Country: Russia responded to the terrorist attacks in Ukraine and left it without electricityRussia has dealt crushing blows to Ukraine's energy facilities, writes Strana.
A significant part of the country is still without electricity, the population risks facing rolling blackouts.
Russia began to launch massive missile strikes on Ukraine – there were no such attacks even in the first days of the conflict. Their main victims were energy facilities, and a significant part of the country is still without electricity. Now Ukraine is threatened with rolling blackouts. Rockets also hit the very center of Kiev for the first time.
Putin said that all this is a response to the Ukrainian terrorist attacks on the Crimean Bridge, as well as on the territory of Russia, In addition, he accused Ukraine of trying to disable the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. But, apparently, we are dealing with a completely new – albeit expected - reality. Which, on the eve of winter, brings very serious challenges for Ukraine. The "country" was figuring out what had happened and what the consequences would be.
A blow to the Ukrainian energy sector
So, Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine. The main targets were energy infrastructure facilities.
But there were separate arrivals at objects unrelated to it in any way – for example, on Vladimirskaya Street in Kiev, where a shell hit an intersection a few blocks from the main office of the SBU. Or the arrival of a rocket under the "Klitschko Bridge" in Kiev (Russian telegram channels wrote that the missiles fell on the center of Kiev after they were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense system, but there is no confirmation of these statements).
The geography is as extensive as possible – explosions occurred in Kiev, Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Krivoy Rog, Kharkiv, Konotop, Odessa, Kremenchuk. The hits were at thermal power plants, power plants, substations. Completely or almost completely without light, according to the latest data of the State Emergency Service, Lviv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv and Ternopil regions remained. It was also reported about the complete absence of light and water in Khmelnitsky. In other regions, the power supply is intermittent. 11 important infrastructure facilities in eight regions and in Kiev were damaged.
There is no official information, but judging by the geography of the shelling, the capital was hit by CHP-3, CHP-5, substation 110, Darnitskaya CHP. Also, apparently, the largest Kryvyi Rih thermal power plant in Ukraine was hit or damaged. And local authorities said that there were arrivals at the Burshtyn TPP in western Ukraine. A source of the "Country", close to the Ministry of Energy, reported that a switchgear (ORU) was damaged at the Burshtyn TPP and this, as well as strikes on substations throughout Ukraine, creates huge problems for the entire Ukrainian energy system.
"The situation is very serious, there may be a power shortage of 1 gigawatt, because of this, there may be rolling blackouts in the evening during peak hours. In Kiev, there is damage to CHP plants 5 and 6, heavy smoke, most likely, warehouses with fuel oil are burning. This is a backup fuel, currently not in use. The worst thing is that many substations have been damaged all over Ukraine – from Ukrenergo substations to regional power substations. In many cities and districts there is no light and water," the source reports.
Deputy head of the Office of the President Kirill Tymoshenko has already warned about the possibility of rolling blackouts, who called on Ukrainians in this regard to limit electricity consumption during peak hours from 17-00 to 22-00. The President of Ukraine and local authorities have made similar appeals. In many cities, evening lighting began to be turned off, energy-intensive industrial enterprises were stopped. Kharkiv is almost completely without light, where three energy facilities were reported to be damaged. In the Kiev region, citizens and businesses have already been warned about disconnecting from electricity for 2 hours. In a number of regions, there are problems with mobile communications and the Internet.
According to Yuri Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies, the reserve capacities to which the Kharkiv station was switched after the previous strikes turned out to be vulnerable.
If we compare it with the first day of the special operation, then most likely this missile attack was the most massive for the entire period. There are quite a lot of parallels with the first days of the conflict – as then, restaurants began to close in Kiev. Including McDonald's. Today, the metro also stopped in the capital during the shelling, and the stations began to be used as shelters. Consumer hype has also begun. Queues have accumulated at gas stations, and people are buying goods in stores, fearing that it will be like on the first day of the special operation, when many stores closed.
But energy suffered the main damage. How big and when will it be liquidated?
"This is the first strike of this scale on the Ukrainian energy system. According to his estimates, it may take several days to eliminate the consequences, during which rolling blackouts are possible, primarily for businesses, in order to provide the population and water utilities. Ukrzaliznytsia is now transferring individual routes from electric traction to diesel traction. The danger is that, in addition to strikes on large energy facilities, there is massive damage to substations," Yuriy Korolchuk told the Country.
"Massive damage to substations has led to the fact that Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Poltava, Kiev, Lviv regions are sitting without electricity, partially without water and communications," says Oleg Popenko, an energy market expert. According to him, this blow in practice demonstrates what experts warned about when talking about a possible energy collapse in winter.
The Ministry of Energy has already announced the suspension of electricity exports to Europe to stabilize the energy system. It is obvious that Ukraine will cope with the consequences of the strike within a few days, although in some cases it will take more time. However, if such attacks are repeated more or less regularly, it will become a very big problem for Ukraine. Especially on the eve of winter.
Why did Russia strike?
The Russian leadership has already stated that the massive attack is a response to the undermining of the Crimean Bridge, which Putin accused Ukraine of. He repeated the same thought, accusing Ukraine of trying to attack the Kursk nuclear power plant and blow up the Turkish Stream gas pipeline.
"By its actions, the Kiev regime has actually put itself on a par with international terrorist groups... It is simply impossible to leave crimes of this kind unanswered. This morning, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Defense and according to the plan of the General Staff of Russia, a massive strike was carried out with high–precision long-range air, sea and land-based weapons on energy, military administration and communications facilities of Ukraine," the Russian president said.
