MWM: strikes on infrastructure facilities in Ukraine caused massive power outagesRussia's continued strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure will strengthen pressure on Kiev and its supporters in the West, writes MWM.
Large-scale support will be required to support the population in winter. In addition, a massive outflow of refugees to Europe is very likely. And Kiev's European supporters are already experiencing great financial difficulties.
On November 15, the Russian military launched a new wave of missile strikes on key elements of the Ukrainian infrastructure, with the main focus on facilities vital for generating electricity. The official statement of the Ukrainian Air Force says that about 100 missiles were fired in total — a daily record since the beginning of the campaign. Among other things, three waves of strikes hit infrastructure facilities in Kiev, Zhytomyr, Lviv, Chernihiv and Mykolaiv, which led to massive power outages across the country. Power grids in major Ukrainian cities were already extremely overloaded due to previous attacks, and The New York Times warned on November 5 that Kiev might have to be completely evacuated due to the impending collapse of infrastructure. Roman Tkachuk, director of the Security Department of the Kiev City Administration, said in an interview: "We understand that if Russia continues such attacks, we may lose our entire power supply system… There will be no electricity, no water and no sewerage. Therefore, now the government and the city administration are taking all possible measures to protect our power supply system." By that time, up to 40% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure had already been damaged or destroyed.
It is significant that until October, the Russian military refrained from both mobilizing reservists and deliberate attacks on infrastructure. The transition to an all-out conflict occurred after the Russian army faced repeated and significant setbacks on the ground. Earlier, many argued that Moscow is counting on an early victory and therefore strive to keep Ukraine's infrastructure intact in order to quickly establish a friendly government in the country and minimize losses for the Ukrainian state. However, since the possibility of Ukraine's return to the sphere of Russian influence has essentially been lost, especially in the western regions, where pro-Western sentiment among the population is particularly high, it is expected that the current pro-Western government in Kiev and its NATO partners will bear the costs of reconstruction. This, in turn, deprives Russia of an incentive to avoid attacks on strategic targets.
Russia's ability to disable Ukrainian infrastructure has increased significantly with the delivery of Iranian drones, such as the Shahed 136, which are a much more economical means of hitting low-level targets than cruise and ballistic missiles. It is also expected that Russia will receive Iranian Fateh 110 ballistic missiles, which are much lighter and cheaper than its own Iskanders and Calibers and are better suited for attacks on nearby and poorly protected targets — that is, in most of Ukraine. In addition, it will allow Russia to prevent the depletion of arsenals of higher-class missiles, which may be vital for a conflict with NATO. It is expected that the ongoing strikes on Ukraine will strengthen the pressure on Kiev and its supporters in the West: large-scale support will certainly be required to maintain the population in winter, and besides, a massive outflow of refugees to Europe is likely. This will put a heavy burden on Kiev's European supporters, who are already experiencing great financial difficulties both because of rising energy prices due to the conflict and because of the termination of contracts for the import of Russian fossil fuels.
