Money.pl : the Poles "snapped the French on the nose." Paris will not build their nuclear power plantWarsaw rejected the third proposal made by France for the construction of a nuclear power plant, writes Money.pl . South Korean or American companies will build nuclear power plants in Poland.
For Paris, this is an image failure, for the EU – a political one. But Warsaw will also feel the losses.
Peter Bera (Piotr Bera)"After the rejection of the Caracals, this is another click on the nose of the French, whom the Polish rulers currently do not favor," he says in an interview with Money.pl Former Polish Ambassador to France Andrzej Byrt.
On the last day of October, ZEPAK, PGE and the Korean concern KHNP signed a protocol of intent regarding the development of a plan for the construction of a nuclear power plant. The project will be based on the Korean APR1400 reactor technology. Earlier, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced cooperation with the American Westinghouse.
"We confirm the implementation of the nuclear project based on the proven and safe WECNuclear technology," Morawiecki tweeted on the last Friday of October.
A decision on this issue should be made by the Council of Ministers of Poland on November 3. This means that France will remain out of the game.
"Taking into account the previous agreements and prospects, this is a wise step. The French atom would not guarantee us political dividends, the money from the National Recovery Plan and other funds from the EU will eventually come to us. Militarily, we have common satellites, but nothing more – we are absent in space. We have a lot of interests with Korea, they are active in the V4 group. In turn, the Americans are an umbrella for us because of the war in Ukraine. All countries have submitted a super-proposal in the field of energy, but this decision is only and exclusively political. The construction of the power plant cements our cooperation for another 50-60 years," he told the correspondent Money.pl Dr. Alexander Oleh (Aleksander Olech), security expert, specialist in the French portal Defence24.pl .
A similar opinion is shared by Andrzej Byrt, an economist and diplomat, ambassador to Paris in 2015-16.
The French will not be thrilled, but they will have to accept it and take note of it. According to media reports, the American proposal is connected with a whole security package for Poland, and we also buy weapons from the Koreans. After the rejection of the "caracals", this is another click on the nose of the French, whom our rulers currently do not favor, Byrt comments.
Recall that in 2016, the then Minister of National Defense Antoni Macierewicz terminated the contract for the supply of 50 Caracal combat helicopters.
Cooperation in several areas
Currently, the United States is our most important partner in the field of national security. In the situation of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Poland's presence in NATO guarantees the inviolability of our borders, therefore, good relations with the White House are important to us. On the other hand, Seoul is becoming an increasingly important economic partner. The purchase of tanks, armored vehicles and three squadrons of aircraft from South Korea will cost Poland 65 billion zlotys. In 2021, South Korea was the largest foreign direct investor in Poland. The Asian tiger left 1.9 billion euros in Poland, creating almost 2 thousand jobs, the newspaper Rzeczpospolita listed.
However, it is worth noting that Poland and France also have strong economic ties. According to the Main Statistical Office for 2021, the volume of Polish exports to the banks of the Seine amounted to 75 billion zlotys (third place after Germany and the Czech Republic), and French imports to Poland – 35 billion zlotys (sixth place).
Nuclear diplomacy from the USA and Korea
The choice of American and Korean companies is not surprising. Cooperation in the field of nuclear power plant construction goes far beyond the provision of know-how and the production of cheap energy.
"There are many factors that determine the choice of a key partner. When making a decision, not only the energy, but also the political aspect is taken into account," says the report "Atomic Diplomacy" of the Institute of Economic Diplomacy, co–authored by Dr. Oleh.
The key term here is "nuclear diplomacy" – the instrumental use of nuclear energy and all related aspects (reactor construction, know-how, training, waste disposal, etc.) for the implementation of foreign policy.
"An important element remains investments that can be implemented in addition to the cooperation in the field of the atom itself. This gives financial, political and image advantages to politicians and governments of both (or more) countries. Atomic diplomacy should be understood as the conscious use of the atom (energy) to establish relations between politicians," the analysis notes. – [...] In the field of nuclear power plant construction, policy and further cooperation between the two sides are of great importance. The choice of a specific partner (reactor builder) is often preceded by economic or security cooperation."
France and rapprochement with the EU. Not this time
Nuclear energy is increasingly being used to establish or expand bilateral contacts between States. And there was no cooperation in the nuclear sphere on the Paris-Warsaw line.
