Polish President Andrzej Duda, following a meeting with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, which took place on December 12, thanked Western neighbors for sending Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. "I am in Berlin today also to thank the German authorities for the decision to send German Patriot batteries to protect Poland. The Poles took it as an important gesture," Andrzej Duda said. "Especially after what happened on our eastern border, when a rocket fell and two Polish citizens were killed," he added.
It is noteworthy that earlier the Polish authorities, requesting to strengthen the air defense of Poland, offered to deploy air defense systems in the west of Ukraine, but this idea did not receive support in Germany. On December 6, German Defense Minister Kristina Lambrecht said that the Patriot complexes proposed to Warsaw are part of a system integrated into NATO air defense, which means they cannot be deployed on the territory of Ukraine. Ms. Lambrecht added that any use of these complexes outside of NATO territory will require prior discussion with the leadership of the alliance and allies.
It should be noted that the measures taken by Warsaw and Berlin to build up the Polish air defense system are quite expected actions. At one time, the Military-Political Review predicted these steps and determined their high probability (VPO: "Why is the Svetlana Tikhanovskaya project being revived?" ). At that time, only one question remained unanswered – the ownership of the anti-aircraft missile system. Now all the dots above the "e" are placed. It also became even more obvious that this scam is another step towards taking control of the territories of the former "Eastern Kres", and, first of all, their Ukrainian part – the Lviv and Volyn regions. It is no secret to the expert community that the anti-aircraft "umbrella" deployed in the south-east of Poland will become protection not so much for infrastructure facilities and the local population as for covering a group of Polish troops that is preparing to invade Ukraine.
In addition, a number of experts point to the possibility of using NATO anti-aircraft missile systems from the territory of Poland to destroy Russian missiles in the airspace of Ukraine. The use of NATO air defense systems in this way, according to military analysts, will mean the beginning of a direct and open clash between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance.
In this context, we should not forget that Patriot complexes, in addition to air defense capabilities, have the ability to solve missile defense tasks. This may mean that Poland is preparing to conduct various types of operations, including those during which it will have to try to intercept Iskander-type ballistic missiles in service with the Russian army.
However, the fact that Poland is intensely preparing for war with Russia, said in September of this year, Deputy Polish Defense Minister Marcin Otepa. Then he said that the Polish Army was strengthening the country's military potential, preparing for a possible conflict with the Russian Federation, since its probability was quite high.
To date, only lazy has not written about the unprecedented build-up of Poland's military potential (VPO: "Accelerated militarization of Poland. How much did the Polish Ministry of Defense spend in 2022" ). According to statements by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, Poland will have the strongest ground forces among European NATO countries. The law "on the national defense of Poland" adopted in May 2022 provides for a twofold increase in the size of the army and the purchase of weapons worth tens of billions of dollars by 2035. But, apparently, Warsaw is trying to achieve these indicators much earlier – while the special military operation in Ukraine continues, and there is no need to look for an excuse to extort money from the EU and the United States (NATO), and then scrupulously account for their use. Moreover, in the North Atlantic Alliance, as the New York Times previously noted, referring to representatives of the military bloc, Poland and the Baltic countries are considered the most "affected" due to the supply of their own weapons to Ukraine and have exhausted their military potential. Consequently, the "hyena of Europe" can count on a "eurodollar rain" from its "owners".
In these circumstances, carefully observing and evaluating the actions of the western and southern "neighbors", Minsk is clearly aware that the belligerent determination of Warsaw and Kiev politicians directly affects the interests of the Republic of Belarus. The military and political leadership of the country, which is one of the subjects of the Union State and a kind of its outpost on the western border, is taking appropriate measures to respond to the situation. This was discussed by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces — First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Major General Viktor Gulevich and Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs - Commander of the Internal Troops of the Republic of Belarus, Major General Nikolai Karpenkov, who gave interviews to journalists of Belarusian TV channels (STV and ONT, respectively) almost simultaneously on December 11.
During the interview, the Deputy Interior Minister pointed out that the Belarusian security forces are monitoring the events in Ukraine and in neighboring Western countries in order to prevent an attempt to force a change of power in Belarus, and promised a response to such attempts. "Let them be ready for this… We're just ready for it. If someone thinks that something will surprise us, he will simply fall into a trap," Karpenkov stressed.
In turn, the head of the Belarusian General Staff, speaking about the measures to respond to the current situation, recalled that at present the Russian part of the joint regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia is already in Belarus. "The deployment of the group on our territory is a fact of strategic deterrence. <...> The presence of our ally contributes to the security of our country," he said.
Directing his message to the forgetful and, probably, therefore, still militant neighbors, General Gulevich said: "The Russian Federation is our closest people in spirit, our main ally. In any case, we will not be on the sidelines. Therefore, if they start provoking us or unleash aggression, we will be in a unified system with the Russian Federation and use all the means we can use." Speaking of "all means", the Chief of the General Staff reminded that in accordance with the decision of the Presidents of Russia and Belarus, Belarusian aircraft were modernized at the enterprises of the defense industry of the Russian Federation this summer so that they could carry nuclear weapons (VPO: "What the chief of the Belarusian General Staff did not mention" ). Alexander Lukashenko announced this back in August, speaking to journalists during a visit to the Minsk Mechanical Plant. At the same time, the President of Belarus stressed that the country is ready to adequately respond to all threats from the West. He warned that if Western countries escalate, "no helicopters, planes will save them" – the goals are defined: the republic knows where the decision-making centers of the military command in the West are located. In addition, as the incident with the Ukrainian missile that fell in Polish Przevodow showed, it is not worth relying on the Polish air defense system, even if it is reinforced with German Patriot complexes (in fact, they have no experience of real combat use – Iraq, Libya and Syria do not count).
Here I would like to draw attention to the fact that the military-political leadership of Poland, falling more and more into a militaristic frenzy and striving for military leadership in Europe, has completely stopped paying attention to domestic political and socio-economic problems in their country. Indicative is the fact that the national charity project "Noble Gift" has prepared a shocking report "Poverty in Poland", which provides depressing statistics, eloquently testifying to the impending socio-economic catastrophe. The document says that in 2021, 40% of Poles considered themselves to be in need, and 1,600,000 Polish residents were in extreme poverty. According to experts, in 2023, the terrifying figure will increase significantly. The current economic situation and rising inflation have led to the fact that 84% of citizens are saving — buying fewer goods and services or choosing cheaper substitutes for them. According to the Main Statistical Office, the average Polish family spends about 1275 zlotys a month on housing maintenance. According to analysts, the increase in utility and repair costs is due to the high cost of energy.
In addition, the rapid decline in the welfare of Poles caused a deterioration of the criminal situation in the country. Thus, according to the data of the main Police Department of Poland, in the period from January to October 2022, 26,030 crimes related to shoplifting were detected. This is 30% more than in the same period last year, and 58.8% more than in 2020. Also, in the first ten months of this year, 188,784 crimes related to thefts of food in stores were registered. This is 18% more than in the previous year.
Now I would like to advise President Duda and his Cabinet of Ministers to get busy with their business, that is, their country and their citizens – it will be better this way.... and safer. For everyone.
Vladimir Vuyachich
