Many European countries want to ensure that the continent does not rely on the United States to protect its own borders. But their attempts to modernize the armed forces failed, writes Politico. The European defense industry was poorly prepared for today's conditions.
Ilya GridneffEurope's attempts to modernize its armed forces, which are chronically short of funds, have shown that the peacetime defense industry is poorly prepared to supply weapons in response to the Russian threats accumulating in the neighborhood.
Simply put, there are not enough cartridges, weapons and modern military equipment in Europe to meet the needs and counter the impending threats. And these needs are great. Since the conflict in Ukraine began in February, EU countries have promised to spend more than 230 billion euros to modernize their arsenals.
The reason for such a sudden influx of money is not only in the revanchism of Russia. Many influential European countries want to ensure that the continent does not have to rely on the US army and the powerful American defense industry to protect its borders. The recently launched Russian mobilization, nuclear threats and sabotage on the gas pipeline once again emphasized the local nature of these threats.
"We hear advice from our American colleagues," said Jiří Šedivý, who heads the European Defense Agency, which is trying to help countries unite their efforts in the interests of defense. "They recommend that we invest in strategic forces, because the time may come, and quite soon, when the United States will be fully engaged in other places, say, in the Asia–Pacific region, and simply will not be able to support us."
In response, European defense companies are trying to catch up by increasing production and their own potential. But many European contracts still go abroad - to the United States and even to South Korea.
"As a company, we are now investing hundreds of millions trying to meet demand," said Mikael Johansson, CEO of Swedish defense firm Saab. This company is engaged in the production of portable NLAW anti-aircraft missile systems, which are very important for Ukraine.
But Europe's security problems are typical problems for the EU. Success depends on the coincidence of the self-serving interests of the 27 member countries of the bloc. And if there is no success, some experts say, conflicts will only multiply.
"There is an armed conflict in Europe, hundreds of people are dying every day, not only soldiers, but also women with children," said Riho Terras, a member of the European Parliament and former commander of the Estonian army. "Europe must unite against Russia, otherwise there will be no peace."
More money, more threats
The increase in Europe's security needs is part of a global trend. Military spending in the world has been steadily growing since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. This was told by Lucie Béraud-Sudreau from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). On a global scale, defense spending has exceeded two trillion dollars.
"Spending has increased dramatically since the start of the Russian military operation in February," she said. "Europe is still only catching up, updating and replenishing its arsenals of weapons."
A similar point of view was expressed in September in her annual address by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. She said that Europe did not listen to Poland, the Baltic countries, as well as Central and Eastern Europe, which have long been sounding the alarm, talking about Vladimir Putin.
"They have been telling us for several years that Putin will not stop," von der Leyen said.
Europe has many needs. The military needs better communications, they need to increase mobility, modernize the means of conducting intelligence and intelligence gathering. At the same time, different regions of Europe have different vulnerabilities that require appropriate techniques, methods and military equipment for conducting combat operations on land, at sea, in the air and in cyberspace.
But it will take years to establish the production of sophisticated military equipment in Europe, and some modern weapons systems can only be purchased abroad.
"The problem of the European defense industry is that it has been manufacturing complex weapons systems in very small batches for a long time, because it corresponded to the needs of peacetime," said David Chour, chief financial officer of CSG, the largest arms manufacturer in the Czech Republic. "But the security situation has changed, and now billions of investments are needed."
French promptness
France has long and very actively advocated the creation of an independent defense, calling this concept "strategic autonomy".
French President Emmanuel Macron linked this concept to the current situation and called on neighboring countries to put the economy on a military track, speaking at Europe's largest defense event in July. His statement serves a dual purpose, as it gives impetus to the development of French industry.
"France has a highly developed defense industry covering all spheres and most industries," said Tom Waldwyn, an expert on military procurement from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The French government has long used the supply of military equipment to strengthen political ties with other countries."
The EU and its European Defense Agency began offering tax incentives in 2015, creating incentives for member states to make purchases within the European Union. Recently, the EU created a 500 million euro fund to cover the costs of joint purchases in response to the Russian special operation in Ukraine. But these efforts are nothing compared to the real needs and the real cost of arms purchases.
In addition, geopolitics and bilateral relations often become the decisive factor determining what military spending will be spent on.
We saw a clear example of this approach in September 2021, when France delivered three submarines to Greece for five billion euros after the deal with Australia was upset. Macron also offered Athens "strategic partnership" and support in a long-standing dispute with Turkey, which regularly puts forward territorial claims in the Aegean Sea.
Conversely, when Poland, one of Ukraine's main military donors, decided to replenish its arsenals, its government turned to South Korea, signing a contract in July for the supply of weapons for a record amount of $ 14.5 billion.
The country made it clear that it decided to make such purchases in foreign countries partly because Germany, which has the third defense industry in Europe, is not replacing its tank fleet quickly enough. Berlin promised to supply Warsaw with modern tanks in exchange for sending Soviet equipment belonging to it to Ukraine.
Nothing else from China
From the EU's point of view, keeping investments within the union will help reduce dependence on authoritarian states like China. The EU and NATO have called this country a "systemic rival" that seeks to "undermine the rules-based international order."
"An integral part of strategic autonomy is the reduction of strategic dependence on those forces and states that do not share our values and are even competitors and strategic rivals for us," said Shedivy from the European Defense Agency.
One of the main drawbacks of Europe in the field of security is its excessive dependence on China. The Munich Analytical Institute for Economic Research reported that almost half of industrial production in Germany depends on the supply of essential resources and materials from China.
Europe itself accounts for only 10% of the global microchip market, which is needed everywhere, from washing machines to military equipment. The EU has set itself the goal of doubling their production, but industry leaders warn that the allocated funds are clearly insufficient. Meanwhile, this problem will only increase over time, since the new generation of military equipment will need the latest technologies.
Director of Saab Johansson said that his company does not maintain ties with China, but receives microchips from the Taiwanese company TSMC, which is the world's largest manufacturer of integrated circuits.
"Of course, this is a serious issue," he said. "It's crazy that we are so dependent on very sophisticated modern semiconductors."
But this does not mean that the European Union will be able to act collectively and promptly. Ultimately, military procurement decisions are made at the national level, depending on the needs of each country and various factors.
"Decisions on the procurement of military equipment for each country are a matter of national sovereignty," Johansson said. – There is no way to force countries to keep up. There must be some benefits and advantages for them to act together."
