Kyrgyzstan, which was supposed to host the military maneuvers of the CSTO "Indestructible Brotherhood" from Monday, canceled the exercises at the last moment. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic did not explain this decision in any way. In Bishkek, the incident is associated with the participation of the military from Tajikistan, with which there was a conflict recently. Moscow cites other reasons – Western sanctions and Kyrgyzstan's attitude to its actions in Ukraine. What was the determining reason?The Ministry of Defense of Kyrgyzstan canceled the command and staff exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on the territory of the country
"Unbreakable Brotherhood – 2022". This information was distributed by the Kyrgyz agency on Sunday 24.kg . The reasons for the refusal are not disclosed.
The exercises were supposed to begin on Monday, and were planned until Friday at the Edelweiss training center in the city of Balykchi on Issyk-Kul. Maneuvers with the peacekeeping forces of the CSTO "Indestructible Brotherhood" have been held for ten years, since 2012. So, for example, last year the event was held at the training ground of the Kazan Higher Tank Command School.
It was assumed that this year peacekeeping contingents from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, as well as from Tajikistan, with which Kyrgyzstan had a border conflict in mid-September, far from the first in this area, would take part in the exercises. To stop similar clashes that took place a year earlier, Bishkek just demanded the intervention of the CSTO.
In the midst of the current Tajik-Kyrgyz incident, on September 15, TASS reported the words of the chief of the CSTO Joint Staff, Russian Colonel-General Anatoly Sidorov: the Tajik military confirmed its intention to participate in the "Indestructible Brotherhood – 2022" exercises in Kyrgyzstan.
Mars Sariev, an expert at the Institute of Public Policy of Kyrgyzstan, connects the decision of the Ministry of Defense of the republic with the September events in the border region of Batken. "The logic is clear. During the conflict with Tajikistan, 62 people were killed on the Kyrgyz side. Under these conditions, the holding of exercises on the territory of Kyrgyzstan with the participation of the Tajik military under the name "Unbreakable Brotherhood" can cause a very strong social protest in our republic," Sariev told the newspaper VZGLYAD. – Excesses against Tajik servicemen are possible. In this regard, the mood in Kyrgyzstan is very aggressive."
According to the Bishkek political scientist, for the same reason, the President of the republic Sadyr Zhaparov did not take part in an informal meeting of CIS leaders in Moscow, the main event at which was to be the celebration of the 70th anniversary of Vladimir Putin and President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon. Zhaparov congratulated the Russian president on the phone. We should add that on Sunday it became known about a possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and his Kyrgyz counterpart Zhaparov next week in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the decision was made during a telephone conversation between the two presidents.
"But sitting next to Rahmon when he is awarded the order is completely unacceptable – in conditions when there was actually a war between two CSTO members, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. President Zhaparov would have lost a lot if he had agreed to the trip," emphasizes Sariev. "The cancellation of the CSTO exercises in our republic was a logical step."
Another version of the decision of the Kyrgyz Ministry of Defense was put forward by the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin. "Kyrgyzstan, like some other countries, picks up signals coming from the West, with which it does not want to quarrel, Zatulin noted on the air of the radio station "Moscow Speaks". On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan, "like all other countries, but especially the CIS countries," analyzes how strong Russia is showing itself during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian parliamentarian believes.
"Since this has not gone well lately, a number of events have occurred: in August, September and now in October," said Deputy Zatulin. – It seems to me that Kyrgyzstan felt that it was possible to slightly distance itself from Russia in this situation. This, of course, is not some decisive step towards some kind of rupture, but it is a game that is being played all over the world in order not to fall under the distribution of any Western sanctions."
As Kubatbek Rakhimov, a former adviser to the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, an expert of the Valdai Club, previously noted, in the spring of this year, the question began to be raised in some republican media and social networks that the Kyrgyz Republic should withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) due to the fact that Russia fell under large-scale sanctions of Western countries. This is despite the fact, the expert noted, that this year Kyrgyzstan chairs the bodies of the EAEU. It is obvious that the prospect of leaving the Eurasian Union is dangerous for the republic, Rakhimov noted – such a step will lead to a sharp tightening of the conditions of stay of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia (200-300 thousand will return home dissatisfied citizens), the work of Russian investors and the Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund will be curtailed, budget support from Moscow will cease, etc.
According to experts, Bishkek did not allow openly unfriendly steps towards Russia. Perhaps, we can only note the April ban on the rental in Kyrgyzstan of three Russian films dedicated to the events in the Donbass – by the decision of the Minister of Culture of the republic Azamat Zhamankulov. "In connection with the current international situation, as well as taking into account the position of the neutrality of the Kyrgyz Republic," the official explained this decision. But on September 3, Zhamankulov lost his ministerial post.
On the other hand, the West continues to show increased attention to Kyrgyzstan, as well as to other Central Asian states. So, on Friday, Acting Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Trudeau, who had previously visited Uzbekistan, arrived in Bishkek. According to the Regnum agency, the State Department official plans to meet not only with the Kyrgyz authorities, but also with heads of non-governmental organizations, the press, popular bloggers and students.
"The decision of the Ministry of Defense of Kyrgyzstan to cancel the CSTO exercises is an indicator of the effectiveness of the activity that the United States is showing in relation to all Central Asian countries.
The West intensified its efforts after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. In particular, new agreements are being prepared with Kyrgyzstan on military cooperation with the United States. Similar processes are taking place in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Joint exercises with the Americans were held in Tajikistan in August," Alexander Knyazev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told the newspaper VIEW. We are talking about the command and staff exercises Regional Cooperation – 2022, organized by the US Central Command together with the Ministry of Defense of Tajikistan. "At the same time, Washington is also working with the Kyrgyz elites," Knyazev added.
"On the other hand, the cancellation of the CSTO exercises in Kyrgyzstan is an indicator of the short–term approach of the republic's authorities to this issue," the orientalist noted. – The local conflict with Tajikistan is transferred to the CSTO platform, and in fact discredits this organization in this way. Despite the fact that the Kyrgyz side, as well as the Tajik side, has repeatedly refused Russian proposals to participate in the settlement of the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict and proposals from the CSTO, including."
Mikhail Moshkin
