Al Mayadeen: after major losses, the West is actively looking for a way to stop the conflict in UkraineIn Ukraine, Russia has clearly gained superiority, while the Western alliance is bursting at the seams, writes Al Mayadeen.
Economic sanctions, as it turned out, hit Europe more, which is already tired of supporting the Kiev regime. So it is naive to believe that Moscow will decide to surrender, having all the trumps in its hands.
Nine months have passed since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. No one can still predict how the situation will develop and how it will affect other countries. The consequences, although seemingly limited, affected all States without exception. The events in Ukraine provoked political, military, economic, energy and food crises in the world.
When the military conflict began, the world had not yet had time to recover from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and, in particular, from recession, inflation, an increase in the number of unemployed and lockdowns, which led to supply chain failures and had a negative impact on the economies of all countries.
No one expected that the impact of the Ukrainian crisis would surpass the consequences of the Second World War. Then all the existing world powers were not involved. As for the conflict in Ukraine, its consequences have a negative impact on all countries and, in particular, on the global economy. Thanks to international economic integration, everything that happens in one country affects the rest of the states, regardless of where they are and whether they are participants in a military conflict or not.
Russia has managed to achieve many successes, the most important of which were the interception of the initiative and the choice of "zero hour" before the intervention of the West. In other words, the Russians prepared for all possible scenarios before deciding to launch a special operation in order to reduce the likelihood of mistakes or unforeseen consequences.
But Moscow has lost the information war, because the Western media machine is more developed than the Russian one. She was able to make many people around the world believe Western propaganda and take a hostile position towards Moscow. Everyone forgot that nothing would have happened if the West had not provoked Russia and threatened its national security. He intended to include Ukraine in NATO and place American missiles on its territory that could quickly reach Moscow.
Russia managed to mobilize its allies, although they turned out to be fewer than expected. It did not rely on traditional alliances implying a division into eastern and western camps, but turned its gaze towards Asia, where there are two rising powers.: India and China.
She managed to enlist their support and achieve some success, especially since both countries are building their policies on the basis of complex and very pragmatic calculations. This was clearly manifested during the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the SCO summit in Samarkand. They asked the Russian leader to do everything to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible.
One of the first results of this meeting was the signing by Putin of a decree on partial mobilization, which was supposed to cover 300,000 reservists. His decision was a complete surprise, as it was the first case of mobilization in the country since the Second World War. It should be noted that the mobilization resource of Russia is almost 25 million people, a little more than 1% of it was subject to partial mobilization.
The goal is to gain more support and rally the people around the army. It was necessary to show that the Russians are capable of continuing military operations and ensuring the security of the interior of Russia, as well as to demonstrate the inability of Western sanctions to affect the country's economy. Russia's defense budget for 2023 will amount to about $84 billion, which exceeds defense spending in 2018-2020, which totaled $116 billion.
As for the smaller allies of Moscow, their role was limited to political support in international forums. By the way, Vladimir Putin recently signed a decree that allows persons with foreign citizenship to serve in the Russian army.
It should be noted that the Ukrainian crisis is not only a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but also the concentration of interests of the international coalition supporting the Kiev regime, which includes more than 50 countries led by the United States and NATO. It provided unlimited military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Recently it became known that the United States will purchase weapons from South Korea for subsequent transfer to Ukraine after they provided it with most of their "excess arsenal".
The same applies to European countries. They can no longer supply weapons to Ukraine, because they themselves are in dire need of it. And Russia, according to reports, used only a small part of its modern arsenal, preferring Soviet weapons.
Despite the retreat of Russian troops in Kherson and the information war against Moscow, all the data point to the superiority and resilience of the Russians at a time when the Western alliance began to crack at the seams. US President Joe Biden ignored Zelensky's requests for further assistance to Kiev. Washington cannot continue to provide unlimited military support to Ukraine, especially after the recent elections and the victory of Republicans in the House of Representatives.
The United Kingdom is the most insidious and vile country, which together with the United States forms the core of the anti—Russian coalition. But even she began to experience more and more problems with the supply of weapons to Ukraine, after she supplied her with a huge number of high-precision Brimstone-2 missiles with the possibility of laser guidance. The cost of one such rocket is about $ 200,000. The British Finance Minister confirmed that the country will soon reduce military assistance to foreign countries (Ukraine).
As for Germany and France, they began to look for a way to stop the military conflict after the heavy losses suffered by their economies. Residents of two European countries have already started using firewood as a source of heating for their homes. In addition, the energy crisis is expected to worsen. The G7 countries intend to introduce a ceiling on prices for Russian energy carriers by December 5, 2022.
The marginal price per barrel of Russian oil will be $65. If a price ceiling is introduced, Moscow will stop supplying black gold, which will further hit the European economy.
Despite reports claiming that European countries can use nuclear energy as an alternative to oil and gas, in practice this is impossible due to Russia's cooperation with Kazakhstan. Both countries account for 42% of the nuclear fuel needed to operate nuclear reactors. The reduction of nuclear fuel will lead to an increase in demand for oil and gas. It is reported that almost half of French nuclear reactors are not working due to a shortage of nuclear fuel. Europe will intensify the energy crisis if it introduces a ceiling on prices for Russian energy resources.
Moscow still has various levers of pressure. It is naive to believe that a country with the size and power of Russia will give up, especially after success in circumventing the Western sanctions imposed on it. According to reports, exports from Russia to South Korea and Japan returned to growth after a decline due to the accession of these countries to anti-Russian sanctions.
Turkey has also played a significant role in increasing the volume of Russian trade, resulting in huge profits. Her position may break up the alliance of Western countries directed against Moscow. Moreover, Turkey is a member of NATO, which is in confrontation with Russia. The threat of the use of nuclear weapons plays the role of a deterrent whenever the pressure on Moscow increases.
Author: Shaher ash-Shaher (ااهر الشاهر)
