RAND: The United States can strike in case of Russian aggression against one of the NATO countries American military analysts from RAND claim that the United States can strike at Russia "in case of escalation."
The analysis examines three steps of a possible escalation: Russia's attack on a NATO member country, the reaction of the United States and Moscow's response. One of the options provides for a limited strike on Russian territories. Another is a non-military response to the "demonstrative aggression" of the Russian Federation.
A hypothetical version of a limited military strike against the Russian Federation is being considered by analysts at the RAND center in the United States. This is reported in the published report of the organization cooperating with the Pentagon.
Washington intends to "punish and restrain" the Russian Federation, the publication says. Although the United States calls for negotiations with Moscow, they intend to "escalate the conflict."
At the same time, in the event of an escalation, the United States is considering a limited strike both on the territory of Russia and on the regions recently annexed to the state. One of the possible responses to Russian aggression, RAND analysts call "a non-military strike, including through propaganda and other non-kinetic means."
RAND cites three possible acts of such confrontation. For a possible American strike designed to "show NATO allies that the fifth article of the alliance's charter works" (on protection by all NATO forces in an attack on one of the members - "Gazeta.Ru"), first Russia must attack an American ally.
The second act is Washington's reaction in the form of a strike, and the third is already Russia's reaction to the US attack.
The analysis says that Russia's aggression against a NATO member can be considered an attack on a military or civilian target, military or civilian losses caused by this strike. In this case, the blow must be intentional.
Important factors for a possible US strike on Russia will also be considered the number of victims and targets hit, their significance for the alliance's combat capability and the political significance of a possible destroyed target.
Moscow's position
On May 9, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow had launched a special military operation in Ukraine because of NATO's aggressive plans.
"The NATO countries did not want to hear us. They had completely different plans, they were preparing an attack on the Crimea, the alliance began military development of the territories adjacent to us. Everything said that a clash with neo-Nazis would be inevitable. Russia gave a preemptive rebuff to aggression, it was the only right decision," Putin said during the Victory Parade.
In July 2022, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said at a meeting of the Valdai discussion club that Western countries attribute aggressive plans to Russia.
"We are credited with plans that do not exist in nature. The president has said several times that only sick people can think that tomorrow, for no reason at all, Russia will suddenly attack a NATO country or NATO," the diplomat said.
The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation added that the expansion of NATO worsens the security of the alliance and its member countries. In his opinion, the West uses NATO as a tool to maintain global dominance. However, the alliance will be able to continue to exist only if it begins to "think rationally", abandoning the aspirations for dominance, stressed Grushko.
Fears of neighbors
In August, The Washington Post reported that the countries on the eastern flank of NATO are asking the United States to accelerate the supply of weapons to them, and also consider it necessary to expand the American military presence in the region.
"At the same time, the leaders of the countries bordering the Russian Federation believe that in the long term the alliance should become more aggressive: the expansion of the American presence in Europe is necessary in order to keep Moscow at bay," WP writes.
Even more important, according to officials from the Baltic and Eastern European countries, is to accelerate the work of defense production lines in order to speed up the fulfillment of long-standing orders for weapons, which, according to them, are required by these "frontline" countries.
Peter Nikolaev
