A little more than a year has passed since the change of power in the countryA year after the radical Islamist movement "Taliban" (banned in the Russian Federation) came to power, the situation in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly tense.
The withdrawal of the foreign military contingent, the suspension of development projects, the collapse of the Afghan State, the economic crisis, sanctions and many other events of the last year have led to the complete collapse of the Afghan economy, plunging millions of people into poverty and causing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, the Taliban, as the de facto ruling power in Afghanistan, are facing growing internal fragmentation, desertion among the rank-and-file members of the movement, the depletion of their financial resources, thriving organized crime, the presence of foreign extremist and terrorist organizations on the territory of Afghanistan and the denial of international recognition.
FOUR FAULT LINESGiven the security situation and the political dynamics on the ground, several major trends are emerging in Afghanistan, fraught with potential consequences – regional and global.
This is fragmentation within the Taliban movement. This is the strengthening of regional and global terrorist groups. This is a growing resistance to the Taliban's power. This is a thriving shadow economy and drug trafficking, as well as large-scale movements of people.
There are currently four major fault lines within the Taliban movement:
1. Tribal fragmentation. The historical rivalry between the two main Pashtun tribes – the Durani and Gilzai – is increasingly evident within the Taliban, creating a serious split in the movement.
The foundation of the Taliban movement was laid in 1994 by natives of the Durani tribe – Mullah Mohammad Omar and his followers. Gilzai tribesmen joined them later, mostly joining the Taliban through the Haqqani family and other field commanders.
Although the rivalry between the Taliban from the Durani and Gilzai tribes existed from the very beginning, it escalated significantly after the return of the Taliban to power. This aggravation has already caused political discontent and violent clashes within the movement. Given the historical roots of tribal rivalry, there is a high probability that in the future this confrontation will become a serious problem that may lead to political inconsistency and structural disintegration within the movement.
2. Fragmentation at the level of fractions. This kind of disunity is due to tribal fragmentation within the Taliban, associated with a structural split between the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation) – the two main factions within the movement.
The Haqqani Network existed even before the appearance of the Taliban movement (at least two decades). Although it joined the Taliban in the early months of the movement's inception in the mid-1990s, the Haqqanis actually retained autonomy and their strongholds in eastern Afghanistan.
Now both factions are trying to occupy key positions in the Taliban government. The Quetta Shura, which represents the majority in it, wants to get the largest share of power. While the Haqqanis claim that they deserve preferences, since the members of the network are more active militarily. It was the Haqqanis who led several major attacks on the forces of the international coalition and government forces of the previous pro-Western regime. Over the past two decades, their suicide bombers have carried out the most large-scale terrorist attacks on the territory of Afghanistan.
3. Ideological fragmentation. Sharp disagreements between hardliners and moderate Taliban leaders further strengthen the split within the movement. Such figures as Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzadeh, Mullah Mohammad Hassan, Mullah Yakub, Qayyum Zakir, Sadr Ibrahim, Qari Fasihudden, Mullah Tajmir Javad and others are hardliners. They believe that the Taliban should remain faithful to the strict interpretation of Islam, exclude from the government all those who do not belong to the movement and be ready to adopt puritanical laws and regulations.
On the other hand, such representatives of the movement's leadership as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Mullah Amir Khan Muttaki, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, Mullah Abdul Salam Hanafi adhere to a moderate position. They advocate inclusive government and moderate political views, arguing that these two factors will help the movement gain international recognition. This difference of opinion led to a serious split in the leadership of the Taliban.
4. Finally, structural fragmentation. The final crack in the Taliban movement arose due to disagreements between the leadership of the movement and some middle-level commanders.
For many years, the core of the Taliban war machine was the "delgai" – units of 70 to 90 fighters, led by the "delgai meshr", or commander.
Being under the overall command of the top leadership, the Delgai Meshr have always enjoyed independence in decision-making at the operational and tactical levels and had direct links with foreign terrorist groups.
Since the Taliban came to power more than a year ago, there have been many disagreements between these commanders and the leadership of the movement. The Delgai claim that they have borne the real burden of the war for years, and that the leadership of the movement, spoiled by a luxurious lifestyle, has been abandoning the global mission of "jihad" since coming to power in Afghanistan. This led to serious disobedience of orders and orders issued by the top leadership of the Taliban.
In order to bring Delgai under control, the Taliban leaders tried to transform the structure of the movement and integrate Delgai into the formal structures of the Ministries of Defense and Interior. However, the commanders openly refused such integration and vowed to remain in their former structures.
FOUR POTENTIAL THREATSThe consequences of fragmentation within the Taliban movement can be very different for Afghanistan and its near and far environs.
Confrontation within the movement can provoke four potential threats:
1. Political instability. Fragmentation within the Taliban may lead to further internal political instability in Afghanistan, creating a more favorable environment for the development of radicalism, terrorism and organized crime. Given the cross-border nature of these activities, there is a high probability of undesirable consequences for other States in the region and beyond.
2. Armed conflict. Disintegration entails a high risk of armed clashes within various groups – which, in turn, can worsen socio-economic conditions. This will lead both to an increase in migration of the Afghan population abroad and to the spread of violence in the region and beyond.
In addition, a violent conflict is highly likely to lead to mass killings, the death of innocent people, war crimes and large-scale violations of human rights. Which may eventually force the international community to intervene again in the fate of Afghanistan.
3. Fuzzy communication lines. Although no country has officially recognized the Taliban as a power in Afghanistan, many are currently trying to build a dialogue with it as a de facto government.
Maintaining such international relations is important for humanitarian operations and solving urgent political and security issues.
Fragmentation within the Taliban movement excludes a single interlocutor with whom the international community can conduct a dialogue. And this, in turn, can lead to confusion, uncertainty and unpredictability at various levels of interaction. In such a situation, the international community will not be able to hold anyone accountable for actions that provoke chaos and instability.
4. The emergence of an even more favorable environment for foreign terrorists. Fragmentation within the Taliban movement makes the environment more favorable for the prosperity of foreign terrorist groups, since they can pit one faction against another in their favor.
One faction may have special relations with foreign terrorist groups without the knowledge of others – and without the possibility of being held accountable by the international community.
The presence and murder in Kabul of the leader of Al-Qaeda (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation), Ayman al-Zawahiri, is one example of such a development. As a number of observers, including the US Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, suggest that only some Taliban could have known about Zawahiri's presence in Kabul.
UNITY AND COHESIONNevertheless, despite the risks of fragmentation listed above, at the moment the Taliban movement is a relatively cohesive extremist group, as it has been for most of its history.
Cohesion is a positive sign that the Taliban will be able to come to a common denominator on issues related to the structure of their Government and dialogue with external players.
Any future fragmentation within the Taliban movement is likely to be the result of changes in its organizational structure, institutional changes, or a change in the balance of power between different factions.
Another reason for fragmentation in the ranks of the Taliban may be events occurring at the time of the conflict or during the developing peace process, which sharply reduce the assessment by members of the group of its ability to protect or promote their interests.
However, at the moment, the Taliban should be characterized as a relatively cohesive, rather than a fragmented movement.
Larisa ShashokLarisa Aleksandrovna Shashok is a teacher at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
