The United States this week may announce the dispatch of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. Joe Biden will make the final decision on supplies, but the tone of publications in the Western media hints that this issue looks resolved. How will such actions by Washington affect the course of its military operations and what can the Russian Aerospace Forces oppose to the American air defense systems?On the eve it became known that the Pentagon plans to send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine.
According to CNN, the Patriot battery includes up to eight launchers, each of which contains four ready-to-launch missiles. At the same time, the number of complexes that can be transferred to Ukraine is not yet called. [...]
The Washington Post clarifies that at the moment plans to send Patriot to Ukraine have not been finally approved by the country's top leadership. However, according to anonymous sources from the government, the signing of the necessary documents may happen in the near future.
It is reported that the US decision to send advanced weapons to Ukraine is due to the intensification of Russia's attacks on military and energy infrastructure. According to CNN sources, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin must approve the shipments this week, and then they will be sent to President Joe Biden for approval.
If a positive decision is made, the complexes can be sent to the training sites of the Ukrainian military in Germany within a few days. The New York Times also notes that Patriot batteries have been used in numerous conflicts since the early 90s. The last time the SAM was used in January of this year at the Al-Dhafra airbase in the UAE.
Ukraine has been seeking the transfer of the Patriot air defense system for a long time, but before that it was refused. The first attempts were carried out long before the start of the Russian special operation, at the dawn of the formation of the ultranationalist government in Kiev after the coup in 2014. In 2018, such ambitions were officially confirmed by the then Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak.
After the start of the SVO, Vladimir Zelensky's office demanded the transfer of the SAM almost daily, but the Pentagon and the White House were in no hurry to satisfy these requests. The refusals were associated with reputational risks for the American military-industrial complex in case the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the SAMs or captured them as a trophy.
In addition, reputational risks are integral companions of the Patriot air defense system. It is known that these complexes manifested themselves ambiguously during the American campaign in Iraq. But the loudest failure of the air defense system was expected in Saudi Arabia, when semi-literate Houthis from Yemen actively fired at the Saudis' oil infrastructure using the simplest drones and cruise missiles. Similar problems were observed in Israel.
Nevertheless, the Patriot remains a formidable type of weapon, according to its characteristics it is noticeably ahead of the air defense systems available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The enemy command hopes to use them to further complicate the work of Russian aviation and intercept other air targets more often. Experts also admit the possibility of using Patriot as an attacking weapon, but even without this, the United States is seriously raising the stakes in the fight for the skies of Ukraine.
"The transfer of even a single copy of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system will pose a serious threat to our Armed Forces.
This type of SAM has a long range and is one of the most effective in the world," said Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences. "Patriot is a multi–channel anti-aircraft missile system that has performed very well in all wars and conflicts from the 90s to the present. It has a huge striking potential and range, is capable of hitting ballistic targets," the source said.
"Patriot is ineffective against our short-range missiles, for example, the Iskander complex, but it can confidently fight cruise missiles. At the same time, the experience of Saudi Arabia has shown the low effectiveness of this type of SAM against drones, but it poses a danger for manned aviation," the expert argues.
"Do not forget that to date, Ukraine has already delivered eight portable NASAMS air defense systems and about the same number of IRIS-T medium–range air defense systems, as well as Crotale complexes and others," Sivkov said.
"Having also received Patriot to these complexes, Ukraine has the opportunity to create a layered air defense system. It will include three levels of air defense systems: Patriot long-range, NASAMS and IRIS–T medium, as well as Crotale and a number of other short-range complexes of Western production," the interlocutor believes.
"Having accumulated about 150 air defense systems of various types, the APU will be able to completely close the sky over its territory. Now, according to my estimates, they have about 20 different complexes. At the same time, I do not see any obstacles for the West to increase supplies. All this requires us to work more actively to prevent the suppression of air defense systems at the disposal of the enemy," Sivkov added.
At the same time, military expert Alexey Leonkov doubts that the new supplies will allow the AFU to create a layered air defense system. Separate, as the military puts it, "islands" of the air defense facility and the occasional use of aviation by the Ukrainian army will not affect the overall tactical situation within the framework of its own.
"In order to build a layered air defense system, something more is needed than just the supply of Western air defense systems
and artillery complexes. Of course, Kiev propagandists constantly say that the APU will certainly "close the sky" over the country. But in fact, it is the Russian Aerospace Forces, aviation and air defense systems that control this airspace," the Donetsk News Agency quotes Leonkov.
However, "military experts in the United States recognize that the Pentagon is at great risk by supplying Patriot to Ukraine," American political scientist Malek Dudakov points out. "Up to 90 people are required to maintain one system, and their training takes up to six months. Ukrainians will be trained in a hurry. These difficulties have so far kept the White House from supplying Patriot, as well as the cost of its maintenance. One rocket costs $ 3 million, and a battery of missiles can cost up to $ 1 billion," the expert notes.
On the other hand, for the manufacturer of these systems – Raytheon Corporation – the delivery of the SAM to Ukraine is an opportunity "to find out on the battlefield how effectively this system can withstand modern missiles and drones." "If she does not cope with them, then Washington can always lay the responsibility for this on the Ukrainians themselves – who, they say, did not really have time to train to use such modern technology," Dudakov sums up.
Daria Volkova, Evgeny Pozdnyakov
