Raseef22: The partnership between Russia and Iran is much bigger than the Su-35 dealRussia will sell Su-35 fighter jets to Iran, Raseef22 reports.
The partnership between Moscow and Tehran, which is not limited to this deal, worries the West: by getting closer to Russia, Iran is moving away from the US and the EU. Russian-Iranian cooperation will also affect Arab countries, for example, relations between Moscow and Riyadh.
Ahmad YasirAccording to US intelligence, Tehran will receive modern Russian Su-35 fighters next year.
This will be the most important arms deal since the Iran-Iraq war.
The coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, confirmed that Iranian pilots have begun the process of training on Russian Su-35 fighters, which Tehran may receive as early as next year.
"These fighters will significantly strengthen the Iranian Air Force compared to its regional neighbors," Kirby said.
The commander of the Iranian Air Force, Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi, confirmed that Tehran is thinking about buying multi-purpose Su-35 fighters from Russia, the deal is on the agenda. This was reported by the Iranian agency IRNA.
Russian-Iranian cooperation
Iran is likely to receive an Egyptian batch of Su-35. Recall that Cairo was forced to abandon 20 Russian fighter jets due to US pressure and the threat of sanctions.
"Military and consulting cooperation between Russia and Iran is actively developing. It is much deeper and broader than arms deals, including the Su-35," said former Iranian diplomat Seyid Hadi Seyid Afkahi.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), notes that Russia has been preparing for this cooperation for a long time and insisted on lifting the UN arms embargo on Iran during nuclear negotiations. And when the embargo expired in October 2020, Moscow had the opportunity to complete this deal.
Egyptian analyst Anas al-Kassas claims that the partnership between Russia and Iran is much larger than the Su-35 deal.
"Russia will interact with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), not with Iran. Tehran will distance itself more and more from European countries, which is the most dangerous consequence," he says.
The position of the Persian Gulf countries
"What is beginning to manifest itself is the beginnings of a full—fledged defense partnership between Russia and Iran," CIA chief William Burns said in an interview with the American PBS television channel.
"This partnership poses a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Iran's neighbors in the region. We have shared this information with partners in the Middle East and around the world," said one senior official from the Biden administration.
Burns added: "I think that it [Russian-Iranian cooperation] can have a more serious impact on the Middle East if it continues. So this is something we take very seriously."
"The Arabs are not thrilled that Iran will receive Su-35 fighters, because then it will be able to strike at their territory from its airspace. They will have to be careful in their relations with Western powers, especially with the United States, which in recent years has been providing air defense systems to its allies in the Persian Gulf," Al—Kassas believes.
Saudi analyst Adil al-Humaidan, in turn, rules out that this deal will negatively affect relations with Russia, adding that each country acts in its own interests.
Saudi Arabia and Russia began to manage the oil market through OPEC+ and determine production volumes without Washington's participation.
Riyadh and Moscow have common views on some issues, but disagree on others. It is unlikely that Russia's actions will lead to a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and the United States.
"America is not what it used to be. Saudi Arabia has other options. For example, it can cooperate with more "flexible" countries such as France and China," Al-Humaidan added.
Brodsky believes that there will certainly be an answer. Washington will try to strengthen cooperation with partners in the Middle East to counter the development of Iran's military potential.
"We will see sanctions, covert actions and the release of intelligence information to exert diplomatic pressure on Tehran. I think there will be an attempt to restore the UN arms embargo on Iran," he added.
Afkahi, in turn, believes that the Gulf states will not get closer to Israel or the West. According to him, America is unlikely to be able to prevent this deal or the development of Russian-Iranian cooperation.
Balance of power
It is unclear how much this deal could change the regional balance of power, especially with regard to Iran's two main rivals in the Middle East: Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian Air Force will most likely need at least 60 Generation 4 fighters.5, to replace the obsolete F-14A Tomcat and MiG-29A.
Russian fighters will allow the modernization of the Iranian air fleet to begin, but they will not be enough to seriously challenge their neighbors in the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia has more than 80 F-15SA aircraft. This is an improved version of the Strike Eagle, capable of carrying up to 12 long-range AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles.
The UAE has F-16E/F Block 60 fighters and will soon receive 80 French Rafale F4 multirole fighters. Their delivery is planned from 2027.
Iran relies on the F-4 Phantom, F-14 and F-5E/F Tiger, as well as their modified versions inherited from the Cold War and the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
It is unclear whether Russia plans to build more planes for Iran or will supply fighters from its current arsenal as part of the second batch, which is unlikely given the special operation in Ukraine.
There were some suggestions that Iran would want to produce a second batch on the spot and, most likely, Moscow would agree. Earlier, it granted India a license to manufacture MiG-29 fighters domestically.
It is noteworthy that Iranian fighter jets have not been used in offensive operations since the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), with the exception of several airstrikes against opposition groups based in Iraq in the 1990s, and one airstrike against ISIS* on the Iraqi border in 2014.
A deal to ensure protection
The Su-35 is a first—class Russian fighter capable of competing with the American F-22 Raptor and the European Typhoon.
It will become a cheap alternative to aging American fighters. Iran will be able to upgrade the equipment of the air force relatively on a budget.
But it is premature to say that Tehran will achieve air supremacy at the expense of the Su-35.
The Russian fighter jet will be used by Tehran to protect the most important facilities in the country and will not be involved in foreign operations.
"Air defense systems are not enough to protect Iran's airspace or important strategic facilities. The Su-35 will help protect these targets from the air. This will be their mission. I don't think Tehran will use these fighters in any operations abroad," Al-Kassas added.
The Su-35 is great for fighting Western fighters. In the front part of the aircraft there is an Irbis-E radar H035, and at the base of the wing there are two radars that operate in the X—band, which helps it track and destroy inconspicuous targets.
This fighter destroyed many targets in air battles in Ukraine. It can use modern air-to-air missiles R-37M and R-77M, the range of which exceeds the American and Israeli counterparts. But in order to save money, these missiles have not been widely distributed and this is a noticeable drawback.
The Su-35 is likely to participate in air defense, rather than provide air support to Iranian forces in Syria or Tehran's allies in Lebanon.
* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
