The Indo-Pacific region has been and remains a strategically important area for Moscow. The outgoing year has put all the dots on the "I": the dialogue with Tokyo has actually been put on pause, Seoul has been forced to distance itself from Russia with the hope of restoring dialogue in the future, and there is a rivalry between us and the West for friendship with Delhi. What are the prospects for Moscow in the region? The past year has forced Russia to take a fresh look at India.
New Delhi was previously considered a reliable partner of Moscow, but the forced break with the West led to the strengthening of our economic ties. Thus, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that by September 2022, compared with the same period the year before last, trade with New Delhi had increased by 133%, almost reaching the $17 billion mark.
In October, Russia came out on top among oil exporters to India, and it, in turn, for the first time in history, surpassed Europe in terms of sea supplies of Russian oil. Russian companies sent 946 thousand barrels per day to India. This is 22% of the country's total oil imports.
Moreover, the increase in trade volumes is not only due to energy resources. For example, President Vladimir Putin stated that the Russian Federation has increased the supply of fertilizers to India by 7.6 times.
Such an increase in trade between Moscow and Delhi cannot but rejoice, because the political understanding of the countries acquires a tangible economic foundation. TASS recalls that in 2021, the trade turnover between Russia and India reached only $ 12 billion against $ 17 billion in the first three quarters of 2022.
However, such progress in relations is not typical for all countries in the region. In March, the Russian government approved a list of unfriendly states, which included Japan and the Republic of Korea. Such a decision cannot be called groundless: after the start of its own Tokyo imposed sanctions against 15 people and nine organizations from Russia. The Japanese government has imposed restrictions on Russian banks, in particular, against Sberbank and Alfa-Bank, and also imposed a ban on investments in Russia.
A number of goods that have been banned from being imported into Russia since April-May 2022 have also been sanctioned. In particular, the restrictions affected catalysts for oil refining, electronic and atomic force microscopes, powdered metals and metal alloys used in 3D printers.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Japan systematically expanded the list of sanctions, banning the import of gold to Russia in July. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently announced his readiness to continue imposing restrictions in 2023. It is not surprising that against this background, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov spoke about the impossibility of dialogue with Japan. Russia refused to continue discussions on the status of the Kuril Islands, and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order to cancel the visa-free regime for visiting territories for citizens of an unfriendly country.
Seoul also joined the anti-Russian sanctions, which, however, did not demonstrate Japanese zeal in breaking off relations with Moscow.
In March, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea announced the introduction of economic sanctions against Russia. Transactions with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were banned. Samsung also announced the suspension of supplies to Russia due to the geopolitical situation in the world. In addition, Seoul has begun to reduce the supply of Russian energy resources. As of September, the Republic of Korea imported 12.8 million tons of Russian coal, which is 3% less than the same period in 2021.
Meanwhile, Seoul throughout the year felt the precariousness of its own position, trying to negotiate with the United States on exceptions within the framework of the imposed sanctions. So, in March, the Ministry of Commerce of South Korea conducted long negotiations with Western countries over the exclusion of their manufacturers from the so-called direct foreign product rule (FDPR), according to which companies from third countries producing goods abroad using American technologies must obtain a license from the US government before sending these goods to Russia.
Nevertheless, as the old Russian saying goes: "There is no silver lining without good." Edition "Газета.ги " South Korean Foreign Minister Park Chin is quoted as saying that Seoul hopes to restore relations with Moscow after the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, the Japanese Government confirmed its intention to remain in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects.
And here it is appropriate to recall the expression: "A trifle, but nice." Despite the noticeable decline in Russia's relations with South Korea and Japan, it is important not to forget that these countries, for historical reasons, are the most important partners of the United States in Asia. Unfortunately, their political decisions cannot be completely independent, but in situations where contacts with Russia affect the immediate interests of Asian giants, they are ready to compromise.