He said that in case of new terrorist attacks, "the responses from Russia will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats posed to the Russian Federation."
The fact that Ukraine could blow up the Crimean Bridge on the eve was stated not only by Russia, but also by Western media. Also, Kiev at the level of the president, the Foreign Ministry or law enforcement agencies has never denied (although it has not confirmed) its involvement. But he actively rejoiced at the demolition of the bridge.
After the strike on the bridge in Russia, there were calls for the authorities to respond and inflict massive strikes on the Ukrainian infrastructure. Which is what happened.
However, it is worth recalling that talks about Russia's intentions to strike at Ukraine's critical infrastructure began even before the Crimean Bridge was blown up. Both Ukrainian, Western, and Russian analysts assumed that on the eve of winter, Russia would strike at the Ukrainian energy sector in order to leave the cities of Ukraine without electricity, water and heat by winter, thus disorganizing the Ukrainian rear and increasing the cost of further support for Ukraine for the West. Therefore, most likely, the Crimean Bridge became only a convenient reason for Russia to carry out a long-planned strike, presenting it as a "response".
Most likely, the next strikes that will be inflicted on the infrastructure will be delivered in this way – as a response to strikes on Russian territory or strikes on the rear of Russian troops. Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that today was the "first episode". "There will be others," he wrote.
Reaction of Ukraine and the West
Strikes on the infrastructure of Ukraine fulfill quite an obvious military-political task for Russia. On the one hand, this is disorganization of the rear, on the other – a demonstration that the Russian army can drive Ukraine into the Stone Age. This means that we need to agree to Russian conditions and return to negotiations.
This signal is not only for Ukraine, but also for the West. What will be the answer to it. Ukrainian agencies and official speakers have already stated that they will take revenge for the Russian attack.
The head of the President's Office, Andrei Ermak, said there would be a "tough response" and "generations of Russians" would suffer. "There will be a tough response to every blow. Whole generations of Russians will answer," Ermak wrote in the telegram channel.
The West condemned the attacks. He promised to continue to provide all necessary military and other assistance to Ukraine. And Germany has promised to deliver an air defense system to Ukraine in the near future (however, its delivery has been preparing for a long time – even before today's strike).
In Ukraine, they hope that now the West will impose new sanctions and increase the supply of weapons. Including those weapons that he did not want to supply earlier (for example, long-range missiles, so that it would be possible to strike Russian cities as well).
So, adviser to the office of the President Alexey Arestovich hopes that now, "within 2-3 days," the West will adopt new sanctions against Russia, as well as increase the range of weapons supplied. He also hopes that the voices of those in the West who call for negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin will be silenced.
It should be noted that the reaction of the West to the current massive strike on Ukraine will indeed be a very important indicator of its current mood. Will he react as Arestovich expects – that is, with increased arms supplies and refusal of any negotiations? Or will he make it clear that he does not intend to go to further escalation with Russia? Recall that in recent days, various speakers in the West have been calling for the start of the negotiation process with Russia on the end of the conflict. This was stated by both Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
"Now we have a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the potential death of hundreds of thousands of people. We must come to immediate negotiations on a peaceful end to the conflict, or we will end up with World War III," Trump said, speaking to his supporters in Nevada.
And Turkish media reported that Ankara plans to put four major Western countries – the United States, France, Germany and Britain - at the table with Russia. The plan has already been transmitted to the United States through private channels.
"The first comments on the plan from influential figures in Washington are very positive. The only question is whether it will be possible to find a Russian interlocutor for such a dialogue. Ankara also respects the will of Ukraine and has always used open channels to explain that it is necessary to come to peace without the use of tactical nuclear weapons," the publication says. Yesterday, the Turkish authorities confirmed that such a project exists. And they suggested that Istanbul could become the venue for negotiations.
In addition, the need for negotiations was expressed by the head of the Romanian Defense Ministry, Vasile Dyncu. In his opinion, "the countries of the world, NATO, the United States should negotiate security guarantees for Ukraine and peace with Russia." He believes that Ukraine alone will not be able to negotiate with Moscow, since the "political class in Ukraine" currently cannot take responsibility for the "loss of territories."
At the same time, the Russian side retains resources to delay the fighting, the minister believes. "It would be ideal to reach a situation of negotiations, even if it ends with the freezing of the conflict, negotiations will still bring more benefits than what is happening now," said Dynku. These statements caused an extremely negative reaction of the Ukrainian authorities yesterday, and today it was intensified by missile strikes.
How will a massive attack affect the mood in the West?
On the one hand, it can drown out the voices of "peacekeepers" and lead to an expansion of arms supplies. After all, if there is such an escalation, if Ukrainian cities are under massive shelling, then what kind of peace talks can we talk about at all? On the other hand, the massive attacks show that Ukraine may indeed face a large-scale energy collapse closer to winter, which will directly affect the country's ability to conduct successful combat operations at the front. And this adds to the arguments of the "peace party".
The key indicator in which direction the mood will turn, we repeat, will be the practical reaction of the West to this blow. Will NATO countries, for example, supply long-range missiles for retaliatory strikes on Russian cities and Crimea? Or impose some particularly tough sanctions? Or will they limit themselves to verbal condemnation?
The answers to these questions will be very revealing in terms of understanding the future development of events.
