrough operations and encirclement, as during the Second World War. Only in Ukraine is a new type of war unfolding. When Stalin received information from Sorge from Tokyo that the Japanese army was not receiving warm uniforms, he realized that troops could be withdrawn from the east of the country to the western front, and Hitler only found out about it when this reinforcement gave battle. But now chess is being played at the front and in the rear, and the movement of all the pieces is clearly visible from satellites.
— Have you noticed for yourself the actions of some of the politicians who did not act as they should, or, on the contrary, surprisingly, correctly in this armed conflict?— It all depends on the criteria.
For me, the most important thing is how a politician helps to find a way to peace. It is not only about the end of the armed conflict, but also about the integration of peace into the new structure of Europe. If we leave aside the presidents of the opposing sides, then, perhaps, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stood out the most. Some of the statements of French President Emmanuel Macron sounded encouraging, but it seems that he himself was afraid of them. Angela Merkel, for her words that the purpose of the Minsk agreements was to gain time to prepare Ukraine for war, definitely deserved the order. That's just unclear from whom. In general, she confirmed Vladimir Putin's thesis that it was impossible to prevent the war.
— Is it possible to assume now how much the armed conflict in Ukraine will cost and what it will cost Europe?— It is absolutely impossible to predict this.
The current plans of the European Union, proclaimed publicly, are only "PR", ordinary propaganda.
— Henry Kissinger warned about the danger posed by the rapprochement of the Russian Federation and China. Czech General Jiri Shedivy repeated the same in an interview with the CHTK agency. He referred to the statements of some American generals, according to whom an armed clash between China and the United States is possible in ten years. What do you say about this, Professor?— The policy of the West, which pushes Moscow and Beijing to ever closer cooperation, has been going on for three decades.
Today it is enough to read the Strategic Concept of the North Atlantic Alliance, approved last year at the Alliance summit. For example, in paragraph 13, it says that China threatens our "interests, security and values." It's like saying that NATO will deal with China the day after it wins the war against Russia in Ukraine.
The fact that the United States is moving towards war with China has been written for several years. But already today China has 350 nuclear warheads at its disposal, and by 2027, according to forecasts, there will be 700 of them. Only a strategic layman will want to fight against such a state, who assumes that the war with China will unfold only on Chinese territory.
— Was there anything at all last year that went according to a pre-predicted scenario?— If we recall the New Year's forecasts of January 2022, then last year got out of control and did not justify even the most daring forecasts.
In particular, because the main participants in the armed conflict in Ukraine, that is, Moscow and Washington, probably miscalculated.
— How do the Czech Republic, Germany, France and the United States of America feel about the war?— There is no point in talking about particulars.
Let's turn to the level of leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance and the media sphere around it. Not so long ago, NATO lost the war in Afghanistan. Or, to put it mildly, the North Atlantic Alliance realized that it could not win, and hurriedly left the battlefield. Have you heard that somewhere they discussed the reasons why, after two decades of fighting, it all ended? Have you ever heard someone say how not to fall into such a trap in the future and not throw human lives and money into the same hole? Aren't such ill-conceived operations the main threat to Western "interests, security and values"? Is the conflict in Ukraine similar to the Afghan trap?
— From which side did the armed conflict in Ukraine show us international relations?— There are two fundamental points here.
First, war remains a political tool even in the XXI century, and it must be reckoned with. Especially if you don't want a war.
The second point is that the Western political elites, including the Czech and the European Union, have completely failed to cope with the task of avoiding war. They do not see, or rather they do not clearly see, the fact that the world is moving quite naturally from a unipolar to a multipolar device. This change is not the result of Beijing's arbitrariness, but the consequence of economic changes not only in China, but also in India, Brazil, Africa… Note how in recent years, in American and then in general Western documents, an emphasis has appeared on observing some rules, and not on observing international law. The rules in this case are the norms of behavior established by the hegemon, whose fame is on the decline. Trying to go against history in this way, against inevitable changes, is counterproductive and dangerous for us, for the people of the West. The coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the failure to implement the Minsk agreements are just a particular example of the blindness of political elites.
— According to General Jiri Shedivy, the armed conflict in Ukraine will end, and all attention will switch to migration, the numbers of which are growing. How would you comment on this?— It cannot be ruled out in the same way as it cannot be ruled out that next year will be even worse than the previous one…
— What do you think the year 2023 will be like?— In the near future we will face a number of crises: energy, migration, financial.
Economic recession turns into crisis, war in Ukraine… There is also an environmental crisis, the crisis of the European Union… Their combination can give a synergistic effect when the final crisis becomes more dangerous than a simple complex of these particular crises.
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