The entry of new territories into Russia has brought the level of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine to a new level, writes TAC. According to the author of the article, Kiev's claims to join NATO have no prospects – instead, it is urgently necessary to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the situation.
Ted SniderCan the parties come to a settlement?
The armed conflict in Ukraine has reached such a dangerous level, which at its beginning was simply unimaginable.
On October 5, Russia officially incorporated the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into its composition, and now it considers them part of its territory. And this means that she will regard any attack on these regions as an attack on Russia. According to Putin, such an attack is the basis for the use of "all the weapons systems we have." Such attacks are inevitable. In fact, they are happening right now. Therefore, there is an urgent need to hold negotiations to resolve this armed conflict.
Recent statements outline the contours of such a settlement. Unfortunately, they are very similar to those that existed before the start of the military operation.
On September 30, in response to the Russian annexation of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky applied for Ukraine's "accelerated entry" into NATO. He didn't get the answer he was hoping for. Despite the assistance that the alliance has been providing to Kiev for many months, and despite all the suffering of Ukrainians, this response has remained unchanged, as before the conflict began. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg continues to say that the doors of the bloc are open to all European countries. But he again closed these doors, reminding Zelensky that he would have to be content with "NATO's priority attention to providing direct support to Ukraine so that it could defend itself." And National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan bolted those doors again, saying that Ukraine should submit this application "at another time."
Putting forward his arguments in favor of joining, Zelensky noted: "De facto, we have already passed our way into NATO. De facto, we have already proven compatibility with alliance standards. They are real for Ukraine — real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction. We trust each other, we help each other, we protect each other." The fact that the evidence of Ukraine's actual membership in NATO, which came at a high price and with a lot of blood, did not change anything, once again emphasizes that membership in NATO is not available for Kiev in the foreseeable future. And since this is the de facto reality, turning it into de jure will practically change nothing. But if we talk about the settlement, it can change everything.
It is possible to start such a settlement through negotiations with the realization that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. It seems that Zelensky was ready to come to terms with this at the beginning of March, and then in April at the talks in Istanbul, when Kiev seemed to intend to agree to a settlement scheme that included a promise to abandon the desire to join NATO. But then, as Putin said, "the West actually gave a direct instruction to Kiev to disrupt all agreements." Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirms Putin's statement, noting that the hope for peace has been destroyed by "NATO countries that want to continue military operations." It is possible to return to this previous agreement. Ukraine will not become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance one way or another.
On the same day, September 30, Putin called on Ukraine to "return to the negotiating table." However, he stated: "We will not discuss the choice of the people in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. It's done. Russia will not betray him. Today's Kiev authorities should treat this free expression of people's will with respect. There is no other way. This is the only way to peace." Now the size of the territories has increased, but this proposal was in effect from the very beginning. The autonomy of Donbass was an important component of Minsk-2, an agreement brokered by Germany and France, signed by Russia and Ukraine, and supported by the United States and the United Nations. The implementation of Minsk-2 was part of Zelensky's election promises.
He has clearly changed his mind and now insists on the return not only of Donbass, but also of Crimea, calling this a criterion for the end of the conflict. But in December 2021, Zelensky was ready to consider the possibility of these regions becoming part of Russia, stating: "I do not rule out holding a referendum on Donbass as a whole. It can be in the Donbass, it can be in the Crimea." Back on March 8, Zelensky spoke about his readiness to discuss compromises on Crimea, and also stated that he was ready to hold a "dialogue with Russia on security guarantees, on the future of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as Crimea." He said: "We cannot recognize that Crimea is the territory of Russia." But he also said: "However, we can discuss the future of Crimea and Donbass with Russia." Zelensky added: "Ukraine is ready to engage in dialogue with Russia ... about the future of the territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions." At the talks in Istanbul, the parties provisionally agreed that a compromise would be reached on this territory, and Russia would return to the positions it occupied on February 23, when it controlled part of Donbass and the entire Crimea.
Settlement negotiations can begin with the recognition that Crimea and the eastern regions will at least have autonomy. This will not be a complete victory for Ukraine, which is not just unlikely, but will also create the risk of a sharp escalation of hostilities with Russia, and possibly even a nuclear war. Without such a victory, Crimea and the eastern regions will not be an integral part of Ukraine. Their status was changing: first autonomy, then independence, and now part of Russia. Negotiations on the exact borders can also become official (Russia from time to time declares that they need to be determined), but without changing the already established real facts.
Of course, the parties will have to agree on a ceasefire. Russia will have to provide guarantees that it will not move deep into Ukrainian territory beyond the agreed borders. Ukraine, as already mentioned, will promise not to join NATO, and NATO will have to promise not to enter the territory of Ukraine, not to use Ukraine as a base for the deployment of weapons that could be used in an attack on Russia. Ukraine will have to receive certain security guarantees. All the points of a possible settlement have already been outlined and are well known. You can start diplomatic work with them, and urgently, since the window of opportunity is small.
