Vyacheslav Filippov — how the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine divides the German governmentGerman Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said in September that the Federal Republic was "150% on the side of Ukraine" and that it would supply Kiev with weapons as much as needed.
Nevertheless, Berlin has not yet satisfied the main desire of the Ukrainian side — the transfer of German battle tanks to it, despite all the criticism, accusations and attacks from the politicians of Nezalezhnaya.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz argued in different ways for the refusal to supply Leopard and Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Kiev: he argued that the Bundeswehr itself did not have enough tanks to transfer to Ukraine, then that the Ukrainian military did not know how to handle them, then that obligations to NATO did not allow this. And finally, the last argument, and probably the most truthful, was the warning that if Ukraine receives more advanced weapons, the conflict may escalate and escalate into a third world war, consider an atomic war.
In addition, from Berlin's point of view, it is dangerous to use the most modern types of weapons in the conflict zone, because if this equipment falls into the hands of the enemy, he can use it to improve his combat systems and then use it in a confrontation with NATO.
According to a report published by the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, Germany has already supplied Ukraine with military goods worth €686 million. Among the weapons are: Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, Mars multiple launch rocket systems, Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns, IRIS-T air defense system. The German authorities also announced that they would send 50 more Dingo armored vehicles and 2 Mars MLRS to the Ukrainian authorities. But the ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), whose representative is Scholz, does not intend to supply combat tanks yet.
Pressure abroad and at home
Against the background of the events in Ukraine, the SPD has not changed its position on any other issue as radically as on the issue of arms exports. This, however, also applies to its coalition partners — the Greens, who, first of all, Berbok and the head of the Ministry of Economy Robert Habek, apparently, set the tone in the government regarding the supply of weapons to Kiev.
The SPD and Scholz are under the strongest pressure on this issue both within the country and in the cabinet, as well as from NATO partners. The anti-pacifist turn of the Greens, the increasing pressure from the CDU/CSU opposition bloc could not but force Olaf Scholz to meet many of Ukraine's demands.
The leader of the German opposition, Friedrich Merz, believes that the moment has come right now when the policy of restraint on the transfer of weapons to Kiev needs to be ended. "Germany should at least be ready to join the group of European countries to supply combat tanks to Ukraine and issue appropriate export permits," he said. "The Chancellor, due to his slowness in efforts to support Ukraine, has caused doubts at the international level about the determination of the German government," the Christian Democrat believes.
"We only do what others do," is Scholz's main message. However, NATO allies would also like more activity from Germany. For example, the new American ambassador to Berlin, Amy Gatmann, said in an interview a few weeks ago that she had "high hopes" for Germany in supporting Ukraine. In the ruling circles, according to local media, at first they did not take her words too seriously, but after she wrote on Twitter that "the decision on what kind of assistance should be ultimately made by each country itself," they became worried. According to the German government, Gatmann signaled to Berlin that it was not necessary to constantly refer to the United States, but it was necessary to take more responsibility on oneself.
Scholz is not ready to go that far yet
Germany's leading Social Democrats have always maintained that German weapons should never again be used against Russian soldiers. Already now the reality looks different: it hits the Russians in the Donbass, and many experts believe that the successful offensive in the Liman direction of the AFU is largely due to the German ZSU and howitzers.
At the same time, the line between "defensive" and "offensive" weapons, which Berlin clearly drew at first, has long been erased. Gepard is used by Ukrainians during the offensive in the same way as Panzerhaubitze 2000. According to observers, the Biber tank bridge-laying machines promised by Germany are designed to accelerate the APU offensive, and not to defend themselves at all.
Scholz is obviously starting to get annoyed by the discussion about the supply of tanks. According to Der Spiegel magazine, he does not tolerate "experts" who "overnight turned from conservationists into war—loving fools, as if war is a game"[i].[/i] Meanwhile, the Federal Chancellor's Office expects that a particularly dangerous phase of the conflict is now in Ukraine, the publication writes.
