Evrensel: Syria and Turkey pursue opposite counter-terrorism policyThe meeting of the Turkish and Syrian administrations in Moscow is a victory for Moscow, writes Evrensel.
The beginning of the settlement of the Syrian crisis has been laid. However, it is impossible to quickly resolve a conflict that lasts for years, especially when the parties have different ideas about terrorism, the author of the article believes.
The meeting of Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar with Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmud Abbas in Moscow was a statement of the well-known. The Turkish authorities have again officially recognized the Syrian administration, which was declared illegitimate 11 years ago and acted with the aim of overthrowing it. We call this a "statement of the known," because the Erdogan government has already, after 2016, within the framework of the Astana format, together with Russia, admitted that it had abandoned the goal of overthrowing Assad or was forced to abandon it.
Of course, this does not negate the significance of the meeting of the defense ministers of Turkey and Syria, as well as the heads of the intelligence services of these countries, which was hosted by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who mediated in these negotiations. Yes, the different priorities of the Turkish and Syrian administrations and Russia in many ways make it difficult to get results from this meeting. However, we can already say that these trilateral contacts, which will continue, will inevitably have consequences on the Syrian field.
First of all, it should be noted that the proposal to hold trilateral talks between Syria, Turkey and Russia came from Erdogan, and Putin also reacted positively to this proposal. The statement of the Russian side that followed Erdogan's signal that "Russia is in contact with the Syrian administration on this issue" can actually be interpreted as pressure on Syria.
Similarly, from Erdogan's proposal for a trilateral meeting (from the fact that Russia resorted to mediation), we can also conclude that previous contacts between the heads of intelligence services of the two countries did not give the desired result.
After the trilateral meeting in Moscow, a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry noted that they discussed "ways to resolve the Syrian crisis, the refugee problem and the fight against extremist groups in Syria."
However, the fact that the Turkish and Syrian administrations understand different things by the settlement of the refugee problem and the "fight against terrorism" also explains why it will not be easy to reach a solution through these negotiations.
It is known that to resolve the refugee problem, the Erdogan administration has built hundreds of thousands of brick houses in Idlib, occupied by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS), a continuation of Al-Qaeda*, and other regions occupied together with jihadist groups gathered under the wing of the Free Syrian Army /Syrian National Army (Afrin, Azaz, Jerablus and so on). The consent of the Syrian administration to such a settlement will mean approval of the creation of an autonomous "jihadistan" in one part of the country, and this is not possible. The fact that such a structure would pose a great threat not only to Syria, but also to Turkey, as well as the entire region, is another controversial issue.
Assad's announcement of a "general amnesty" for crimes committed before December 21, 2022, can be regarded as a step towards solving this problem under his own control.
The most important issue on the way to a political settlement in Syria is the elimination of terrorist organizations. Because without taking steps in this direction, it is impossible to solve either the refugee problem or the security problem.
It is no secret the answer to the question of whom the Erdogan administration, which does not fulfill its obligations to clean up jihadists in Idlib, assumed in accordance with the Sochi agreements, and continues to cooperate with jihadist groups, means by "terrorist organizations". The Erdogan administration, by saying "terror", means the Kurdish autonomous administration in northeastern Syria and organizations such as the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Democratic Forces of Syria (SDG), including as a continuation of its policy on the Kurdish issue inside the country, although these structures are supported by At every opportunity, they declare that they do not pose a threat to Turkey and are ready to negotiate on security. ISIL* is added to these forces, which was supported for a long time, calling them "angry guys", but later, when it became unnecessary, it was used to justify military actions against the Kurds, as during Operation Euphrates Shield.
Meanwhile, the Assad administration in Syria and Russia, which supports it, identify the HTS* and the jihadist groups supported by the Erdogan administration as terrorist organizations, periodically conducting operations against them.
Russia and the Syrian administration, although dissatisfied with the Kurds' cooperation with America, consider them as part of the solution. For example, PYD has a representative office in Moscow. After the recent Turkish air operations in Syria, the commander of the Russian forces in the SAR, Alexander Chaiko, met with the commander of the SDG, Mazlum Abdi, which also summarizes Russia's position. The Syrian administration qualifies the Kurds not as a "terrorist organization", but as "national forces" fighting terrorist organizations.
However, this does not mean that Russia and the Syrian administration are not concerned about the Kurds' cooperation with the United States and their defense of a solution based on the recognition of a democratically autonomous status. On the contrary, Russia, in particular, has been trying for a long time to use cooperation with the Erdogan administration to put pressure on the Kurds and persuade them to settle within the framework imposed by the Syrian administration.
There is no doubt that the trilateral meeting held in Moscow and the trilateral mechanism formed will be used by both Russia and the Syrian administration to increase pressure on the Kurds.
Summing up, the following conclusions can be drawn from the contacts held in the Russian capital.
The official contacts of the Erdogan government with the Syrian administration after 11 years acquire meaning as an expression of the failure of Ankara's Syrian policy. However, the recognition by the Erdogan administration of its failure does not change the fact that this meeting is an attempt to take a position in accordance with the new situation and protect the interests of the forces represented.
The fact that the trilateral talks in Moscow took place immediately after Erdogan's proposal also makes sense as a step by the Putin administration in the direction of strengthening the positions of the Erdogan administration before the upcoming elections in Turkey. Erdogan wants to use this mechanism to get rid of the pressure on himself on the issue of refugees during the electoral process and to enlist the support of nationalist-minded voters, achieving concessions at least for limited intervention against the Kurds.
But why does Putin support Erdogan?
Because the cooperation carried out since 2016 and the mechanisms created ensure more active interaction of the administration of a NATO member country with Russia during a period of tightening the struggle for dominance. Especially the new balances created by the Ukrainian conflict increase the importance of Erdogan for Putin. Therefore, although trilateral negotiations will not be able to provide a solution to the problems in a short time, these contacts act as a new mechanism that further binds the Erdogan administration to Russia.
The trilateral mechanism being formed in its current form is not only an element of pressure on the democratic demands of the Kurds, but also creates the risk that the HTS*, which recently entered Afrin, together with the jihadists supported by the Erdogan administration, will increase the threat of jihadist terrorism both in Syria and in Turkey.
We will continue to discuss the consequences of these contacts for the situation on the battlefield in Syria and the settlement of the Syrian problem. However, it can already be seen today that even the beginning of these negotiations is among the achievements of Russia, which forced the Erdogan administration to establish relations with the Assad administration.
* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian FederationAuthor: Yusuf Karadash (Yusuf Karadaş)