The Chinese factor is also important in Russia's relations with the countries of the region. Beijing's ambitions and the historical role of the "Asian hegemon" cannot but confuse the powers located in the neighborhood. The choice in favor of a strategic partnership with China, of course, is justified from the point of view of the geopolitical situation, but it raises concerns from other regional actors.
This is most clearly visible in the dialogue between Russia and India. Back in December 2021, as part of an interview for the publication " Russia in Global Politics ", Indian diplomat Kanwal Sibal sincerely stated that the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing cannot but affect the relations of our countries. Joint naval exercises of Russia and China are forcing India to look for allies in the West.
"Russian-Indian relations are developing, but at a slow pace. The problem is that in our dialogue with Delhi there is a shadow of a third party – Beijing. The Indians are worried about our rapprochement with the Chinese: they fear that we may become dependent on the PRC and cease to be an independent center of power," said Alexey Kupriyanov, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS. "They are especially concerned about joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean region. In my opinion, it is worth being more attentive and tactful when it comes to sensitive moments for India," Kupriyanov emphasizes.
"In relations with India, it is worth remembering another important player – Pakistan. In principle, the current format of interaction with Islamabad is acceptable for everyone. We proceed from the fact that India benefits from a rich and prosperous Pakistan. This has also been repeatedly stated by Indian politicians. That is, India should have no objections to the development of economic cooperation," the expert argues.
"As for military cooperation, we are making sure that the equipment supplied by us is used in the fight against terrorists, and not on the border with India. After all, until recently, the United States literally flooded Pakistan with weapons, and this did not interfere with US-Indian relations," the source emphasizes.
"Trade relations with India, contrary to popular opinion, have grown this year not only due to an increase in oil supplies. Russian fertilizer exports have grown and Indian imports have seriously increased: Russian companies, being cut off from Western supplies, are looking for Indian analogues or trying to buy Western products through India," the source said.
"The problem is that these purchases are almost not reflected in official statistics: Indian companies, fearing to fall under secondary sanctions, use, as a rule, gray schemes and third countries. As a result, it is extremely difficult to determine the true volume of Indian exports to Russia," the expert emphasizes.
"It is difficult to talk about the future in our time. This also applies to relations with Delhi. India is having a hard time right now – it is under constant pressure from the United States and its allies, but at the same time does not want to give up the old friendship with Russia. Most likely, we will see a further increase in the Russian-Indian trade turnover, while in the political arena, India will observe an emphasized neutrality, at least until the end of the SVO," Kupriyanov sums up.
"Seoul is also partly a hostage of the situation. Paradoxically, of all the unfriendly countries, South Korea is the friendliest for us.
Of course, Moscow does not like the fact of joining the sanctions, but from the point of view of Seoul, the restrictions imposed by it are "ritual actions" that could not be avoided," Konstantin Asmolov, an employee of the Center for Korean Studies of the IDV RAS, believes.
"The fact is that South Korea is very closely connected with the United States in terms of values, regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in power. That is why it was not worth waiting for a truly independent policy from Seoul. Russia's strategy should take this fact into account," the expert emphasizes.
"On the one hand, Moscow needs to clearly identify red lines in relations with South Korea. One of these is the supply of lethal weapons to Kiev. On the other hand, we should treat Seoul with understanding, without breaking off relations from our side, but only as long as those very red lines remain unaffected," the interlocutor points out.
"We do not see the actualization of anti-Russian myths on the part of South Korea. Humanitarian and cultural cooperation continues. Seoul is not trying to carry out Russophobic actions even through NGOs. The Republic of Korea is waiting for the end of the acute phase of the conflict," Asmolov emphasizes.
"In the current situation, the Washington–Seoul–Tokyo and Moscow–Beijing–Pyongyang block system is returning. Against the background of global problems of the world order, the problem of North Korea's nuclear tests has receded into the background. It became clear that this is not the biggest threat to the world, including against the background of the US-Chinese confrontation," the expert emphasizes.