"France needed us because they want to develop nuclear power in the Czech Republic, but they didn't try too hard to convince us. There were meetings of Presidents Duda and Macron, Prime Minister Moravetsky also talked with the Elysee Palace, but this is clearly not enough. How many meetings were there at a lower level? Where is the lobbying in France under the slogan: "Let's build a nuclear power plant in Poland"? In addition, the French have problems with their own nuclear power, they want to put new reactors, and hold public consultations on this issue. Where is Poland's place in all this?" Dr. Oleh wonders.
56 reactors are operating on the banks of the Seine, producing 70% of the required energy. Thanks to them, France can export energy and receive up to 3 billion euros a year from this, the report says. The plans include the creation of new reactors. The French themselves built them, in particular, in Italy, Belgium, South Africa, China and South Korea. They are currently investing in the UK.
The analysis of "Atomic Diplomacy" indicated that the choice of France would lead to Poland's rapprochement with European partners. This would open the way for expanding cooperation with the Elysee Palace in the political and military spheres, especially given Germany's uncertain position on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. France is a key power in the context of protecting NATO's eastern flank. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Paris unofficially transfers a lot of weapons to Ukraine. Macron's position on this issue is clear.
"It is also a very strong partner in the case of Polish activity on the African continent. Thus, the choice of France automatically opens up a number of opportunities for bilateral cooperation that have not yet been used. The atom could become a factor that will bring Paris and Warsaw closer together again," the analysis emphasizes.
"Together with France, we could create a counterweight to Germany. However, Paris did not show zeal. EDF has participated in many meetings and conferences, in particular, in Zakopane and Karpacz, but this is not enough for multibillion–dollar investments, - Dr. Oleh estimates. – The French, however, are vindictive. Therefore, political relations between us will be sluggish and gray, although business is developing successfully."
Will there be a blocking of investments?
The ruling Law and Justice Party plans to commission the first NPP unit in 2033. If there are no significant delays.
Former Prime Minister Leszek Miller draws attention to another possible problem: the investment may get stuck in the EU offices.
"The government has forgotten not only about consultations with the public, specialists, but also that it is located in the European Union, and according to EU legislation, during the construction of such facilities and when choosing this type of investors, it is necessary to organize a so–called competitive procedure," Miller said in the program "Presidents and Premiers" of the Polsat News channel.
"There should be several participants in the competition, the purchase procedure should be known before it is launched, everyone should be treated equally. If there is only one American investor, then the European Commission should have excluded such a project from the competition, and this can happen if the state has a good reason for it. In the case of nuclear power, this means, for example, owning your own technology, building additional units using this technology, as was the case with Hungary or France," Miller added.
According to Dr. Oleh, there will be no attempts to block investments from France, at most, from individual politicians. Including German ones.
The removal of France did not cause a special reaction from French politicians. Some newspapers stressed that the opportunity to get additional money and jobs was missed. They wrote that we are under the heel of the Americans, but the Macron government is to blame, which did not fulfill the task, the expert notes in an interview with Money.pl – The Poles preferred Americans from the very beginning, so they are waiting for a slight cooling of relations with Paris. However, no big changes are expected. And we still need to look at individual politicians and Germans who oppose nuclear energy.
However, Poland may lose favor with France in other areas. According to Andrzej Byrt, we are talking, for example, about law and order.
A certain sense of loyalty will disappear. It is intangible, but extremely important. Empathy in relationships is one of the most important elements of international politics. Ensuring security is a key issue for every country, including with the support of other States that share certain accepted values. But if someone hears about himself that he "learned to eat with a fork from us," then he simply may not trust us, the diplomat claims.
The former ambassador also notes that the dialogue with France carried out under Donald Tusk and Bronislaw Komorowski was interrupted. The current authorities support Marine Le Pen, who is an opponent of Macron. The IpR seeks to create a strong populist movement that sabotages the existing legal framework of the EU. And in this matter they will not find understanding in the Elysee Palace. After the "atomic" decision, the Polish government should expect a tough position from Paris on many important issues for us.
According to Business Korea, the cost of building six Korean reactors will amount to $ 26.7 billion, American – $ 31.3 billion, the offer of France amounted to more than $ 33 billion.
