Instead of the Su-35S, Cairo is offered an ancient F-15 in a new versionSecurity in the Middle East has traditionally been provided either by a single dominant force or by external actors on the basis of agreements.
Today there are no institutions and mechanisms responsible for ensuring security – with the exception of agreements within the framework of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC).
In the absence of a format for maintaining security, there is a refraction of international polarization into regional polarization. As a result, the possibility of forming a "Middle Eastern NATO" was put on the agenda. Or the expansion of the existing North Atlantic Treaty by including the states of the Middle East in its composition. Their main task will be to protect them from region-wide threats, the main of which is terrorism, as well as to contain a specific regional force represented by Iran and its allies.
POLITICAL COMPETITION AND MILITARY CONTACTIn 2022, the Pentagon is concerned about the increased risks of a direct clash between the American and Russian military in Syria.
This was once again stated by the head of the central command of the US Armed Forces, Michael Kurilla.
Recently, the Russian Air Force attacked militant positions in southern Syria, near the Al-Tanf base, where American servicemen are stationed. Moscow claims that they are training radical forces, and insists on their withdrawal from Syria, believing that it is the United States that is destabilizing the situation in the region. American experts believe that in the context of a sharp aggravation of relations between Russia and the United States against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, any incident between the Russian and American militaries can have unpredictable consequences.
In turn, the Gulf states are seeking to diversify their international partnership in order to compensate for the gradual withdrawal of the United States from the region. Politics is a priority. In particular, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two US allies with large US military bases, have worsened their relations with Washington over the past two years due to disagreements over arms deals and various legal issues, as well as human rights issues.
RUSSIAN ARMS BUSINESSFor many years, Russia has been selling billions of dollars worth of modern, but relatively affordable (compared to Western systems) military equipment to Middle Eastern governments.
The arms deals included anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, attack helicopters, fighter jets and main battle tanks. Moreover, the choice of many Middle Eastern clients was predetermined due to the fact that their troops or arsenals already have Soviet/Russian weapons.
In the Persian Gulf, Russia's market position is more modest than that of the United States. Although Moscow is seeking to expand there as well: for example, it tried to use the participation of its military in Syria to advertise Russian weapons for export. At the same time, the Western embargo on the transfer of high technologies to Russia has prompted Moscow to try to acquire advanced military equipment and commercial technologies, cooperating with non-Western US allies who use American or European-made weapons systems.
Contrary to the Kremlin's best intentions, the current operation in Ukraine, as well as a number of previous conflicts involving Russian troops or weapons systems (in Karabakh, Libya and Syria) have raised serious questions about the survivability of advanced Russian weapons on the modern battlefield. For example, some samples of Russian armored vehicles and its latest missile defense systems (ABM) turned out to be vulnerable to Turkish-made attack drones.
In light of this, Arab countries may rethink future purchases of weapons from Russia. Given the good relations between the Gulf states and China, Beijing may suddenly find a free place in the market for its proposals.
Nevertheless, Arab experts believe that the UAE and Saudi Arabia do not want to lose relations with Russia, a strategic partner with the right of veto in the UN Security Council and an influential position in the global oil market.
So the Gulf states are unlikely to publicly oppose themselves to Moscow when it comes to their attitude to the special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.
AMERICANS ARE READY TO SACRIFICE THEIR PRINCIPLESAmerican experts recommend that their legislators lower the priority of the human rights sphere in order to knock out markets in the Middle East and North Africa from under Russian arms exports.
This is stated in the report of the Congressional Research Service – in the part that concerns military-technical cooperation with the Egyptians.
In particular, the authors of the study are confident that Capitol Hill "can weigh the value of receiving a promise from Egypt to cancel the purchase of Russian fighter jets in exchange for the opportunity to acquire American ones, as opposed to continuing concern about the poor human rights situation in Egypt." In this case, we are talking about a program for the sale of Russian Su-35 multipurpose fighters to Cairo.
The report says that "any reduction in the attractiveness of Russia as a military partner and source of weapons could open up (new) opportunities for the United States."
Until now, the US's close security partnerships with the authorities of some countries in the Middle East and North Africa have been complicated by the ongoing debate about the values of democracy. The research structure of the Congress explains why it pays attention to this aspect. In order to refute the thesis of reducing its military and political influence in the region against the background of the fighting in Ukraine, the Russian leadership may double its attention to the problems of the Middle East and North Africa and thus exert more pressure on the Western sphere of responsibility, the authors of the document suggest.
As reported by the Middle East online publication Al-Monitor, "the Biden administration plans to sell F-15 fighter jets to Egypt. The proposed sale has been worked out for many years and will definitely cause resistance on Capitol Hill."
The commander of the US Armed Forces in the Middle East (CENTCOM), Marine General Kenneth "Frank" Mackenzie, also said that the administration of President Joseph Biden plans to approve Egypt's long-standing request to sell him Boeing F–15 multifunctional fighter jets - despite serious resistance from US lawmakers due to human rights violations by the Cairo authorities.
"In the case of Egypt, I think we have good news, because we are going to provide them with F-15s," General Mackenzie told members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee. He also said the approval process for the sale "has been long and difficult" and that Egyptian officials "believe it took too long."
General Mackenzie's remarks suggest that the Biden administration is ready to abandon its human rights-based approach to foreign policy. And risk a potential showdown with lawmakers – in order to improve Washington's relations with Cairo.
Earlier this year, the Biden administration announced it would cut $130 million in annual U.S. security assistance to Egypt (totaling $1.3 billion) because Cairo failed to meet human rights benchmarks set by Washington.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who called Egypt's refusal a "slap in the face," tried to block the sale of 12 C-130J Super Hercules military transport aircraft worth $2.2 billion to Cairo due to human rights violations, but his resolution was rejected by the Senate. The objections to his resolution were based mainly on the arguments that the C-130J aircraft could not be used as an offensive weapon, unlike the F-15.
Human rights organizations say that about 60 thousand political prisoners remain in Egyptian prisons – almost 10 years after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power as a result of the 2013 coup.
But despite the Egyptian president's poor human rights record, the Biden administration continues to rely on the Egyptian government as an ally in the region.
THE FUSS OVER THE CONTRACTEgypt's interest in F-15 fighter jets dates back to the 1970s.
But Washington's approval for their sale to Egypt remained unattainable for a long time, although Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar received these combat aircraft. The United States has also sought to limit Egypt's acquisition of air-to-air missiles with a range of more than 80 km (50 miles), despite calls from Cairo.
When the United States suspended arms sales to Egypt after Sisi seized power in 2013, the Egyptian government sought to diversify purchases of military equipment by signing contracts for the supply of French Dassault Rafale fighter jets and Russian Su-35. Thus, with his speech, the head of CENTCOM warned that Cairo risks falling under the sanctions of the US Congress and receiving lower-level aircraft if it completes the implementation of the Su-35 deal.
I would like to note that the implementation of the contract concluded in 2018 for the supply of supposedly 30 Su-35 fighters for the Egyptian Air Force has been in a state of uncertainty for a long time. Deliveries of aircraft under the contract, it is believed, were to be made in 2020-2021. However, according to known data, so far no Su-35 has actually been delivered to Egypt. Although it seems that 30 aircraft were manufactured under this contract, but all of them are in storage.
Apparently, the Egyptian contract is "suspended" due to the threat of US sanctions against Egypt. And now, in the light of the new massive American sanctions imposed on Russia, its implementation has become problematic.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
