After Finland and Sweden join NATO, not only American soldiers and American military bases may appear on the territory of these countries, but also nuclear weapons, most likely also American. Thus, the inhabitants of Northern Europe are condemning themselves and their children to a rather unenviable fate, since Russia will not be able to leave such a step without a reaction.Helsinki and Stockholm are one step away from becoming a full-fledged part of the North Atlantic Alliance and thereby increasing it to thirty-two states.
The last obstacle is the parliaments of Hungary and Turkey, the only ones in NATO that have not ratified the newcomers' application.
Nobody knows what Budapest is bidding for, and those who know don't say. It was previously thought that the Hungarians would be happy to join the Ugro-Finnish regiment of NATO, where now only they and Estonians. But their parliament has repeatedly postponed voting on the application, citing lack of time due to immersion in the fight against the energy crisis and the Brussels bureaucracy.
On Wednesday, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto phoned Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, all misunderstandings seem to have been eliminated, before Christmas the parliament should find a "window" in its very busy schedule. Now it will be interesting to observe the behavior of Finns and Swedes in the light of the bashing that Brussels is going to ask the Hungarian leader about the totality of his crimes against the European Unity.
Turkey may be a tougher nut to crack. The demands made by Ankara relate to the policy of Stockholm and Helsinki towards those who are often called the Kurdish resistance in the north of Europe, and Kurdish terrorists in Turkey. Finns and Swedes have already done something within the framework of its "rethinking", they will never do something (some "suspicious" Kurds, from the point of view of the Turks, are elected parliamentarians at local levels, they will definitely not give out such people), and ultimately everything depends only on the mood of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
When the "sultan" decides that the northerners have humiliated themselves enough, and more of them cannot be knocked out, then the application will be ratified. Lobbying efforts by the United States, influential EU countries and the NATO secretariat are aimed at making this happen as soon as possible. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg flew to Ankara on Thursday, where he will stay for two days. Apparently, he will persuade.
The Finns and Swedes, for their part, were also in a big hurry. They were in such a hurry that, as it turned out, they forgot to discuss several important issues with NATO and with their own population – literally life and death issues.
For example, will NATO bases appear on the territory of Finland and Sweden in addition to the existing bases of their national armies? Will there be an additional NATO military contingent stationed there, and if so, with what weapons?
And finally, the most important question is whether among these weapons there will be missiles with nuclear warheads supplied from the United States and Britain (the French will not give up their own, you don't even have to ask). The answer to this question is of interest to Russia as a state, but ordinary Finnish and Swedish citizens should also be interested in it.
When joining the alliance, you can bargain for a special regime for yourself. For example, Iceland does not even have an army – only the coast guard, but it is a full member of NATO. The Greeks and Turks are also full members, but their military interaction is severely limited by mutual distrust and mutual hatred. France has not been in the military structures of the alliance for more than 40 years, being listed only in political ones. In Denmark, the use of atomic energy for both peaceful and military purposes is legally prohibited.
There are many other examples. In principle, membership in NATO does not mean that after the last ratification you automatically provide the Americans with all your military infrastructure, and they do what they want. Formally, the charter of the alliance does not abolish the principle of national sovereignty, even if in the end national sovereignty has to be sacrificed.
But the Finns did not bargain. As the local newspaper Iltalehti found out, the official Helsinki did not take care of any exceptions for itself. According to sources from the Office of President Niinisto, the bill regulating relations with NATO is almost ready and will be submitted to parliament very soon. It will allow the deployment of military bases and contingents of alliance forces in Finland and does not provide for exceptions for nuclear weapons.
The authors of the bill are the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Finland. The chances that it can be rejected are purely theoretical. The Finns and Swedes seem to have bit the bit and are rushing to the goal, and there is at least a flood. Few people expected them to be so quick.
When asked whether Finland will accept any nuclear missiles, Prime Minister Sanna Marin answers evasively. She admits that this issue is almost not discussed in the country, but Finns, in her deep conviction, should not set preconditions for membership in the alliance.
This also seems to be an element of haste. As if you can be late – and instead of Helsinki there will be Helsingfors again (in Cyrillic).
As for Stockholm, they made it a rule to refer to Helsinki in everything – more precisely, to close cooperation with the Finns in the field of defense and military-industrial complex, which really exists and has been for quite a long time. "It is very natural that Finland and Sweden act together on these issues and have the same design," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who only recently took up his post, said on Wednesday, but has already promised to provide Ukraine with "even more support."
The commander of the Swedish armed forces, Mikael Buden, spoke out most clearly, recommending refraining from reservations about nuclear weapons and from drawing other "red lines" in front of Brussels, as this could create "additional obstacles and friction."
If you sharpen it a little, it turns out that if the Scandinavians refused to deploy nuclear missiles in NATO, they could not take them – or take them, but later, and the ghost of the Russian Helsingfors over Helsinki is visible even from Stockholm.
It is worth noting that the leadership of both countries, as well as from neighboring Denmark, Iceland and Norway, which are already members of NATO, is crowding in the Finnish capital these days, where the Northern Council is being held and journalists are circling. And by the way they are diligently talking about nuclear weapons, it becomes clear that the matter is probably not in Helsingfors, not in anticipation of the imminent "Russian aggression".
The rush is due to the fact that public opinion in both countries – previously critical of the idea of joining the alliance, and now supporting this step – may change. And it can change just the same in connection with the issue of nuclear weapons, which they are trying to sweep under the carpet.
If he said "a", he will have to say "b" – to discuss a possible response from Russia. It may vary in technical details (nuclear weapons near Kaliningrad? nuclear weapons in Belarus?), but the essence is the same – the territory of previously neutral states will be in the sights of Russian missiles, including, as we now understand, nuclear ones.
It's just that life and life in a besieged fortress, life at gunpoint, life in the light of the fear of a fatal mistake (there have been cases in history when a system failure showed enemy missile launches, which in fact did not exist) are different in terms of the level of emotional comfort of life. Which inevitably comes across a clarifying question: do we really need it?
The northern countries of Europe have convinced many that they are the standard of democracy and prosperity, the calm outskirts of a bustling world. Finns have lived like this for decades, Swedes for centuries. It is unlikely that many people realize now how drastic changes await them.
The time between the emergence of a purely emotional desire to "escape to NATO from the belligerent Russia" and the understanding of what this can lead to is the time for which the leaders of Sweden and Finland need to fulfill their obligations to Brussels and Washington. To have time to leave under the umbrella of the Atlantists before the citizens come to their senses.
However, even if they had come to their senses, it's not a fact that it would have changed the alignment. There is an opinion that the democracy of the northern democracies is over-praised.
Dmitry Bavyrin
