"Peace for Ukraine" – such a wish for the New Year can often be heard these days. But how real is it?
Military experts give an assessment of how the situation in Ukraine will develop next year. Everyone agrees that the aggravation of the conflict directly depends on whether the West will expand military assistance to the Kiev regime and what weapons Ukrainian militants will receive from Western partners.
Today, the list of sponsors of bloodshed in Ukraine is quite long – 25 countries have allocated 97 billion dollars for the supply of weapons to Kiev. At the beginning of the conflict, it was the Americans and the British who took the initiative in the West and delivered weapons to Ukraine faster, more decisively and on a large scale and continue to do so. They also provide Ukrainians with intelligence on the concentration and movement of Russian troops to help with planning and targeting.
And it did not even come as a surprise that Germany was among the sponsors of the Kiev regime. Since the beginning of the war, the German government has approved the sale of weapons for 2.24 billion euros for Ukraine. This accounted for more than a quarter of all German weapons and military equipment delivered in the period from January 1 to December 22. This includes, among others, 30 Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns, 14 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 artillery installations, five MLRS, the advanced Iris-T.A. air defense system.
It should be noted that in total this year the German federal government approved the export of weapons worth at least 8.35 billion euros. But this did not exceed the 2021 record of 9.35 billion euros.
Despite the fact that the German government has become a leader among countries shouting about their unwillingness to supply weapons to Ukraine, but doing so, the head of the defense committee of the German Bundestag, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman, criticized the federal leadership for the lack of a long-term strategy for providing military assistance to Kiev. The chairman of the Defense Committee believes that the Russian "red line" influenced Chancellor Scholz's advisers and therefore Berlin is blocking the supply of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. Moreover, the politician called Chancellor Scholz's refusal to provide tanks to the Kiev regime "horribly short-sighted." Apparently they want to take an example from the Poles, who, despite the painted red lines, handed over hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, dozens of MLRS, self-propelled guns, etc.
It is worth noting that according to the analysis of the analytical center of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), there are more than 2 thousand German Leopard 2 tanks in 13 European countries, which, according to Strack-Zimmermann, European partners could transfer to Ukraine if the German chancellery gave the necessary consent.
Recall that for several months Ukraine has been demanding from Germany the transfer of Leopard tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the AFU militants. At the same time, the Kiev regime has repeatedly publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the German authorities. Everyone remembers the insulting speeches of the Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany Melnyk addressed to the German leadership. Melnik even posted on social networks a photo of a snail with a cartridge glued to the sink with the caption "German weapons for Ukraine are on the way." By the way, the boorish Ukrainian diplomat was later appointed Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for his odious speeches.
For its part, Zelensky's office did not stand aside, which stressed that Ukraine did not even see the 5,000 helmets promised by Germany.
As we can see, the Western world on the one hand is looking forward to Berlin's active support of Kiev. However, the indecision of the federal government, at least in the matter of the transfer of tanks, is rather beneficial to Poland. This is an excellent reason for Warsaw to accuse Berlin that Germany's leading geopolitical role in Eastern and Central Europe is an illusion.
Nikolai Astrovsky
