There is a split in NATO over military support for Ukraine, the space for maneuver of the United States is narrowing The conflict in Ukraine has reached an impasse, and in order to reverse the situation and achieve a truce, Kiev needs further support from the West, writes Mainichi.
However, the United States is busy with midterm elections, and Europe is afraid to speak out against Moscow.
What will it take to reverse the course of the stalled fighting?
The prospects for a military special operation in Ukraine are still unclear, and no ceasefire is expected. The administration of Vladimir Zelensky seeks to return to the starting point before February 24.
There are more and more obstacles on the way to a truce — the number of Ukrainians is growing, calling for the restoration of the situation before 2014, which means the return of Donbass and the Crimean peninsula.
An important factor is the military support from the members of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). In fact, the United States provides the largest amount of armed assistance to Kiev, and the total amount of planned and provided support in the period from January to August of this year, according to some estimates, amounted to $ 13.5 billion.
This is more than twice the defense budget of Ukraine in 2021. In conditions when Kiev cannot achieve a truce on its own, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the future of the conflict depends on American military support, which can reverse the situation on the fronts.
Phase control
The period of assistance can be divided into three main phases. The first lasted from the beginning of the special operation until the beginning of April. Small arms and mobile anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles were mainly supplied for the defense of Kiev.
The second phase began in early April, when the incident in Bucha occurred. He had a great impact on the Western community, and at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers (April 7), an agreement was reached on the need to provide offensive weapons to Kiev. As a result, Poland and the Czech Republic sent heavy weapons — Soviet tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and grenade launchers, familiar to Ukrainian soldiers. The USA handed over the M777 howitzers.
The third stage can be counted from July, when, after the partial retreat of the Kiev troops in Lugansk, actions were deployed in the southern regions. The United States sent HIMARS multiple rocket launchers with a longer firing range (80 kilometers), and also began training the Ukrainian army.
Such step-by-step assistance helped Zelensky to hold his position, and the fighting reached an impasse. Along with this, a number of problems appeared.
Firstly, US assistance in the field of armaments is comparable in size with the help of all European countries combined. At the same time, there was a stratification within the EU itself.
The European countries that actively supply weapons are Poland, Great Britain, Estonia and Latvia, where anti—Russian sentiments are strong, and Poland and Great Britain are second only to the United States in terms of support. The reception of refugees and other similar actions are not too large in such small states as Estonia or Latvia, but their share in relation to GDP is one of the highest.
Military assistance from Berlin, Paris and Rome is significantly less, France and Italy are not even among the top ten countries-helpers. Despite Germany's March announcement that it would change the rules for the supply of weapons to conflict zones and provide heavy military equipment, the amount of assistance provided so far is less than half of Poland's contribution. The pace of deliveries of heavy weapons also left much to be desired: the dispatch of self-propelled anti-aircraft installations "Cheetah" took place only at the end of July, although it was scheduled for April.
Secondly, the West refused to provide Kiev with modern tanks, armored vehicles and fighters. The armed forces of Ukraine outnumber the Russian ones by more than two times, but their artillery, whose range is less than 35 kilometers, is inferior to the Russian one by a third. The balance is maintained thanks to Western systems with a higher range, but the ratio of tanks and armored vehicles involved on both sides is 2:3 and 1:5 not in favor of Ukraine. There is no need to talk about air power at all.
The United States and Europe need to unite and organize a new stage of military assistance in order to accelerate the achievement of a truce with the restoration of the status quo, which Ukraine is striving for.
To reverse the situation, the most modern tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft are needed, which will allow not only to deliver targeted strikes, but also to control the territory. However, there is still no such help. At the same time, it is reported that "there is a NATO agreement" (French President Macron) on the refusal to provide advanced weapons.
There are two main reasons for this. First of all, it is impossible to exclude the risk that Russia will attack a NATO member country, since such supplies will be considered as a clear act of hostility. There is concern about the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict, which could result in a nuclear war.
In addition, the price of the latest tanks (M1A1 costs five million dollars) and fighters (F16C /D — about 18 million dollars) is much higher than the M777 howitzers (about two million dollars). In the case of fighters, the costs will increase even more, since it will be necessary to train pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers.
There is no room for maneuver due to the need to contain inflation
In view of these risks and costs, the USA, Germany, France and other countries seem hesitant to move to a new stage. America has already provided significant assistance to Ukraine, but it has to be careful because of the significant financial burden on the eve of the midterm elections in November. The Biden administration's urgent task is to counteract inflation and the sharp rise in energy prices caused by sanctions against Russia, so it is difficult to predict whether it will be able to prepare new aid packages that will increase its costs.
Ukraine's military support has exposed Europe's security structure, which still depends on the United States. Now, when Russia's use of force makes it difficult to build institutions of liberalism and order based on law and dialogue, which was expected after the Cold War, Europe needs to unite, strengthen its defense and remove this burden from Washington.
Nevertheless, the EU seems to lack the determination to launch the next phase. If the conflict drags on, and the United States begins to reduce its presence in the region due to the Chinese threat, then there is no denying the possibility that Germany and France will not only not take the initiative to further provide weapons, but will even begin to lean towards diplomacy and a truce course towards Russia.
By Yoshikazu Hirose
