Turkey is interested in a European alternative to American weaponsTurkey and the United States are still negotiating a multibillion-dollar sale of F-16 Viper fighter jets, which are crucial to Turkey's efforts to modernize its air force.
While US President Joseph Biden is in favor of the deal, there remains strong opposition in Washington. In July, the House of Representatives approved a law prohibiting the administration from selling the F-16 unless Ankara can prove that the deal is vital to U.S. national security. Further complicating the situation is the condition that Turkey should not use fighter jets for unauthorized flights over Greece (while officials in Turkey have stated that they will not comply with any such restrictions).
Turkey and Greece have historically been involved in a number of conflicts, including over maritime rights, the sovereignty of the Aegean islands, natural gas and airspace borders. Despite the short-term rapprochement between the two NATO allies after the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, the two countries have recently been drawn into a war of "aggressive rhetoric", which is complemented by a "demonstration of muscles".
The latest such manifestation was the placement by Athens of donated American military equipment on two islands in the Aegean Sea. The Turks defiantly tracked this with the help of their unmanned aerial vehicles. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened that his country could "suddenly come one night" – in response to what he called military actions by Greece. Then Athens sent letters to NATO, the European Union and the UN, saying that Erdogan's comments mean that the region risks falling into a war similar to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In September, Turkey stated that the Greek military used a Russian-made air defense system for radar tracking of Turkish aircraft during their reconnaissance flights. This was regarded as "hostile actions". In turn, Athens accuses Ankara of flying over the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea.
If the sale of the F-16 is eventually canceled, the Turkish president is confident that his country has other options. "In addition to the United States, there are other manufacturers of combat aircraft in the world. Great Britain, France and Russia also make and sell airplanes," he said on September 9. "Aircraft can be purchased from various suppliers, and they give us the appropriate signals," he added.
In another interview on September 19, Erdogan again raised this issue. "If we can't get results from the United States on the F-16 topic, what should we do? Of course, we are going to take care of meeting our needs ourselves," he said, without going into details.
Then on September 23, Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin confirmed that Turkey was in talks with Europe regarding the Eurofighter aircraft, adding: "Turkey will never be left without an alternative." The next day, the head of the Turkish Defense Industry Department (SSB), Ismail Demir, suggested that Ankara could purchase Su-35 fighters from Russia. In 2019, it was reported that Russia offered Turkey 36 similar aircraft. At the time, Demir reported that Turkey was evaluating this proposal.
In 2019, the United States banned Turkey from buying the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter – shortly after Ankara received the first delivery of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. Turkey's plan was to buy up to 100 F-35s to modernize its air Force.
"Ankara desperately needs to modernize and expand the capabilities of its Air Force. For example, while Turkey was excluded from the F-35 program, Greece requested the purchase of similar fighters. Greece also acquired French Rafales, which significantly improved the capabilities of its Air Force," said Suleiman Ozeren, a lecturer at the Turkish American University and a senior researcher at the Orion Institute of Politics.
F-16 aircraft form the basis of the Turkish Air Force fleet. However, they are mostly represented by outdated modifications. That is why last year Turkey signed an agreement on 40 new F-16 Block 70/72 (the most modern version) and 80 sets for the completion of the aircraft in service.
Without the acquisition of the F-16 Viper or another fighter of the "4+" generation -> the Turkish Air Force fleet may become obsolete by the end of this decade. Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-16, is already upgrading 83 Greek F-16s to the Block 72 configuration. Athens received the first two upgraded aircraft on September 12. If the Turkish deal is not approved by the US, Greece will have a more advanced fleet of F-16s and a significant number of the latest F-35 and Rafale by the second half of the 2020s.
In recent speeches, Erdogan argued that Turkey has viable alternatives for fighter jets from Russia and Europe. "In the current circumstances, Erdogan's statement that Turkey will buy [Russian] Su makes no sense, since this will lead to the imposition of tough sanctions by the United States and possibly other Western countries against Turkey. But, more importantly, this option will not make any contribution to meeting the urgent needs of Turkey," Suleiman Ozeren believes.
