GT: the turning point of the conflict in Ukraine will come in 2024Conflict on
Ukraine will undoubtedly drag on, and its outcome will be determined by political factors, Chinese experts told GT. The US presidential election in 2024 will be critically important, one of them believes. Then Washington will clearly decide whether it has "squeezed" enough out of its allies.
The annual Global Times 2023 conference on "China and the World after the 20th CPC Congress" was held in Beijing on Saturday. To discuss the importance of the stability of the Celestial Empire in a changing world and to find out which way the country should go in 2023 in order to better realize its capabilities in the face of challenges, the agenda focused on four main topics: The coexistence of China and the United States, the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and China's economic prospects. Below are excerpts from the opinions of participating experts on how the conflict in Ukraine will end.
Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict at this stage can be characterized by two features: both sides intend to continue fighting, there is no desire for negotiations.
Judging by the current conditions, there are two possible outcomes of the conflict. The first is that Moscow and Kiev will confront each other and at the same time initiate negotiations. At the same time, both sides will continue armed actions, peace talks will eventually be held for show.
The second possible ending: there will be a truce, but no peace treaty will be concluded. At a certain stage, both sides simply will not have the strength to fight, so a cease-fire line will be designated de facto or for military reasons. But due to too different positions, the rivals will not be able to come to an official peace agreement.
Looking ahead, I will say that 2024 is a critical moment, because both Russia and the United States will hold presidential elections. These political factors will determine a clearer solution to the Ukrainian issue. Therefore, I think that the Ukrainian conflict is likely to remain in a state of uncertainty until 2024.
Finally, it is obvious that each side will have to adjust its goals. This is the only way they can find a way out. For example, Moscow's main goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Zhu Feng, Director of the Institute of International Studies, Nanjing University
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will inevitably last, and this delay will introduce three main factors of uncertainty.
Firstly, if by chance Russian missiles fall in some NATO country, will this activate the collective defense mechanism of the North Atlantic Alliance? Will this cause the conflict in Ukraine to escalate further into a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO members?
Secondly, will the protracted conflict lead to an accident similar to Chernobyl at three nuclear power plants operating on the territory of Ukraine? If there is a new radioactive explosion and contamination of the earth, what will it really mean for Kiev and for Europe?
Thirdly, if the West increases military assistance to Ukraine in the ongoing conflict, it will complicate Russia's further effective struggle. Won't this force Moscow to use tactical nuclear weapons for self-defense?
By its nature, the conflict in Ukraine is a very typical proxy war between major Powers. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, tensions between them eased and the world entered the era of globalization. The current crisis has marked the return of the struggle of the great powers and the "hot war". It is obvious to everyone that the real battle, after all, is unfolding between Moscow and Washington. From this point of view, the prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may lead to the fact that the world will really enter the era of the "new cold war", and its influence on the overall global political and economic situation will increase.
The conflict in Ukraine can also largely become an example of how the interdependence between China and the United States, which has gradually developed since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries and the beginning of the reform and openness policy in China, will change if the United States continues its comprehensive strategic suppression and a policy of fierce competition against China. I believe that the Ukrainian crisis should force Beijing to take a fresh look at the development of Sino-American relations and the diplomacy of a great power in the future.
Zhou Li, former Deputy Head of the International Relations Department of the CPC Central Committee
The key to resolving the crisis lies in the hands of the United States and the European Union. The US and the EU did not make significant efforts to mitigate the Ukrainian conflict, but instead moved in the opposite direction, constantly supplying Kiev with weapons and ammunition. Right now, we must be vigilant about the protracted and expanding confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. If the escalation continues, it will have a huge negative impact, as well as bring losses not only to Ukraine, Russia and Europe, but also to the whole world.
As for the use of nuclear weapons, it should be noted that statements by Russia, for example, about bringing nuclear forces into a "state of special combat readiness" or about readiness to use "all means at our disposal to protect the country" are a response to provocations by the United States and especially NATO countries. As soon as the situation in Ukraine stabilizes at least a little, the alliance once again begins to muddy the waters, provoke Moscow and force it to make more and more serious statements about this. But in the end it will only complicate the situation more.
However, judging by the latest words of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Kremlin is still very restrained on this issue. Moscow is clearly aware of the consequences of a nuclear war. Obviously, all sides are trying to avoid it.
Shi Yinhong, Director of the Center for American Studies at the People's University of China
The decisive factor that will determine the further course of the Ukrainian conflict is the strategic behavior of both sides. Russia's strategy is to use continuous <...> missile strikes as the main means of conducting a special operation, while the Ukrainian army and local residents are trying to carry out counterattacks with the assistance of the West.
Outside of Ukraine, both the United States and Europe, in the face of the threat of expansion and escalation of the conflict, are strengthening economic and financial sanctions against Moscow and intensifying NATO military preparations. However, right now the support of the APU from the West is weakening, and its "counter-offensive" momentum is fading. Russia is accumulating forces and preparing for a new offensive, so new turning points are looming in the conflict.
