As Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai Forum, radical changes are expected for the whole planet in the coming years. What exactly did the Russian leader mean, who and how created the prerequisites for such drastic changes, and what might this unpredictable future look like today for the whole world and for Russia?"Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time important decade since the end of the Second World War."
Many experts are ready to subscribe to this phrase of Vladimir Putin, which he said during a meeting of the Valdai International Club. Moreover, both from Russia and from other countries – the United States, the European Union, the states of the "global South". Everywhere they write that the coming years will be decisive in the development of civilization.
Yes, there have already been "defining" decades in the recent history of mankind. However, never before – even in the 30s – have the stakes been so high. In fact, in the next decade it will be determined whether human civilizations will be able to coexist together according to the same, universally accepted rules – within the framework of a process that the Russian president called "integration".
The Perfect storm"If liberal globalization is depersonalization, the imposition of the Western model on the whole world, then integration, on the contrary, is the disclosure of the potential of each civilization in the interests of the whole, for the sake of common gain.
If globalism is a dictate, it all comes down to this in the end, then integration is the joint development of common strategies that benefit everyone," Vladimir Putin said. The alternative to this process will be total degradation, which can lead not just to a world war, but to a nuclear war. That is, simply put, to the destruction of human civilizations as such.
The reason for such high rates will be a whole set of crises and problems that will culminate in the coming years. Which, intertwining with each other, create a real perfect storm, which civilizations are now entering.
One of these problems is the end of globalization as such. Globalization, on which American dominance in the world was based.
"It was on unification, on financial and technological monopolism, on the erasure of all and every difference that the Western model of globalization, neocolonial in its essence, was built. The task was clear – to strengthen the unconditional dominance of the West in the world economy and politics, and for this to put at their service the natural and financial resources, intellectual, human and economic capabilities of the entire planet, to do it under the sauce of the so–called new global interdependence," Vladimir Putin said.
However, the US itself has buried this model. The growth of protectionism, the inability to pass the test of crises (in particular, the coronavirus, when the absolute majority of countries chose to close themselves even to allies and survive on their own), America's selfish policy of siphoning resources from other states, using its control over global institutions (the same dollar) for political pressure on countries – all this led to the rollback of humanity from globalism to regionalism.
And this is not only about the economy, not only about some kind of political cooperation and the disappearance of the chance for the emergence of a single global and attractive ideology for everyone, but also about the intensification of conflict between regional centers of power that are building their systems. It is no longer so much about coexistence as about the attempt of some countries to win their place under the sun, while others are not given this place. And if strengthening regional integration within the SCO does not cause any conflicts yet, then, for example, the AUKUS created by the Americans is directly aimed at military and political containment of China.
Parasites and schism Another challenge within the perfect storm is the deepest crisis within the United States.
First of all, the economic crisis.
America lives a parasitic life, reducing the budget by borrowing and constantly increasing its public debt. Under Joseph Biden, he broke the $30 trillion ceiling. It will only grow – which means that the United States needs the level of reliability of investments in the American economy to be the highest in the world, and interest rates on loan servicing to be the lowest.
Only in such conditions will investors and central banks of other countries continue to lend to the American economy.
Simply put, the more complicated the situation in the American economy, the more the economies of other countries – including their own allies - should be in crisis (for which the United States is now creating a crisis in Europe). And all this will take place against the background of a sharp rise in the cost of resources – a number of European media have already written that the period of cheap energy is over. The American dream, we recall, is based on the principle that every next generation of Americans should live better than the previous one.
There is also a political crisis in the United States. The entire American political system was based on several whales.
First of all, on bipartisan cooperation. If in Europe and in a number of other countries, the control of one party over the legislative sphere and the other over the executive led to an internal political crisis and paralysis, then for the United States this division was in the order of things. Republicans could control Congress, Democrats sat in the White House, and at the same time both parties perfectly cooperated within the framework of a single course.
The second whale was absolute confidence in the integrity of the elections. This was especially important in situations where, within the framework of the majority electoral system, the difference between the candidates from the two parties in the elections could be only a few percent, or even a few tenths of a percent.
Now these whales have sunk. Starting approximately from the Obama period, inter-party cooperation began to disappear, primarily due to the internal radicalization of the ideology of both parties. Under Donald Trump, the conflict reached a fundamentally new level when the Democrats not only refused to cooperate with the Republican administration, but also declared its leader (who did not share democratic neoliberal values) almost antichrist.
Now there will be the opposite effect – after the Republicans win the midterm elections in the twenty-second year, they will simply make the Democratic administration of Joseph Biden a "lame duck" two years before the expiration of the latter's powers. Republicans will drown the current administration and sabotage its decisions – especially after the Democrats, according to Republicans, rigged the 2020 presidential election. The crisis is expected to culminate in 2024, when new presidential elections will be held.
America is becoming extremely aggressive in this situation of internal instability. In particular, because no one has canceled the principle of a small victorious war for the unification of the nation.
With competitors and without lines An equally important element of the perfect storm is also the growth of American competitors.
In the situation of the crisis of globalization, as well as the growing aggressiveness of the United States, more and more regional centers of power are starting to play their game. As part of their game, they challenge the United States and the unspoken rules of the game established by the Americans.
This is not only about Russia with its special operation in Ukraine, not only about China with its claims to Taiwan and economic dominance in East Asia, and not even only about Iran with its desire to bring its nuclear program to its logical end.
It's about American allies. Those of them whose leadership has still retained at least some of its sovereignty and, in the current situations, escapes from the sinking ship of American leadership. He chooses his own path of development in isolation from America.
And if Germany does not have such a political will, if the old Europe as a whole is still in line with American interests, despite the serious side effects of such a follow-up, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already chosen their path aimed at multi-vector and diversification of foreign relations. Both countries are America's key allies in their regions, and the weakening of these alliances leads to an even greater increase in American aggressiveness.
Finally, all these elements of the perfect storm are abundantly seasoned with nuclear weapons. Weapons that have kept the world from a global war for decades, have allowed countries to develop with full confidence in their own security for decades. But this was in a situation where these weapons were possessed by responsible players – that is, countries governed by responsible leaders who observe certain unwritten red lines. A set of agreements that created a certain ceiling of escalation in any conflicts.
Now these red lines are no more.
The bombing of the "Northern Streams" by the Americans and the British, the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, as well as the provocative visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan showed that the ceiling has been breached. And a game without red lines, global competition and aggressive politics may well lead to the fact that civilization will go beyond the threshold of nuclear war.
Therefore, the next decade will be decisive. Either we will find forms of coexistence and integration, or, in the words of a famous scientist, the fourth World War will be fought with stones and sticks. "Humanity now faces, in fact, two ways: either to continue accumulating a load of problems that will inevitably crush us all, or to try to find solutions together, albeit imperfect, but working, capable of making our world more stable and safer," Vladimir Putin said on Valdai.
Gevorg Mirzayan
