Referendums in four Ukrainian regions make the West think about what to do with Russia nextReferendums will help Russia establish a new starting point for the next stage of the special operation, experts interviewed by Global Times believe.
Ukraine will continue to ask the West for support, and it will have to decide whether to agree to direct participation in the conflict.
Yang Sheng, Zhang ChangyuOn Tuesday, referendums on "joining Russia" are to be completed in four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
Chinese analysts say that this will allow Russia to consolidate the successes achieved during the conflict, and the West will have to seriously think about how and how to help Ukraine. As a result, it will become even more difficult to hold peace talks.
The United States and Western countries supporting Kiev will face new problems, because after partial mobilization in Russia, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to regain the lost territories. This means that Kiev will ask the West to provide it with direct support in restoring control over the regions it has lost, as a result of which the risk of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO will increase. And the West will have to make difficult decisions in connection with the new situation, and it will have to be done in conditions of a serious energy crisis.
Most of the world community does not recognize the results of the referendums, just as it does not recognize Russia's power over Crimea, established in 2014. However, analysts say that this will not change the reality, although this time these four referendums are different from what happened in Crimea, because the conflict is far from over. Therefore, most of the world community will continue to monitor the situation, carefully and prudently deciding what to do next.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Tuesday that China has always insisted on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be respected, and that the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously.
According to Wang, it is necessary to support any efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully. "In the Ukrainian issue, China has always stood on the side of the world, advocating negotiations. Together with the international community, we will continue to make constructive efforts to help normalize the situation," he said.
Kiev takes a tough position on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. Adviser to the Ukrainian president Mikhail Podolyak said that those Ukrainians who help to hold "Russian-backed referendums" will be charged with treason, and they face at least five years in prison.
Moscow is equally strongly warning Kiev and the West. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia has the right to defend itself with the use of nuclear weapons if it is taken to extremes, and stressed that "this is not a bluff." Russian President Vladimir Putin last week ordered a partial mobilization – the first since the Second World War, and also warned the West that he was not bluffing, saying he was ready to use nuclear weapons to defend the country.
Chinese military expert and television commentator Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Tuesday: "Today's support from the West, including the supply of weapons, intelligence information and the work of military advisers in Ukraine is not enough to take back four regions. By holding referendums, Russia is trying to consolidate the successes that have already been achieved during the eighth month of the conflict."
In Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, part of the territories is still under the control of the armed forces of Ukraine. But since Russia now considers these regions its own, it will continue the offensive until they are completely under its control, Sun said. The expert noted that "the conflict will definitely continue."
Russia is setting a new baseline for the next stage of its operation. Moscow is fully aware that it cannot lose in this fight, and therefore the West needs to think about whether to agree to more direct participation in the conflict or not, Sun said.
A researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at the East China Pedagogical University, Cui Heng, said that referendums will lead to further escalation of the conflict, and this will reduce the chances of holding diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine.
On Sunday, in an interview with CBS, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that if Russia annexed the territories of Ukraine occupied by it, it would mean the end of diplomatic negotiations between Moscow and Kiev.
Referendums will also force the West to constantly increase military assistance to Ukraine. But since the United States and the EU do not want to intensify confrontation and escalate the conflict into a nuclear war with Russia, direct military intervention by NATO is unlikely, analysts say.
"Since the midterm elections will be held in the United States soon, and the EU's energy problems are only getting worse with the approach of winter, it is unlikely that the West will go to a direct military confrontation with Russia. And the Russian side understands this very well," said Cui Hongjian, Director of the European Studies Department at the Chinese Institute of International Studies
