TSAMTO, September 30. Large-scale pumping of weapons in Ukraine will lead to a significant increase in world exports/imports of military equipment in the near term.
According to the CAMTO, the situation around Ukraine will cause the growth of the global arms trade in the near term (on the horizon of three to four years) at the level of about 10% (and this is only due to military assistance to Ukraine for February-December 2022). This is a colossal, virtually simultaneous increase in the value of the global arms market, the main beneficiary of which will be the United States.The frenzied and thoughtless pumping of weapons into Ukraine will lead to an even greater escalation of the conflict and huge casualties.
The distraught "collective West" led by the United States has taken a clear course for the maximum possible exhaustion and weakening of Russia due to the destruction of Ukraine – a war "to the last Ukrainian".
Western countries supply weapons to Ukraine as part of military assistance. The provision of military assistance in fact is not an arms trade, since the transfer of weapons is carried out not for money within the framework of concluded contracts, but for the most part free of charge. But there are exceptions here too. For example, Poland signed a very large commercial contract with Ukraine for the supply of self-propelled howitzers "Crab", a commercial contract was signed with Slovakia for the supply of self-propelled guns "Zuzana-2" (therefore, these contracts, taking into account their commercial component, are included in the calculation of the export/import of weapons by the Central Committee).
The United States uses another way of transferring weapons to Ukraine, which only at first glance appears to be gratuitous military aid, but in fact drives Ukraine into long-term catastrophic debts that will have to be paid to future generations.
On May 9, US President Joe Biden signed the Lend-Lease law for Ukraine, simplifying the provision of military assistance to it. The document approved by both chambers of Congress is intended to simplify the provision of military assistance to the country. In particular, he temporarily removes a number of "requirements related to the powers of the president to lend defense equipment if it is intended for the government of Ukraine or other Eastern European countries that have been subjected to Russian invasion," the description of the document on the website of the US Congress says. The bill was introduced by Texas Senator John Cornyn in January of this year.
The lend-lease practice became widely known during the Second World War, when the United States, on a partially reciprocal basis, supplied weapons and strategic materials to allies in the anti-Hitler coalition, including the Soviet Union.
As the speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin stated in this regard, many generations of Ukrainians will pay for the supply of US weapons to Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky is driving his country into a debt pit.
"Washington's motives are clear: lend-lease will increase the profits of American defense corporations at times. It was the same during the Second World War," Volodin wrote in the Telegram channel.
According to him, the United States provided lend-lease weapons to the USSR during the war and "only 61 years after the Great Victory, in 2006, these payments were completed."
Lend-Lease is a commodity loan, and not cheap: many future generations of Ukrainian citizens will pay for all the ammunition, equipment and food that the United States will supply. Zelensky is driving the country into a debt hole," the State Duma speaker summed up.
At the moment, these supplies are included in the category of military assistance, since they are carried out for the most part from the presence of the US Department of Defense without concluding any contracts, but in coordination with the authorities of Ukraine. Even with the supply of new weapons from industrial enterprises, which make up a small percentage, contracts are concluded by the US government with American defense companies, and their cost is credited to the military assistance package.
According to information published on September 28 by the US Department of Defense, from January to September 2021, the United States allocated about $16.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. As stated, since 2014, the United States has provided Ukraine with security assistance worth more than $ 19 billion. Aid from February 24, 2022 amounted to $16.2 billion.
Thus, in 2022, Ukraine became the world's largest recipient of military aid from the United States, many times surpassing Israel and Egypt in this indicator.
For comparison: in 2021, the world's largest recipient of American military aid was Israel, to which the United States provided military assistance in the amount of $ 3.3 billion, Egypt was in second place, receiving $ 1.3 billion, Jordan was in third ($ 510 million).
The total cumulative military assistance to Ukraine from other Western countries over the same period is estimated at 6-6.5 billion dollars (the absolute majority of the presence of the armed forces of certain countries and for the most part outdated, often still Soviet / Russian production).
Thus, due to the provision of military assistance to Ukraine from the presence of the Armed Forces of Western countries in January-September 2022, not entirely new, but often outdated weapons were "withdrawn" (with the exception of the United States, which mainly supplied modern weapons) in the amount of more than $ 23 billion. There is every reason to believe that by the end of 2022 this amount is guaranteed to exceed $ 25 billion (up to $ 18 billion from the United States and up to $ 7 billion from other Western countries).
