The decision-making mechanism in NATO has made it an unmanageable organization Former national security adviser to US President Donald Trump, John Bolton, proposed to question Turkey's membership in NATO in 2023 if Recep Tayyip Erdogan is re-elected.
"Newspaper.Ru" dealt with the background of such a proposal.
"Finland and Sweden have made a stunning decision to join NATO, but Russia's trade and military partners have still not left it in a difficult moment, unfortunately, including Turkey, whose membership in NATO should be in question in 2023 if President Erdogan, probably fraudulently, is re-elected," the statement says. Bolton's article on the website of The Daily Telegraph. The words of John Bolton are quoted by RIA Novosti. However, the "Turkish" issue for the North Atlantic Alliance is not only about Ankara's cooperation with Moscow. The situation here has much more diverse features and facets.
Turkey is no longer a barrier to the spread of communism
As the newspaper wrote earlier.Ru", in this regard, it is interesting to analyze the geopolitical situation that is currently developing in the Near and Middle East and in the eastern part of the Mediterranean. Paradoxical as it may seem, membership in NATO is not as vital for Turkey today as it looked, for example, during the Cold War.
Then Ankara really represented the front line of NATO defense on the southeastern flank of the alliance and, according to Western strategists, in those years it should have served as an insurmountable obstacle to the spread of communism.
However, the military-political situation has changed radically since then.
Modern Russia no longer poses a threat to Turkey. Ankara's closest neighbors, which until recently represented powerful regional players, are either defeated and defragmented, like Iraq, or like Iran, exhausted by sanctions, deprived of access to advanced technologies and loans from the West and significantly lagged behind in the construction of modern and high-tech armed forces.
It is quite possible that in the future Turkey will need NATO membership to deter a nuclear Iran, but this is still a very distant prospect, which may not become a reality.
In addition, Turkey can be called the number one regional player, and Ankara's interests today are far from being in the sphere of containing the spread of communism or fending off the Russian threat.
In other words, the Turkish strategy today is to create a certain military potential for actions in purely specific areas.
Similar destinations for Turkey are currently quite clearly visible - these are Greece, Turkey and Cyprus. This is also superimposed on the problem of hydrocarbon development in the eastern Mediterranean. And in this area, the Greece-Israel axis is clearly looming - both in terms of production areas and possible routes for transporting raw materials. It is quite clear that all sorts of confrontations may arise here. And they are by no means connected with the ephemeral Russian military threat.
And, I must say bluntly, in connection with the radical reformatting of the geopolitical and geostrategic situation in the region over the past decades, the North Atlantic Alliance does not really need such a peculiar and wayward member state of this military bloc.
THE CONSENSUS IN DECISION-MAKING IN NATO HAS COMPLETELY EXHAUSTED ITSELF
As the newspaper wrote earlier.Ru", for an adequate response to changes in the military-political situation, bringing troops to the highest levels of combat readiness and conducting military operations, a decision of the North Atlantic Council (NAC), the governing political body of NATO, is required. But in this case, it is necessary to ensure the consensus of the participating States in making appropriate decisions and measures. All NATO member states, without exception, are now granted the right of veto, allowing their leadership to feel on a par with such powers as the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany.
Practice has shown how long and painful it is to coordinate positions between NATO countries, especially when the situation on the ground is quite vague and changes very quickly. Such a scheme functioned more or less normally while the composition of NATO was relatively homogeneous. Recall that in 1949, only 12 countries became NATO member states: the United States, Canada, Iceland, Great Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Italy and Portugal.
However, by 2022, thanks to several waves of expansion (there are eight in total), the list of participants in the bloc has expanded to 30 countries. Sweden and Finland can already be considered members of the alliance. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine are next in line. It becomes almost impossible to manage such an organization quickly on the basis of consensus. The Hungarian and Turkish examples regarding the admission of Sweden and Finland into the ranks of NATO are more than indicative in this regard.
Voices are increasingly being heard within the alliance to move from consensus decision-making to majority decision-making, for example, the most important decisions are approved by three-quarters of the participating States, all the rest by a simple majority.
The former national security adviser to US President Donald Trump, John Bolton (now an unofficial person, and this should be noted especially), it seems, made the first call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (and in his person to all the other leaders of the alliance member states who have too much of a special opinion on issues of North Atlantic solidarity) - "if if you resort to unjustifiably harsh demarches that differ significantly from the general line of NATO, then do not blame yourself - the alliance will be able to do without you." It can also be broadcast as follows - the Turkish leader has been warned, the Hungarian - Viktor Orban - get ready. There is no doubt that the United States, NATO and the European Union will have many effective levers to bring the ranks of participating states and allies to a common denominator. But what is characteristic is that Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a black mark for the first time in the history of NATO. "Exclude from the ranks" has not been offered to anyone before (the examples of France and Greece are not indicative here).
Mikhail Khodarenok