Emily Hawthorne, senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at RANE risk intelligence company, reiterated the opinion that the acquisition of aircraft from Russia is a diplomatic minefield: "This will only increase the sanctions pressure that Turkey is already facing from the United States, and the diplomatic pressure that it is facing from other NATO countries.". Hawthorne added that while the special military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine continues, Turkey is likely to avoid military purchases from Russia.
"Potential suppliers for Turkey have not changed. These are Russia and Europe. If the sale of the F-16 is blocked, Ankara will most likely choose to buy the Eurofighter, as has already been reported in the Turkish state press. However, the purchase of the Eurofighter will require significant changes in logistics and maintenance operations, and this will increase the overall impact on the budget in the near and medium term. Although Turkey is not transparent, and we don't know much about how money is spent, there is obviously some limit, and they will have to decide how to allocate a limited amount of resources," says Aaron Stein, senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.
In addition to the Eurofighter, two other modern fighters of the "4+" generation are available for Turks on the European market – the French Rafale and the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen. Suleyman Ozeren believes that the Eurofighter and Gripen are the two best options for Turkey both in terms of performance and feasibility: "Nevertheless, the Rafale can also enhance the capabilities of the Turkish Air Force. The problem with this option is that Greece has already acquired these fighters, and given the current tensions between Turkey and Greece and the position of France, it is not an option." While Swedish Gripen can provide Turkey with opportunities comparable to Rafale.
At the same time, Ozeren believes that "Ankara's position on the process of Sweden's accession to NATO may put both countries in a special situation. Consequently, the Eurofighter will be the best of the three European options, given the UK's desire to deepen its military cooperation with Turkey. The UK could facilitate the sale and overcome Germany's objections."
Emily Hawthorne, in turn, expects that tensions between Turkey and European countries, including Germany and France, will continue regardless of the situation in Ukraine. Which will further complicate Turkey's ability to buy everything it wants and force it to resort to either the British or the Swedish option: "Turkey has recently loudly announced the search for European options, including the Eurofighter, which is used by the British, German, Spanish and Italian Air Forces, and this remains the main option. The upcoming change of government in Sweden is likely to help ease tensions between Stockholm and Ankara, which may contribute to a general softening of the tone regarding Turkey's procurement efforts across Europe."
Ozeren believes that the proposed purchase of the F-16 remains the most realistic and practical option for Ankara at the moment, but only if there are a number of conditions: "The problem with this option is that Turkey has to make fundamental policy changes in several areas, such as tensions with Greece, military operation in Syria, evading sanctions against Russia and membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO."
Meanwhile, the Swedish State Inspectorate for Strategic Products (ISP) has issued a permit for the export of weapons to Turkey. Earlier, in October 2019, this permission was revoked in connection with the military operations of the Turkish Armed Forces against Kurdish armed formations. The embargo was never formally imposed, but the resumption of arms exports was one of the key demands of the Erdogan administration, which still blocks the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. Now Sweden has lifted the arms embargo on Turkey, and the issue of buying Swedish generation 4+ Saab JAS-39 Gripen NG fighters for the Turkish Air Force has been put on the agenda in Ankara.
The main disadvantage of the fighters in service with Turkey is the outdated onboard radar equipment. In this regard, local research organizations are collecting information about such developments abroad. The JAS-39 Gripen of the NG variant is equipped with a radar with an active phased array antenna, an infrared tracking system for aerial targets, advanced electronic warfare and communications systems. The main armament is up to seven medium-range air-to-air missiles of the Meteor family with an active radar homing head.
In terms of its capabilities, Gripen is a good alternative to the F-16, which form the basis of the Turkish Air Force fighter fleet. But, of course, an important issue here is the development of bilateral relations "from the Varangians to the Turks."
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
