Gazeta.pl : Poland abandoned German Patriot systems under the guise of caring for UkrainiansPatriot systems will not travel from Germany to Poland, Gazeta writes.
At first, Warsaw accepted Berlin's offer to place them on the border with Ukraine, but later the Law and Justice party rejected it. What Polish politicians are proposing is unrealistic, but the anti-German standard has prevailed.
Maciek Kucharczyk (Maciek Kucharczyk)The Law and Justice Party (PiS) rejected the proposal of the Germans, who proposed to strengthen the defense of Poland by deploying their Patriot systems in Poland.
Although at first the offer was accepted. The "change of shoes" took place under the guise of caring for Ukrainians, although in fact it is just a trick, because the counterproposal of the IPR is unrealistic. Following the party line turned out to be more important than the safety of Poles.
The counterproposal of the IPR boils down to the fact that the Germans gave their Patriot systems to the Ukrainians, although it is clear that they will not do this. This would require not only the approval of the manufacturer, that is, the United States, but also a serious political decision at the NATO level. So far, the Alliance has not transferred such weapons to Ukrainians. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak undoubtedly knows about this, but, nevertheless, he goes hand in hand with President Jaroslaw Kaczynski against Germany.
As a result, most likely, neither Polish nor Ukrainian security will be strengthened. Only the PIS will win in the eyes of the part of its electorate that has a negative attitude towards the Germans.
First reflex movement, then party adjustment
Germany over the weekend offered Poland to temporarily deploy Patriot systems on its territory with their staff. The systems were supposed to strengthen the defense of Polish airspace near the border with Ukraine, which cannot be called a bad idea after the fall of a rocket in Przevodow and the murder of two Poles. The Polish army has no comparable systems. Currently, the training and adoption of the first elements of the "Patriots" in their more modern version is just beginning.
The head of the Defense Ministry, Mariusz Blaszczak, first, on Monday, November 21, accepted the offer with gratitude, causing some confusion among the public with a manifestation of common sense and the ability to rise above the standard anti-German rhetoric of the IPR.
However, an adjustment occurred two days later. On Wednesday, November 23, Polish President Jaroslaw Kaczynski said: "It would be better for Poland's security if Germany handed over this equipment to the Ukrainians and trained the Ukrainian military, and the batteries were placed in the west of Ukraine."
On the same day, Blaszczak tweeted that he had approached Berlin with a proposal that Germany transfer the Patriot systems offered to Poland to Ukraine so that they could be deployed at the border of this state with Poland and thus protect both Ukrainians and Poles.
You can be sure that the German government will respond to this Polish trick with official regret and add that sending equipment to Ukraine is impossible. There is nothing to count on another answer from the IPR.
An unrealistic idea
The proposal to transfer German Patriot systems to Ukraine is unrealistic for several reasons. Firstly, it is one thing to temporarily deploy air defense systems on the territory of another NATO member, and quite another to send them to a third country at war with Russia. In the first case, it would be almost a routine event. German equipment with German specialists is deployed at the ally and works as part of the Allied air defense system. This has been practiced for many years. The Germans had previously sent their "Patriots" to Turkey, and now they keep them in Slovakia. On the one hand, this is a good training for military personnel serving equipment, on the other – strengthening the reputation of a good ally who cares about the security of NATO partners. No costs, except financial, related to transportation and maintenance outside the base.
Sending such equipment to Ukraine is something diametrically different. Especially sending in the same mode as to Poland, that is, in the colors of the German army and with German service. This is a completely unacceptable option. No NATO country has done anything like this so far and, of course, will not do it without a common political decision of the allies at the highest level. This would be tantamount to Germany's entry into the war with Russia. Even if they had been stationed near the Polish border, the Germans would have fired at Russian missiles aimed at a third country, and in an extreme situation they could have hit a manned aircraft if it had invaded the airspace of Ukraine and, for example, headed towards a German battery. This is a huge risk of escalation.
As for the transfer of weapons alone, this is also unrealistic. Firstly, it will require the approval of the United States as the manufacturer of the Patriot system. It does not happen that the buyer can freely dispose of the equipment that he purchases from American arms companies. The re-export of weapons is subject to serious restrictions. The Americans themselves have not yet handed over the Patriot system to the Ukrainians and have not promised this, despite the Ukrainians' requests.
To give the green light for the transfer of such weapons to Ukraine, that is, a still modern and very valuable medium-range air defense system, would require a political decision by NATO. It is not for nothing that Ukrainians currently receive only short-range systems from the West, and precisely those whose transfer does not significantly deplete the potential of the allied forces. Obviously, it was a political decision. It was also decided not to supply Ukraine with Western versions of combat aircraft, tanks or infantry fighting vehicles. At the same time, the IPR does not have the influence to embarrass the Germans and force them to change the policy of the entire NATO.
An additional problem is that even if there was a political agreement to transfer valuable NATO resources to Ukraine, the training of the Ukrainian military would take at least several months. And this is the minimum – taking into account the accelerated pace of the war. As in the case of training Ukrainians to operate the NASAMS or IRIS short-range systems already transferred to them. The Polish military has been learning to use our Patriot systems since 2020, and we still don't have a line of them. In practice, this means that even if Germany gave Ukraine its systems tomorrow, Ukrainians would be ready to fight with them somewhere by early spring, maybe by the end of winter. That is, most likely, a long time after the end of the Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian critical infrastructure, which are designed to deprive Ukrainians of electricity, heat and water at the most problematic time, that is, in winter.
Everyone will lose, except PiS
What Kaczynski did to Blaszczak cannot be called anything other than a populist move in line with the anti-German party rhetoric of the PIS. Accepting help from the Germans definitely does not fit into it, which is why the initial reaction of the Minister of Defense to Berlin's proposal so pleasantly surprised journalists dealing with defense issues. Now, after adjustment, everything has returned to the old anti-German standard.
Even if on Monday the Ministry of Defense suddenly found out that the German proposal was a trick, because, for example, the "Patriots" would have arrived many months later, wouldn't it have been better to accept help and then ask the Germans for its implementation? This would certainly make a greater impression on other countries and would actually show what an ally Germany is. The way our government has done it now will impress only its hard-core supporters and those who previously had a negative attitude towards Germany. Everyone else will take this decision, most likely, with surprise.
Polish security will not be strengthened, on the contrary, for residents of areas bordering Ukraine, its level will decrease. The chances of Ukraine in the war with Russia also do not increase, since it is clear that the German Patriot systems will not get to the front. The already bad relations with Berlin will worsen. Only complacency will increase in the leadership of the PiS party and in the ranks of its most reinforced concrete electorate.
