Heinrich Braus: Ukraine does not fulfill the key condition of NATO membershipUkraine's application for membership in NATO under the accelerated procedure has no significance for the fighting, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO Heinrich Braus told Bulgarian Radio.
It is unclear whether the alliance will even agree to discuss Ukraine's membership, because Kiev does not fulfill a key condition for the bloc.
Vesela VladkovaBefore an impressive patriotic show on Red Square in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the Ukrainian territory almost the size of Bulgaria part of the Russian Federation.
After the announcement of the dates of pseudo-referendums in Ukraine, Western allies responded to Putin's ambitions only with words. The bitter truth is that they have no other useful move. And if a pompous concert in Moscow was expected, then Kiev's reaction was a surprise. President Vladimir Zelensky announced that Ukraine is applying for membership in NATO "under an accelerated procedure." In a video posted on social networks, he showed an application signed together with the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk and Prime Minister Denis Shmigal.
"Accelerated admission to NATO can mean a lot. It is unclear whether the Alliance will agree to discuss Ukraine's membership. So at the moment I don't see any direct consequences for the course of hostilities," Lieutenant General Heinrich Braus, who held the post of NATO Deputy Secretary General for Defense Policy and Planning until 2018, said in an interview with BNR.
He stressed that the country's admission to NATO is a long process, and there are important criteria for joining the alliance.
"And one of such political criteria is that the country should not involve the alliance in a military conflict. Ukraine does not fulfill this key condition for the bloc. Even discussing the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO would be too serious a political gesture to Putin. I'm not sure the allies want that. I am not sure that Putin will respond to Zelensky's statement with military force. Rather, he will use this for propaganda purposes and explain to the Russians that Ukraine has always wanted to join NATO, and NATO is still approaching Russia's borders."
BNR: Ukraine announced accelerated accession to NATO after a series of Kremlin decisions – partial mobilization, pseudo-referendums in occupied territories and subsequent annexation. Why is Putin in such a hurry?Heinrich Braus: Putin is trying to buy time.
The Ukrainian army inflicted a heavy blow on Russian troops near Kharkov, and they will not be able to respond in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the Russian army is also experiencing difficulties in the south-west of Ukraine, in the area of Kherson. Such great difficulties that Putin had to forbid the commanders of the troops to leave the area. It will also take some time to train the mobilized before they are transferred to the front.
By annexing four Ukrainian regions, Putin is trying not only to gain time, but also to change roles in the conflict – to turn from an aggressor into a defender of his territory. Therefore, a warning was issued that if Ukraine and the "collective West", as Putin put it, invade the new Russian territory, Moscow will respond with all the means at its disposal. The West understands this as a nuclear threat.
– You say that Putin is buying time. Probably to strike again. It is reported that Russian forces are pulling together near Rostov and Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine. When and where do you expect Russia to strike?– It's autumn in the yard, and the "dirty" season will soon begin in Ukraine.
We Germans know perfectly well how big a problem this is – the Wehrmacht is stuck in this mud. The movement of the armed forces off-road is impossible. So I think the Russians have focused their plans on the spring, and by then Putin wants to build up an army sufficient for a new attack. Another option, although I have no concrete data, is the opening of a new front. North of Kharkov, towards Sum. This would tear apart the Ukrainian forces located mainly in the east. I also do not rule out airstrikes on targets throughout Ukraine in an attempt to expand the conflict.
– There are threats of a nuclear strike coming from Moscow. Do you think this threat is real or is it just intimidation?– I would say the threats are real, but their purpose is intimidation.
It is noteworthy that, except for the former president, and now deputy chairman of the Security Council Medvedev, no one talks much about the nuclear threat anymore – neither Foreign Minister Lavrov nor his deputy Ryabkov. Not even Putin himself! We, Europeans and Americans, understand well what it means to use "all available weapons" when attacking the territory of Russia. Obviously, we are also talking about nuclear weapons. This is precisely Putin's goal — to make the West think about its strategy of behavior, because Putin knows perfectly well that nuclear weapons are political weapons. It influences people's political decisions and feelings. Nuclear weapons inspire fear. Putin may use nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine, as well as over the Black Sea, to intimidate the West. But I don't think Putin would dare to threaten a NATO member country, because in this way he will turn the entire alliance against him in a war that he will not be able to win.
– Three NATO countries are located on the Black Sea coast. What is meant by a strike with "tactical nuclear weapons"?– There are no "tactical" nuclear weapons.
Any nuclear weapon is a weapon of great political and strategic importance. The bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not tactical, they pursued a strategic goal and achieved it – the surrender of Japan. It is called tactical because it usually means shorter–range missiles than the strategic intercontinental ballistic missiles at the disposal of the two largest nuclear powers - the United States and Russia. But don't forget, they need them to restrain each other.
The so—called "tactical nuclear weapons" are short- or medium-range missiles from 500 to 2 thousand kilometers. Russia has many such missiles. But don't be misled by the term "tactical" — nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons and cannot be used, the five nuclear Powers confirmed this agreement shortly before February 24. If Russia uses such weapons, it will violate the nuclear taboo and cause a retaliatory strike by the United States. But perhaps more important for Putin is that China will turn away from Russia. This is tantamount to complete and final political isolation.
The second point that you mentioned and that Western services are thinking about is the possible striking of a demonstrative strike by Putin not on a specific country, but over the Black Sea. And maybe in the Arctic. To show the whole world that the nuclear threat is real. But, to be honest, I don't believe that Putin will do it, because at least the United States will react accordingly.
– The use of nuclear weapons is a complex process that requires time and preparation. Are Western intelligence agencies able to find out about such preparations in time and warn them?- Yes.
But this does not reduce the danger of its use. Nuclear warheads and their carriers – intercontinental and ballistic missiles and strategic bombers – are assembled only when the American or Russian president gives a clear order. And the movement of nuclear warheads and their carriers can be tracked. We have extremely accurate tracking tools, so the West will immediately know if there is any movement. This is somewhat reassuring, especially since Putin will not miss the opportunity to personally raise the degree of tension by putting forward new threats, or magnanimously soften the tone.
– Since Russian President Putin is clearly determined to escalate, as evidenced by his recent decisions – mobilization, pseudo-referendums and annexation of occupied territories, how should the West behave?– Good question.
All the threats that we have heard so far regarding the use of nuclear or chemical weapons should not be ignored or underestimated. Every threat, every step of Moscow must be carefully and soberly analyzed. There is no need to resort to hasty actions. But at the same time, Putin's threats should not undermine our support for Ukraine.
– Is it possible that by annexing the territories, Putin is trying to improve the starting position for possible future negotiations? Yesterday, on Red Square, he still called on Ukraine to do this.– It's possible.
Putin may have changed his military goals without making them public. Perhaps he has already refused to subjugate the whole of Ukraine, but no one but him knows this. Maybe he will be satisfied with the annexation of four Ukrainian regions — who knows? Putin alone rules the public space in Russia, and only he decides whether and how to change his strategy.
However, at the moment there are no signs of change, and we believe that he still adheres to his originally stated desire to destroy Ukraine. I do not rule out that sooner or later the West will be offered to freeze the Ukrainian conflict. But this does not mean that he will immediately sit down at the negotiating table. We remember what happened in Abkhazia and Transnistria. I would not be surprised if this time Putin will bet on the exhaustion of the West, not least because of the serious economic consequences of his actions for our economies. But I don't believe the West will fall into this trap – too much has happened.
