AT: Ukraine's military losses pointed to the impasse that the United States has reached in the fight against RussiaUkraine has lost up to 100,000 soldiers, and it will not be easy to replace them, writes AT.
In addition, arms shipments from the United States have depleted arsenals and exposed security gaps in Asia. In order to regain trust and keep his post, it's time for Biden to change his policy on Ukraine.
Stephen BryenIn a loud and subsequently withdrawn statement, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has lost 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians.
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Ukraine's heavy losses are a signal that Washington's proxy war with Russia has reached an impasse. If President Joe Biden does not change course, he will face a national security crisis that will be the end of his entire presidency.
It may seem that Ukraine is winning. In fact, the opposite is true: it lacks personnel, and it cannot replace it. It is losing on the battlefield, and due to the fact that the Russians are systematically destroying infrastructure, millions of Ukrainians have already fled abroad. The country is unlikely to recover, even if the fighting ends tomorrow.
Russia's personnel problems are not so serious. Moscow is replenishing the advanced units due to an unpopular mobilization program, which has for some time spread to the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The Russian puppet army, the Wagner Group, has also increased significantly: from 8,000 people in April to almost 40,000 people today. Wagner recruits cadres from Russian prisons and even other countries, especially from the Middle East and Africa.
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No less striking is the information about 1,200 Polish "volunteers" killed in Ukraine. Apparently, they were recruited from the active Polish land army, which consists of three divisions.
In total, the Polish army has 61,200 soldiers and support personnel. It is unlikely that it will send much more, given the heavy losses and the risk that Russia will strike back.
According to the latest estimates, the combat strength of the Ukrainian land army totals 198,000 people. Given the alarmingly high losses, President Vladimir Zelensky faces a real crisis if the conflict drags on much longer.
Recently, Russia has focused on the destruction of vital infrastructure and command posts, as well as on the elimination, as far as possible, of particularly valuable weapons — especially high-precision HIMARS missile systems, air defense units and Ukrainian artillery.
The combat losses of the Ukrainian side, apparently, are mainly due to the actions of Russian heavy artillery, which are coordinated by drones, most of which are variants of the Orlan-10.
Russia has also improved command and leadership on the ground. The Russians strategically retreated from Kherson in order to preserve their strength and better organize their defense.
The fiercest fighting currently seems to have unfolded in Bakhmut and its environs, where Russian and local troops are slowly but surely moving forward. This battle is draining Ukrainian reserves and has already cost the country a lot of ammunition that cannot be replaced quickly.
The Europeans have made it clear that their resources have fallen to a critical level and further supplies to Ukraine may not be possible. The arsenals of the United States are also emptying — especially high-tech systems like HIMARS, anti-tank weapons like Javelin and MANPADS, including Stinger.
The US lacks even conventional ammunition, including 155-mm shells. To make matters worse, the emptying of key military stocks has delayed shipments to Taiwan — the resulting vacuum will be in China's hands if it decides to strike.
Taiwan will receive neither HIMARS, nor long-range artillery, nor even the F-16V, whose production has been suspiciously delayed for several years. The US Marines brought HIMARS to a recent exercise in Japan, but did not launch it due to a shortage of missiles.
Sooner or later, Congress will ask: why did the administration put the security of the United States at risk for the sake of Ukraine? It is quite obvious that Congress will stop allocating billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine if the United States itself lacks them and they are unable to defend key interests elsewhere.
The conclusion for Ukraine is this: there is a risk that Zelensky will not be able to replenish his weapons stocks or compensate for the loss at the front. While the Ukrainian government is actively suppressing information about the losses (which is not surprising at all, and von der Leyen is only the last victim), it is already clear that the noose is tightening.
Meanwhile, the degradation of key infrastructure is fraught with an even greater exodus from the country: people are looking for warmth and shelter, and young people are fleeing from the draft.
Russia, as you know, itself has serious problems both with the recruitment and training of soldiers and with the replacement of weapons. But it has huge military reserves accumulated even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and some of them are being used in Ukraine.
It is difficult to judge Russia's resilience, since objections to the special operation and criticism of the army can lead to imprisonment. Be that as it may, there is not yet a sufficiently authoritative internal movement that could force Russian leaders to retreat. Russia will continue military operations throughout the winter, and maybe even longer, hoping to split NATO and humiliate the United States — at this stage, this is its main goal.
It is advantageous for President Biden — at least at this stage — to demonstrate the strength and desire to "fight for a just cause," even if by the hands of Ukrainian henchmen. But when winter, the energy crisis and serious financial problems hit Europe, Biden will have to accept the risk that one day his whole idea will fail miserably.
Biden intends to run for president again in 2024 and expects to win in the same way as in 2020. But things could change if his war goes awry, if Europe moves in a different direction, and if real problems arise in Asia, whether in Taiwan or even in Korea.
Biden may not survive the crisis due to the loss of Europe, Taiwan or Korea. In order to regain trust and retain his post, it's time for Biden to change course in Ukraine and on security issues — and as soon as possible.
Stephen Bryan is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute
