iDNES: Weapons stocks in Europe have been depleted. The question arose about the continuation of supplies to UkraineSome European countries have begun to wonder whether to continue to supply weapons to Kiev, writes iDNES.
The fighting in Ukraine has devastated their reserves, which are very difficult to replenish in the current conditions. Russia is coping with this much better.
The shortage of weapons across Europe may put Ukraine's allies in front of a difficult choice, because with all the support for Kiev, they do not exclude the risk of a Russian attack on themselves. Therefore, according to the agencies, some European countries were faced with a dilemma: to continue sending weapons to Ukraine or not?
The AR agency wrote about this on Sunday. It is reported that the Russian special operation in Ukraine required the emptying of already small stocks of weapons not only of some small, but also of a number of large countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. The United States and other NATO members have sent a billion dollars' worth of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, and some allies have given up all their Soviet-era backup weapons and are now waiting for an American replacement.
However, it will be difficult for some European countries to replenish stocks quickly, since they have already lost a strong defense industry that would be able to compensate for what they have given away, and many of them rely on the dominant American military-industrial complex, which has already displaced some competitors.
Now, as the AP news agency reports, these countries face a dilemma, whether to send weapons from their stocks to Ukraine as before, thereby potentially increasing their vulnerability to a potential Russian strike? Or should they keep the remnants to defend themselves, although in this case Russia will have a better chance of winning in Ukraine?
After almost eight months of intense fighting, the Allies expect the war to continue for months, maybe even years. At the same time, both sides are rapidly expending their weapons stocks. Victory may depend on who holds out longer.
Russia accelerates production and sends soldiers to factories
European leaders have said in comments and interviews that Russia cannot be allowed to win in Ukraine, and therefore they will continue to support it. However, as it has been emphasized more than once, the issue of protecting themselves also worries them.
"According to our forecasts, Russia will restore its defense capability sooner rather than later, because the Russian president may order weapons manufacturers to switch to round—the-clock operation," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. Moscow, he said, sent some military personnel to factories, not to the front.
According to Pevkur, Russia has experience in restoring the strength of its army, and therefore it can attack one of its European neighbors every few years. As an example, the Estonian minister cited the war in Georgia in 2008, the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the recent special operation in Ukraine.
Other small countries, such as Lithuania, as well as some large countries, including Germany, also faced difficulties. "The reserves of the Bundeswehr are limited, as are those of other European countries," the German Defense Ministry said. The agency does not disclose details about the stocks of weapons for security reasons, but they assured that they are working to eliminate gaps.
The reserves are small, because after the end of the cold war, many European states have reduced defense spending. American defense companies that received European orders also played a role. "For example, Norwegians use F-16 and F-35 fighter jets instead of Swedish greenpens, and this affects the state of the European defense market," says Max Bergman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Too late increased defense spending
The United States has long called on other member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to increase defense spending to two percent of GDP, but most states have not met this goal. Only after the outbreak of the armed conflict, several European countries pledged to significantly increase defense spending in order to upgrade their armed forces faster. Meanwhile, they are sending to Ukraine most of what they have at their disposal.
Estonia has transferred to Ukraine the equivalent of one third of its defense budget, as stated by Pevkur. Norway has sent Ukraine more than 45% of its stocks of howitzers; Slovenia — almost 40% of its tanks; the Czech Republic — about 33% of its MLRS, according to the IfW Institute in Kiel, Germany.
Since February, the United States has allocated more than $17.5 billion for weapons and equipment to Ukraine, which raises questions among some members of Congress whether it is too risky. The Pentagon does not give data on its reserves.
The Washington-based Stimson Center Institute suggests that the war in Ukraine has reduced American stocks of Javelin anti—tank missile systems by a third, and Stinger man-portable air defense missile systems by 25%. The question of artillery stocks is becoming more acute, since the M777 howitzers are no longer being produced.
Replenishing stocks and production defense capacities will take a long time, as Tom Waldwin of the International Institute for Strategic Studies suggests. According to him, this will require significant investments in infrastructure from some countries. "It won't be cheap. Inflation and instability of the supply chain will increase costs," added Waldwin.
