Western experts do not exclude the possibility of the most severe consequencesOn September 25, National Security Adviser to the US President Jake Sullivan said in an interview with NBC that Washington "directly privately" and "at a very high level" notified the Russian leadership about the catastrophic consequences of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
"We were frank with them and stressed that the United States will give a decisive response together with our allies and partners," the adviser said, declining to give any details.
PRESIDENT PUTIN'S STATEMENTWhen threatening its territorial integrity, Russia uses all the means at its disposal.
This statement was made on September 21 by Russian President Vladimir Putin in a televised address to the citizens of Russia.
The President stressed: "Washington, London, Brussels are directly pushing Kiev to transfer military operations to our territory. They are already openly saying that Russia should be defeated by all means on the battlefield, followed by the deprivation of economic, political, cultural, and in general any sovereignty, with the complete plundering of our country. Nuclear blackmail was also used. We are talking not only about the Western-encouraged shelling of the NPP, which threatens an atomic catastrophe, but also about the statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons against the Russian Federation."
Russia uses all means to defend itself, Putin warned: "I want to remind those who make such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of destruction, and in some components more modern than those of NATO countries, and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people we will certainly use all the means at our disposal. This is not a bluff."
In his address, the President also announced the beginning of partial mobilization and that the relevant decree had been signed. "Only citizens who are currently in reserve and, above all, those who have served in the Armed Forces, have certain military accounting specialties and relevant experience will be subject to conscription for military service. Those called up for military service before being sent to units will necessarily undergo additional military training, taking into account the experience of a special military operation," Putin said.
He stressed that Russia will ensure safe conditions for holding referendums in the liberated territories and in the republics of Donbass: "The parliaments of the People's Republics of Donbass, as well as the civil-military administrations of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions have decided to hold a referendum on the future of these territories. And they turned to us, to Russia, with a request to support such a step. I would like to emphasize that we will do everything to ensure safe conditions for holding the referendum. So that people can express their will."
Putin noted that Russia will support the decision of the residents of these territories: "We cannot, we have no moral right to give people close to us to the executioner. We cannot but respond to their sincere desire to determine their own destiny."
The initiative to immediately hold a vote on the entry of the republics of Donbass into Russia was taken by the public chambers of the LPR and the DPR. With such a request, they appealed to the heads of the regions. The authorities of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions also announced their intentions to hold referendums.
THREATS AND COMMENTSAdviser to the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak said that the West will have to respond if Russia uses nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine.
"Other nuclear states should firmly state that as soon as Russia even thinks about launching nuclear strikes on foreign territory – in this case, on the territory of Ukraine – rapid retaliatory strikes will be launched to destroy launch pads in the Russian Federation," the Guardian quotes him as saying.
Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson immediately criticized Mikhail Podolyak for calling on the United States to launch preventive nuclear strikes against Russia. He called such statements inappropriate. According to Carson, these appeals speak of the insanity of their author. "In response to Putin's words, the Ukrainian government called for an immediate nuclear attack on Russia, which, without a doubt, would lead to the immediate destruction of New York, Washington, Los Angeles... Sane people don't say that, ever," the TV presenter said.
Carlson believes that now is the right time for the administration of US President Joseph Biden to put pressure on Kiev and achieve a resolution of the Ukrainian conflict through peaceful negotiations. At the same time, he complained that the White House is not doing anything in this situation and continues to pump the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons.
The head of the European Diplomacy, Josep Borrel, called on the European Union to take seriously the threat of Russia's use of nuclear weapons. According to him, everyone who went to Moscow and visited the Kremlin received the same answer from Putin: "I have military goals, and until they are achieved, I will continue to conduct military operations."
The fact that Putin is not bluffing when talking about protecting Russia with nuclear weapons was stated by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. He expressed hope that "peace will come, and everyone will do everything in their power to find a compromise solution." According to him, this is "much better than waiting for the defeat of the other side."