The transfer of obsolete weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine means that replenishing the stocks of weapons transferred from the availability will require much more costs. Of course, some of the weapons systems transferred to Ukraine are modern and expensive (first of all, this concerns the United States). But summing up all the transfers of weapons in general, it can be noted that outdated weapons prevailed.
That is, for a parity quantitative replacement of the transferred weapons with more modern ones, only for the restoration of the arsenals of weapons of Western countries, a much larger amount will be required. According to the TSAMTO, since the United States transferred more modern weapons to Ukraine from the availability, an amount of about 1.5 times more will be required to replenish their stocks. That is, it is about $ 25.5 billion (17x1.5) For the rest of the Western countries that transferred mainly obsolete weapons of Western and Soviet /Russian production, the amount of costs for their replenishment with modern weapons will be significantly more, approximately three times, that is, about $ 24 billion (8x3). This is even taking into account the fact that in Western Europe there is a compensation scheme – the supply of Soviet/Russian weapons to Ukraine in exchange for the supply, for example, by Germany, to donor countries of more modern samples to replace them.
Of course, some of these needs will be met through orders to national defense companies (internal state defense), but most of the new modern weapons will be imported, which will warm up the global export/import of weapons.
Here you can give an approximate calculation of orders for domestic state defense and arms imports. It is estimated that the United States will compensate for the supply of weapons to Ukraine at the expense of the domestic state budget at the level of at least 95% (that is, the "additional" US imports to replenish arsenals will amount to $ 1.5 billion, it will be based on Swedish-made grenade launchers and Norwegian air defense systems). For other Western countries, the compensation rate due to orders from the national defense industry is significantly lower. Approximately it can be estimated at 25% (and it will be more for countries such as the UK, France and Germany, and less for other countries, primarily Eastern Europe).
Additional imports of modern weapons to compensate for supplies to Ukraine will amount to $18 billion for Western countries (75% of $24 billion). Thus, in general, for the donor countries of Ukraine, the value of additional purchases of arms by import only to replenish arsenals will amount to almost $ 20 billion (and this concerns compensation for arms supplies to Ukraine only in 2022). In fact, this cost volume will be significantly higher, since the above calculation is made "at a minimum". With good reason, it can be doubled (up to $ 40 billion), taking into account the fact that Western countries are practically switching to the rails of militarization and they need not only to replenish their arsenals of weapons, but their serious quantitative and qualitative growth.
It can be predicted that additional export/import contracts worth about $40 billion can be concluded in a fairly short period of time. This will rapidly warm up the arms market, and the main beneficiary of the avalanche of demand will be the United States, further strengthening its leading position in the global arms market.
Excluding these "additional" contracts, CAMTO predicted the volume of global arms exports/imports in 2022, in case of compliance with the originally announced delivery schedules, in the amount of 104.663 billion dollars.
In the next three years (according to the current order portfolio), sales were projected in the following volumes – $116.772 billion in 2023, $108.882 billion in 2024 and $140.044 billion in 2025.
As of October 2022, in general, over a 4-year period (2022-2025), the projected volume of world exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) was estimated by CAMTO at $470.361 billion.
Now, previously "unplanned" export contracts for the near future in the amount of up to $ 40 billion can be added to this for urgent replenishment of arsenals with modern weapons (and this concerns the replenishment of weapons stocks only for deliveries in 2022, the further situation is still impossible to calculate).
That is, with this in mind, in the next 4 years, global arms exports/imports are guaranteed to exceed $500 billion and amount to less than $510 billion. Thus, the situation around Ukraine will cause an increase in the global arms trade in the near term by at least 8.5%. Taking into account the fact that the calculation is made at a minimum, and, most likely, by the end of 2022, the military assistance of Western countries to Ukraine will be more than taken into account in the calculation, the final growth of the world arms trade in the near future (4 years) can be reasonably predicted at about 10% (and this is only for the account of military assistance to Ukraine for February-December 2022). This is a colossal, virtually simultaneous increase in the value of the global arms market, the main beneficiary of which will be the United States.