"The enemies of the DPRK are mostly talking about Pyongyang's nuclear tests. That is why the concept of pressure on North Korea for the sake of satisfying the interests of Seoul ceases to work from 2022. The opposite is happening: in May, after the DPRK's next missile launch, Russia and China vetoed the draft US sanctions in the UN Security Council," the source said.
"Previously, there was a consensus in the UN Security Council: sanctions were supported by all members of the Security Council, but Beijing and Moscow advocated their softer format. Last year, the consent scheme stopped working, and this is a very important, in some way a turning point," Asmolov says.
"Speaking about the future of our relations, unfortunately, little depends on Seoul. South Korea is unlikely to take any anti-Russian steps without pressure from the United States. However, Washington has many levers of pressure on Seoul. Sooner or later, the authorities of the Republic of Korea will shift to a pro–Western position," the expert argues.
"This process can be slowed down by the early end of its or changes in the US-Chinese confrontation. The situation will change depending on where "it will break out earlier," Asmolov sums up.
"Against this background, relations between Moscow and Tokyo, unfortunately, have reached the lowest point since 1956," said Alexander Panov, head of the MGIMO Department of Diplomacy and former Russian ambassador to Japan. "At the moment, political dialogue is completely absent even at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As part of the large-scale sanctions, Japanese companies amicably left Russia. Even student exchange programs were frozen. Big problems have befallen the scientific environment as a whole, because the Japanese refused joint projects with Russian scientists. There is a Russophobic agenda in the media," the expert says.
"It is very sad that we had to cancel the visa-free regime for visiting the Kuril Islands for the Japanese. For many years we have been trying to build exemplary relationships in order to reduce the feeling of infringement among people who, for example, cannot come to the grave of relatives due to historical reasons. Unfortunately, Japan has taken the position it has taken. We were forced to include it in the list of unfriendly states with all the ensuing consequences," the expert believes.
"Despite the fact that the Japanese retained their participation in the Sakhalin project, they clearly stated that this is a temporary solution. Tokyo's rational thinking plays a greater role here: Japan has no desire to lose an established energy supply channel, since an alternative can only be found in the Middle East," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"I also have to state that our relations are at zero. Tokyo has embarked on a course of full solidarity with the West. Moreover, the beginning of its February 24 gave the Japanese ruling circles a reason to change their strategic course: on December 16, the country's government adopted a new national security strategy, which significantly changes the "pacifist" image of the state," Panov emphasizes.
"Russia also appeared on the pages of the document as one of the potential threats to Tokyo. Of course, we go after China and the DPRK, but the wording "the Russian Federation is of serious concern from the point of view of security" does not help to improve our relations. Japan plans to increase military spending to 2% of GDP," the expert points out.
"This is a very serious shift, because Japan is changing the economy to defense. Even under Shinzo Abe, Tokyo's goal was to achieve the most friendly relations with Moscow. We had common points of contact in economic terms. There was also a political subtext: Abe hoped that warm relations with Russia would not allow Moscow to go into an anti–Japanese alliance with China," the source emphasizes.
"Unfortunately, there are no prospects in our relations today. Restoring a normal and balanced dialogue will take several years. From a military point of view, there is no threat from Japan to the Far Eastern territories. However, the situation in the region is moving towards instability and lack of trust. The dark period has begun," Panov sums up.
Thus, the outgoing year has brought a large number of tests to the share of relations between Russia and the countries of the Indo-Pacific region. Unfortunately, quite often Moscow's attention is paid exclusively to China. However, the multipolar world that Moscow and Beijing are talking about is impossible without the common polyphony of the East, where the timbres of Russia and China, as well as Japan, India, South Korea and the ASEAN countries will be heard. The development of multilateral diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region, including with unfriendly countries, is the main task that the Russian Federation should set itself in 2023, responding to the challenges of the West in Asia.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov