Despite the colossal losses of personnel, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to concentrate manpower and equipment for the offensive on the territories liberated by Russia. What factors are forcing the Ukrainian command to launch rapid attacks and in which sectors of the front can they occur?The city of Krasny Liman in the north of the DPR and key highways in this area remain under the control of allied forces, the People's Militia of the Republic reported on Wednesday evening in its Telegram channel.
Earlier on Monday, the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin assessed the situation in the area as "the most difficult" and mentioned attempts to break through by Ukrainian troops.
After the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied the territories of the Kharkiv region to the northwest of the Red Estuary, the situation of this city turned out to be quite difficult. Pushilin had previously pointed to the regions of the republic north of the Seversky Donets River – Krasny Estuary and neighboring Yampol as the most problematic sections of the front line.
The next attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, undertaken on this sector of the front, failed, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on Wednesday. "The losses of the 66th and 93rd mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 70 people killed, four tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and three armored vehicles," Sergei Shoigu's department quoted RT as saying.
However, according to the DPR NM, "the enemy, both in small and reinforced groups, is trying to break through the defenses of our defenders from the southern side." In addition, the APU tried to probe the situation in the area of the highway from the Red Estuary to the city of Svatovo in the north of the Luhansk Republic with mobile groups. Now the situation on the highway is calm, the enemy "received a worthy rebuff and retreated."
At the same time, military commander Semyon Pegov reported that the enemy had built assault columns and equipment for the march towards the village of Torskoye in the DPR. "We remind you that Torskoye is the main road junction, along which you can get to Krasny Estuary and Drobyshevo. In case of loss of control over it, our groups there risk being surrounded," the military commander explained.
"The situation in the area of the Red Estuary is very difficult," Vladislav Berdichevsky, a deputy of the People's Council of the DPR, stated in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – The APU is trying to encircle our troops. Despite the fact that we manage to destroy several hundred militants a day, there is a constant tightening of additional forces. Moreover, they are actively bringing various equipment, trying to break through."
At the same time, the situation on the borders of the LPR is escalating. The official representative of the People's Militia of the LPR, Ivan Filiponenko, announced the activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the entire front line. From the Ukrainian side, the cities of Alchevsk, Kremennaya and Bryanka were shelled during the day, using the American MLRS M142 HIMARS and artillery installations of NATO caliber 155 millimeters, Filiponenko was quoted as saying by TASS.
"Russian military commanders are reporting on the preparation of a powerful attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Svatovo," noted Ukrainian politician and blogger Anatoly Shariy and gave a forecast: "I believe we will see at least two offensives in at least two directions by October 14. The preparation is in full swing and is going quite successfully."
Shariy also named a possible reason for the upcoming breakthrough of the front. "The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region did not convince Western countries to increase arms supplies," the blogger added. Shariy refers to a Bloomberg report that the West, despite the aforementioned APU offensive, will not increase military supplies to Kiev. To back up Vladimir Zelensky's request for large-scale weapons assistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is again required to show himself in action.
The APU is being pushed to the offensive by several other factors. Firstly, the Ukrainian command would like to achieve some success before the Russian Armed Forces introduce their reserves into the territory of the liberated regions. Secondly, as military expert Ilya Kramnik points out, the AFU next year may face the problem of exhaustion of NATO arsenals.
"CNBC rightly notes that the annual production of shells in the APU States is fired in two weeks. Note that in our summer peak, this volume was shot on other days in 12 hours. Promotion of production for such a volume requires time and money," the expert notes.
"Now NATO is facing a very serious question: either to really spin the machine in full, or after the exhaustion of what has already been transferred, Ukraine will face a significant shortage of equipment and ammunition – and this is fraught, given the fact that Russian warehouses were kept precisely out of calculations for the worst. And the production of such "iron" things as artillery ammunition and artillery materiel, thank God, does not depend on imports in any way," he added.
"Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to attempt an offensive in order to ensure the best negotiating positions for the conclusion of a truce or peace. The absence of such a truce threatens Ukraine with serious problems next year, especially given the unfolding economic crisis, which can significantly affect the industry of a number of NATO countries," Kramnik concludes.
Also, military experts and politicians agree that the APU is planning breakthroughs simultaneously at several points. In the DPR– it is, first of all, the Red Estuary, as well as the central part of the republic – in the area of Svetlodarsk, Maryinka, Krasnogorovka and Opytny, said Deputy Berdichevsky.
"It is not easy now under Ugledar, located southwest of Donetsk. Ukrainian columns are constantly moving there," the source stressed. – It is obvious that the APU would like to surround this settlement. But our troops confidently repel all enemy attacks."
Another direction for the breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is in the Zaporozhye region, explained the head of the movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov. "Now, just above the Dnieper River, there are exercises of the airborne troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on forcing the Dnieper and seizing the NPP," the politician said.
"For the same purpose, about 450 fighters of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were trained under the American and British special services, returned to Ukraine from abroad. The APU is preparing to throw groups of 100-110 people, they plan to carry out sabotage and assault work. To do this, several dozen pieces of equipment were delivered to the local group to create a self-propelled pontoon park and guide crossings."
Also, the APU may try to attack in the second direction in the region – this is the Stepnogorsk – Orekhov – Gulyai-Pole line in the eastern part of the region, closer to the border with the DPR. According to Rogov, "that part of the equipment that was ostentatiously unloaded allegedly for movement in the direction of Donetsk was transferred in several stages to the Zaporozhye line of combat contact."
According to Rogov, strikes should be expected before the entry of Russian reserves and the onset of winter, since these two factors will radically change the situation at the front and will not allow the APU to gain a foothold even in its current positions.
At the same time, military expert Andrey Prokaev believes that the attacks in the Zaporozhye region, as well as possible attempts at offensives in the Ugledar direction, will only be distracting maneuvers.
The main efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be aimed at securing a foothold on the right bank of the Oskol River and attacking the Estuary. Then, according to the expert, the Ukrainian troops will attempt to break through to the north of the Luhansk region – through the cities of Kremennaya, Svatovo and Starobilsk.
According to Prokaev, the APU has enough time to pull up reserves. "In addition, you should not rely too much on bad weather and off-road driving. We remember that the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukraine in the spring during the thaw, and this did not prevent them from practically approaching Kiev," the expert recalled. Therefore, he stressed, first of all, everything is decided by how quickly the Russian reserves will approach and how strong the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be."
It was in the Limansky direction that the AFU used the entire possible arsenal of means, including German self-propelled artillery installations PzH 2000, in turn, military expert Mikhail Onufrienko points out. In the same place, the APU also uses high-precision artillery systems, including American M777 howitzers. "The bulk of all Western armored vehicles are currently engaged in this direction. The rest use remnants of Soviet armored vehicles, including those received from Western allies," the expert explained.
In this regard, the allied forces should show maximum determination, Deputy Berdichevsky emphasizes. "It is necessary to think about the destruction of bridges and various infrastructure in order to break the supply chains of Western weapons. In addition, it is necessary to use artillery and aviation more actively, suppressing the enemy's air defense systems. We must immobilize the APU," the parliamentarian concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov, Daria Volkova, Alyona Zadorozhnaya