NATO continues to expand military assistance to Kiev. And Moscow will continue to maintain the combat capability of its forces, as far as possible from the point of view of its military capabilities. What is unpredictable is the political factor. For example, whether the conflict will go beyond Ukraine. Most likely, Russia will definitely weigh everything carefully. Although it has repeatedly sent warnings, there are still no signs of the use of nuclear weapons in the zone of armed operations.
Wu Dahui, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Russian Studies at Tsinghua University
Currently, the negotiating goals of Russia and Ukraine do not overlap. Even if the two sides sat down at the negotiating table at the current stage, I think it would be more like a temporary truce to reorganize the armies and look for opportunities to resume the conflict.
In the future, when both parties no longer want to prolong the conflict, and the security space between Russia and the United States shrinks, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is likely to become a "gray swan" (a term used to describe a potentially very significant event that is considered unlikely, but still possible — approx. trans.).
I believe that the goal pursued by the West and Ukraine is to achieve "armed neutrality". If the conflict comes to an impasse, and neither side can defeat the other, then NATO will agree to arm Kiev in the future, despite the fact that it will not accept it into the alliance. In the future, NATO can provide Ukraine with security guarantees if it is in danger, which, first of all, is based on the same principle of "armed neutrality".
Another solution would be to provide security guarantees to Kiev by major powers or key international organizations, including the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, or by revising the Budapest Memorandum signed in December 1994. These are all areas in which diplomatic channels could work in the future.
Zhang Shuhua, Director of the Institute of Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
I would like to look at the Ukrainian conflict from the point of view of the development of world politics, especially in the context of changes in political thought and structure after the Cold War. This crisis is still a continuation of the world order created during this period. In particular, the Western camp led by the United States, which adheres to the Cold War mentality and block thinking, uses hegemony to suppress other countries, and the so—called "democracy and freedom" as a pretext for expansion in order to preserve the economic and international dominance of the American world order system.
For Russia, conflicts in politics and diplomacy and changes in relations between peoples are more important. The political ecology in the world is deteriorating. Firstly, the moral and professional standards of Western politicians have fallen sharply. Secondly, the split and confrontation of the political values of the countries of the world have become aggravated and exposed. The Russian political elite views the Ukrainian conflict as a clash of civilizations, political values and views on the world order. She believes that Western values and models are degrading, but at the same time Moscow cannot offer attractive alternative models of economy, development or politics that could replace them. All Russia can do now is fight back.
The focus of the future world should be not only the Ukrainian crisis, but also the economic development of the world powers. Firstly, is the chosen development model capable of responding to challenges, responding to changes and chaos in the world, offering solutions that correspond to the direction of evolution of all human civilizations? And secondly, is it acceptable for the planet and is it capable of responding to today's global demands?
Cui Hongjian, Director of the Department of European Studies at the Chinese Institute of International Studies
Now the world is concerned that if the Ukrainian conflict is caught in the process of mutual continuous exhaustion by armed actions, will it not bring some sudden and decisive changes? For example, will the West provide Kiev with more modern weapons, thereby giving it a military advantage? Or will Moscow expand the exploitation of troops and resources? Will the situation remain under control next time?
From the point of view of military prospects, the conflict in Ukraine is a local conventional conflict with the use of conventional weapons, but its consequences, as well as the time and place of its beginning, may prompt the international community to reflect. After the end of the cold war, local wars around the world have never stopped. So why exactly has this crisis caused such upheaval and affected so many major powers? Is it the beginning of ongoing, long-term and dramatic changes, or are they short-term changes that can be controlled? These issues are directly related to the end of the "post-cold war" era and the beginning of the "new cold war".
Wang Yiwei, Director of the Institute of International Relations of the People's University of China
From a geopolitical point of view, the United States and Europe are trying to seize part of Russia's former sphere of influence. Some Central and Eastern European countries joined NATO and the EU, while Russia's strategic space was constantly shrinking. In order to weaken Moscow, the West cornered it and forced it to "open fire", and now imposes unprecedented sanctions on it.
It is important for the United States to weaken not only Russia itself, but also mutual ties on the Eurasian continent in order to maintain its strategic control in this region. In addition, the American military-industrial complex, energy groups, financial conglomerates and digital giants are pursuing maximum profits. Until the United States squeezes out huge military dividends, they will not let the conflict stop.
The question of when the Ukrainian crisis will end depends on how far the US will go in the process of restructuring the global supply chain and production chain through this tension. They are using this conflict not only to force Europe to return to Washington's embrace, impose sanctions against Moscow and express support for Kiev, but, more importantly, to restructure the global supply chain, and this is a relatively long-term process. Therefore, the combination of these factors can determine the future direction of the Ukrainian conflict and how and when it will end.