The representative of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, noted that the actual use of nuclear weapons could have serious consequences and make Russia a "global outcast".
US President Joseph Biden accused Russia of violating the nuclear nonproliferation regime due to "nuclear threats against European countries." This is how he perceived Vladimir Putin's words that Moscow is ready to use any means to protect its people and territory.
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, accused the head of the White House of distorting Putin's words. The Russian president did not state what the American president tried to attribute to him: "This is absolutely a propaganda link that is being imposed on the public."
In a speech at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia has a nuclear safety doctrine, which "absolutely clearly indicates the case of use." Lavrov also refuted the words of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky about Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons of mass destruction during a special operation. The minister clarified that at this stage Moscow is considering the possibility of using only conventional weapons.
THE REASONING OF A WESTERN EXPERTProfessor James Cameron, in an article in the Washington Post, assessed how great is the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
According to him, Putin made two clear warnings in his speech. The first is addressed to NATO. According to Putin, the leadership of the alliance is discussing the use of weapons of mass destruction against Russia. He recalled that Russia has "more modern than the NATO countries" means of destruction. "The hint is clear. Moscow can respond to a nuclear strike, which NATO does not threaten it with, by launching its own nuclear strike," Cameron writes.
The second warning is more general: "Putin has promised that Russia will use all the means at its disposal to protect its territorial integrity, the Russian people and the "independence and freedom" of the country. To whom the second warning was addressed is less clear. Probably, the audience is not limited to NATO members."
According to Cameron, there is nothing new in the first warning. The Russian Military Doctrine (2014) and the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence (2020) state that Moscow "reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies." Putin's address does not contradict his previous statements designed to deter NATO from intervening in the event of war.
"Now some analysts claim that with the second warning, Putin expanded Russia's capabilities to use nuclear weapons first. But in the "Fundamentals of State Policy" there is already a provision that the country's nuclear forces exist to protect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state." So it's unclear what Putin's words are changing here," Cameron doubted.
Then he argues: "The context in which Putin's warnings were made is important. In the same speech, Putin approved the holding of "referendums" in the coming days in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia. Western representatives note that this vote is illegal according to the norms of Ukrainian and international law…
Will Putin's warnings about the protection of Russian territorial integrity be extended to these territories? This is an important question. Some Western analysts have previously said that Ukrainian attempts to return the Russian-occupied Crimea will increase the risk of Russian nuclear threats and even the use of nuclear weapons.
It is highly unlikely that Putin will use Russia's vast arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons... Undoubtedly, he is afraid of provoking an apocalyptic nuclear war. But Putin can rely on threats combined with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which have less range and power, to stun Ukraine and its Western supporters. His goal in this case will be to force them to end the conflict on Russian terms out of fear of further escalation.
It is unclear exactly how Russia will use nuclear weapons in such a scenario. Official Russian sources are limited to general political statements. And Russian experts in their materials usually proceed from the fact that Russian troops are able to win in a "local" conflict like the Ukrainian one, so there is no need for nuclear escalation.
But based on their estimates, different assumptions can be made… Russia can carry out an underground or aerial nuclear explosion, for example, at its Arctic test site on Novaya Zemlya. It can deliver a demonstrative blow to an uninhabited area near Ukraine, for example in the Black Sea. And it can attack Ukraine directly, striking at a military facility or even at some Ukrainian city. Putin can use these options in turn, giving Ukraine time to admit its defeat, and the West – to put pressure on Kiev so that it capitulates before further escalation.
Even if such options are included in the Russian plan, the use of nuclear weapons is fraught with huge risks for Putin... It is likely that in this case Russia will find itself in an even more difficult military, political and economic situation.
Putin cannot be sure that Ukraine will yield, or that the West will refuse to support Kiev... Ukraine, the United States and NATO do not give any reason to believe that they are ready to retreat."
Vladimir Ivanov
Columnist of the Independent Military Review