Berlin is currently limited to the so-called circular exchange, when other countries, such as the Czech Republic or Slovakia, supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, in particular Soviet-style tanks, and Germany then undertakes to provide them with military equipment of its own production in return.
"Germany supplies everything Ukraine really needs," Scholz's entourage says. I come to the conclusion that the Chancellor has no plans to expand the arms supply program yet. Here, however, we must admit that there are no such plans "yet", because Olaf Scholz has never ruled out anything, including possible deliveries of combat tanks.
Germany's middle position
In a certain sense, the Federal Republic among Western states takes a middle position in the context of tense relations with Moscow: it is not a superpower like the United States, it does not possess atomic weapons like France or Great Britain. Can say: this is a strong country without the potential to deter a potential enemy. Economically powerful and one of the most important Western countries, Germany becomes an easy target in the event of a global conflict. Apparently, this is what Scholz proceeds from in his policy, which does not want to provoke Moscow once again.
His restraint is not particularly welcome in Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine, but the Chancellor does not change course. It is significant here again that until recently the "aggressive" line of the Cabinet of Ministers was mostly represented by the "greens", and with them Annalena Berbok.
In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, she called for a quick decision on the issue of supplying combat tanks to Kiev, but later on the ARD TV channel she stressed that Germany would not take unilateral steps, repeating the position of Olaf Scholz. Many "greens" were shocked by such restraint of the minister, some even called her speech a "disaster". There were rumors that the chancellor's Office "pulled back" Berbok, asking not to deviate from the course of the head of government. Other "greens" are now speaking for the minister in favor of the supply of tanks, in particular, the head of the Bundestag Committee on European Affairs Anton Hofreiter.
Scholz's moderation does not mean at all that Berlin will refuse to transfer weapons to Kiev, the question is what kind of weapons it will be. The Chancellor's Office constantly holds meetings of the so-called crisis headquarters for Ukraine, where new opportunities for arms supplies are being studied, but, according to media reports, the supply of Leopard, so desirable for Kiev, is somehow excluded from the discussions. Moreover, the German government blocked the transfer of these tanks to Ukraine from Spain, and also did not allow the supply of the Marder batch prepared by the Rheinmetall defense concern.
The German authorities are now more busy considering alternative options — for example, they are studying the provision of Fennek light reconnaissance armored vehicles to Ukraine together with the Netherlands.
The discussion is not over
Nevertheless, the discussion around Ukraine and Leopard has by no means ended. On Thursday, the chairman of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman (Free Democratic Party), who had repeatedly advocated for the provision of combat tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, went to the former Soviet Republic. Obviously, her trip is intended to increase pressure on the Chancellor on this issue.
On Friday, she is expected to meet with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov and the head of the office of the Ukrainian President Andrey Ermak. "I would like to get an idea on the ground and talk to those who are literally on the front line in order to hear what else we can do," Strack—Zimmerman told Der Spiegel magazine. The deputy noted that she also wants to understand how seriously Kiev is interested in Western tanks.
The head of the Bundestag committee believes that the Ukrainian army needs Marder first of all at this phase. "If there is an intention to retake territories in the east of Ukraine, then, in my understanding, this [Marder supplies] makes sense. The Marder infantry fighting vehicles are just made to attack positions," she claimed. At the same time, Strack-Zimmerman rejected the assessment that the Ukrainian military cannot service the BMP. "This argument is outdated," the deputy said. "We don't have to constantly wait for someone else to make the first move," she added.
Thus, Strack-Zimmerman directly contradicts Scholz. In April, she already visited Ukraine — together with Hofreiter and Social Democrat Michael Roth. All three demanded supplies of heavy weapons to Kiev. The Chancellor criticized them at the time, saying: "To some of these guys and girls, I have to say: that's why I'm in charge, because I'm not doing what you want." It is curious what Scholz will say in response to this visit by Strack-Zimmerman.
