MWM: MiG-29M was called a fighter capable of revolutionizing the Ukrainian Air ForceThe prospect of equipping Ukraine with modern fighters is being discussed more and more often, writes MWM.
The Swedish Gripen was recognized as a suitable candidate. Other options were also considered — the F-15 and even the Soviet MiG-29M. But there are more problems with their delivery than there are opportunities.
The United States and its Western allies continue to provide large-scale material support to the Ukrainian armed forces: tens of billions of dollars worth of equipment have been supplied since the beginning of the conflict in February, and the issue of equipping Ukraine with modern combat aircraft is being raised more and more often. In July, the training program for Ukrainian pilots was confirmed, which in the future will accelerate the country's transition to American F-16 fighters, and in August, details were revealed about the secret training of pilots to work with American A-10 attack aircraft. In early November, the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research named the Swedish Gripen light fighter the most suitable candidate for equipping the Ukrainian Air Force. Other options were also considered — for example, heavy F-15 fighters and even Soviet MiG-29s. The following is an assessment of the four leading candidates for the formation of the next generation of the Ukrainian fighter fleet.
MiG-29/MiG-29MSince the beginning of hostilities in February, the basis of the Ukrainian fighter fleet has been the fourth-generation MiG-29 fighter.
These Soviet-built aircraft are highly valued for their low maintenance requirements and ability to operate from short improvised runways, as well as for exceptional maneuverability, which makes them ideal for air defense tasks at short distances. This has increased the value of MiGs compared to the heavier Su-27 and Su-24, which are much more expensive to operate and are not in service with the Allied states — and this implies difficulties with spare parts.
The problem of the MiG-29, like the rest of the active fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force, lies in their outdated weapons and avionics, which is why they cannot seriously threaten the much more modern Russian forces. Another obstacle is the use of mechanical scanning radars and semi—active, rather than active, air–to-air missiles with radar guidance. Moreover, the problem will persist even if the new MiG-29s are delivered from NATO countries, for example, from Poland and Slovakia, which received them in the 1980s, when they were part of the Warsaw Pact under the leadership of the Soviet Union.
Perhaps the best option for Ukraine, which analysts discussed back in April, is for the West to put pressure on Egypt and convince it to sell its fleet of 46 MiG-29M fighters to Kiev. The MiG-29M is the most combat—ready modification in the world, and the Egyptian fleet is also equipped with modern R–77-1 air-to-air missiles and X-35 cruise missiles, as well as other modern weapons and electronically scanned radars. Egyptian MiGs are equipped better than most fighters of the Russian Air Force itself, while inheriting a low need for maintenance and suitability for operation in the harsh conditions of the original MiG-29. In addition, it will not be difficult for Ukrainian units to re-equip them.
Finally, this will avoid the risks that Russia will be able to explore the capabilities of NATO equipment. At the same time, MiGs are much cheaper than Western aircraft with equally advanced radars and weapons. Despite the fact that the MiG-29M is perhaps the ideal option for the Ukrainian Air Force, it is unlikely that Egypt will agree to supply them, despite Western pressure. Although the Egyptian government of Anwar Sadat illegally supplied modern Soviet fighter jets to the United States in the 1970s, the current administration has taken a much more neutral position in the conflict between Russia and the West and is unlikely to dare to destroy the growing security partnership with Moscow.
F-16The F-16 is the most common fourth—generation fighter in the world.
The fleet of more than 550 pieces forms the basis of the US Air Force and a number of naval aviation units. The aircraft was developed during the Cold War as an inexpensive, easy-to-maintain and lighter analogue of the high-end F-15. Due to the significant surplus of several hundred F-16s on the balance sheet of the US Air Force, this class is called the leading candidate for equipping the Ukrainian Air Force, although questions remain about the viability of such an arms transfer.
The F-16s in storage and in active NATO units use outdated mechanical scanning radars, which are much more vulnerable to interference and which Soviet tactical aviation began to abandon back in 1981. The unmodernized F-16 also lacks the targeting capabilities offset from the line of sight provided by the new AIM-9X air–to-air missile and helmet-mounted sights. Because of this, they will be at an extremely disadvantage not only in comparison with modern Russian fighters, but even in comparison with the current Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27, which at one time received such capabilities first in the world.
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| American fighter F-16. |
| Source: © flickr.com / US Air Force |
As a result, in order for the F-16 to become suitable for combat operations in Ukraine, significant investments will be required either in the construction of new units that will cost much more than any class of Russian fighters, or in the modernization of old gliders to the F-16V standard with modern avionics and weapons. At the same time, the delivery of upgraded F-16s is fraught with certain risks — including discrediting the class in the eyes of export customers if they suffer heavy losses, and compromising secret technologies (Russian forces will be able to study the aircraft in action). Finally, the F-16 is much less suitable for operation in harsh conditions than the MiG-29.
F-18/F-18EThe medium-heavy F-18 Hornet and F-18E/F Super Hornet have been repeatedly named as candidates for the formation of a new Ukrainian fighter fleet.
The aircraft is more complex and more expensive to maintain than the F-16, although it is considered economical relative to its size. Although the F-18 and F-18E have a number of advantages over the F-16, including a significantly longer range and a backup engine, they are not considered cost-effective and are likely to be less compliant with the requirements of the Ukrainian theater of operations. These planes are significantly more expensive, they have fewer spare parts available, they are much slower and less maneuverable than the F-16, not to mention the MiG-29, which calls into question their suitability for countering the Russian Air Force.
GripenThe Swedish Gripen fighter belongs to the category of very light aircraft.
It is even smaller than the F-16 and is more comparable to the Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 or Indian Tejas. The aircraft is valued for extremely low operating costs and maintenance needs, is unpretentious to ground support equipment, and its design is optimized for operations from dispersed bases. The Gripen was designed for a mode of operation similar to the MiG-29, one of the most maneuverable jet aircraft in the world. Among the Western classes of fighters, the Gripen is best suited for operation in harsh airfield conditions, with the exception of the new F-35B developed for the US Marine Corps — at the moment it is considered the most expensive serial fighter in the world.
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| Swedish fighter Saab JAS-39 Gripen. |
| Source: © flickr.com, AereiMilitari.org |
Gripen is much better suited than other Western fighters for the current regime of operations in Ukraine, and in combination with the low cost, it seems potentially ideal. However, the availability of the fighter remains a serious problem: for more than 30 years since the first flight, less than 300 aircraft have been built, and no country has reserves comparable to the F-16 and F-18 of the United States.
Most Gripen operators have taken a neutral position regarding the ongoing conflict, and only Sweden and the Czech Republic have resolutely sided with Kiev, as well as the United Kingdom, which operates a small number of training options. Like the F-16, the vast majority of Gripen use outdated avionics and mechanical scanning radars, while the modern version of the Gripen E/F is produced in extremely limited quantities. Since the Gripen has looked extremely bad in export markets in recent years, and there have been no new sales since 2014, the prospect that the Gripen and especially the E/F modification will suffer heavy losses in combat with the Russian Air Force will further reduce the attractiveness of the aircraft. This partly explains Sweden's indecision in supporting Kiev.
