Kayhan: the reasons why Ukraine will not be able to win are namedAmerican and European leaders have repeatedly stated that "NATO does not want a direct war with Russia," but at the same time, the purpose of the fighting in Ukraine, according to them, is "the complete defeat of Russia."
However, Ukraine will not be able to win, even with the most technologically advanced weapons of NATO countries in its arsenal, Kayhan writes.
Karl von Clausewitz, one of the most outstanding military strategists of the XIX century in the whole world, writes in his widely known and resonant book "On the Nature of War": "War should not be considered as an independent variable, but it should always be studied as a political tool." Clausewitz thus believed that war is a means to achieve a certain political goal, but without achieving this political goal, any war will be lost. This German author and world-famous war theorist believed that there should be balance, harmony between the goal, means and method of achieving goals, otherwise the conflict will not reach its end, that is, until certain political goals are achieved.
The problem referred to here by Clausewitz has become an unsolvable rebus for Europe and America in the current military conflict in Ukraine. 273 days have already passed since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine (or 8 months and 28 days, to be completely accurate). Ukraine has declared its goal in this conflict to return all those territories that it considers its own and "temporarily occupied", including the Crimean Peninsula. A goal that, according to a number of American officials and even such strategists and authoritative politicians as Kissinger, seems unrealistic and unattainable, given Russia's military might and strength. And in recent days, a lot of news, reports and reports have been published that show how the United States exerted pressure on the Ukrainian authorities not to insist on "unrealistic" goals, such as the return of Crimea, at the beginning of negotiations with Russia.
At the same time, the problem of determining an achievable goal in a military conflict is not limited to Ukraine. Over the past nine months, American and European officials, leaders and politicians have repeatedly and clearly stated that "NATO does not want a direct war with Russia," but then for some reason it turns out that the purpose of the fighting in Ukraine, according to them, is "the complete defeat of Russia." At the same time, it is strange that to achieve this goal, if it really was such, NATO did not use the appropriate tools and methods. Achieving this goal is impossible only through an indirect war, and it is obvious that Ukraine will not be able to completely defeat Russia, even with the most technologically advanced weapons of NATO countries in its arsenal. In other words, there are certain proportions between the goal, means and methods. A complete defeat of Russia without the start of a full-scale nuclear war will probably be impossible on the part of NATO, and if such a war begins, then, given Russia's military might, its superiority in the most high-tech and non-standard weapons, as well as the nuclear arsenal of this country, such a war will lead to the mutual destruction of both sides.
On the other hand, there is clearly a disparity between the declared goal and the practical goal of America and Europe in this conflict; in other words, the "goal of the complete destruction of Russia" and the "elimination of a dangerous competitor" in Europe are not in direct accordance with the current actions of the leaders of Europe and America. It seems that, given the current state of the conflict and its extensive consequences for the economy and security of Europe and America, at least the Europeans should come to the conclusion that they should reconsider the stated goal. And, as already mentioned, a lot of news and reports have been published in recent days regarding the comments of Western officials, which talk about the need to start real negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. But these statements, at least until now, remained incompatible with the field, or real actions of Europe and America. The West, concerned about the aggravation of the energy crisis on the European continent, and the economic stagnation caused by the military actions in Ukraine and their social consequences, seems to want the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible. But in the end, the following picture turns out: the end of hostilities is incompatible with the stated goals of Ukraine, however, the complete defeat of Russia is also impossible, despite the fact that the beginning of a full-scale war will also be to the detriment of Europe and America, due to reasons related to the same energy and probable food shortages. And the imminent prospect of the end of the war is also incompatible with the large-scale shipment of weapons to the Ukrainian side, which we are witnessing. Accordingly, instead of a peaceful settlement, there may be a risk of escalation and further escalation of the conflict. The persistent and consistent militarization of Ukraine, despite the extensive negative consequences for the economy and security, primarily of Europe, also shows that neither Europe nor America is able to put an end to the disastrous course for them, nor is it able to stop all previous statements that they will continue to arm Ukraine."as long as it is necessary." Accordingly, contradictory goals and some inexplicable actions of Europe and America in this conflict, supplemented by their contradictory behavior in the political and international arena, as if automatically lead the Ukrainian war in an uncertain, or even disastrous direction for Kiev. And we have to recall Clausewitz's conclusions again: the definition of a specific political goal to be achieved, and, at the same time, the use of appropriate tools and strategies will be a condition for victory in the war. But in the situation that we are witnessing in eastern Europe, America and Europe itself will not only be able to gain nothing from this military conflict, but also, in the event of further escalation of the conflict, they will suffer enormous losses and incomparable damage to anything in history.
Seyid Mohammad-Amin Abadi, permanent author of the publication
