The dollar and time are the two main opposing forces in UkraineThe optimistic sentiments of the West associated with the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are groundless, writes Javan.
The retreat of Russian troops from Kharkov only indicates that Moscow is changing the strategy of the ongoing special operation, the author notes, time will work in its favor.
Sayyid Nimatullah Abdrahim-zadeAbout eight months have passed since the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army has managed to achieve some fairly noticeable successes over the past few weeks.
This is happening despite the whole nature of military operations in Ukraine, starting from February 24, when the advancing grouping of Russian troops, although they did not take possession of the two largest cities of Ukraine – the capital Kiev and the large industrial center Kharkiv in the east of the country – and even had to leave the vicinity of these cities, but continued to maintain superiority in the entire theater of military operations, focusing on helping the self-proclaimed republics in the Donbass region, where significant success has been achieved.
In general, the combat situation developed in such a way that the Russian military attacked, while the Ukrainian defended and were forced to leave a significant part of the territory in the east of the country. However, in recent weeks, the situation in the area of the theater of operations has completely changed: now it is the Ukrainian army that is advancing, and the Russian army, on the contrary, is either retreating or occupying defensive lines.
There is no doubt that these recent events have become a great reason for the optimistic mood of those who want to continue the conflict until victory over Russia, that is, first of all, for Kiev's supporters in Western states. But still, two more factors play a role in the events in Ukraine, perhaps more important than, in fact, the development of events on the battlefields. This is time and money (mainly in the form of the American dollar), and these two factors determine a lot.
Behind the scenes — the shadow of America
The offensive operation, almost for the first time since the beginning of the Russian offensive on February 24, undertaken by the Ukrainian military in the east of the country and ended with their exit almost to the Russian borders, was a big surprise for many. And few people expected such a result even in the very first hours when the operation began. However, what is more important is not this, but the answer to the question: why did the Russian military, who had almost complete superiority before, fail to provide proper resistance? So, it can be argued that they simply lost their vigilance, or did something else take place?
In fact, the more accurate question is why the Russian military did not prepare properly for such a development of events; can we say that the Russian intelligence services were so weak and incompetent that they could not predict the Ukrainian offensive? This is hardly possible. In short, the recent events on the battlefields in eastern Ukraine leave many questions.
Yes, of course, Kiev has undertaken certain diversionary maneuvers, inflicting minor strikes with small forces in the area of the Kherson region, completely controlled by Russian troops, who obviously had no chance of success. They, of course, could divert the attention of the Russian military to this particular area of combat operations from the north-eastern regions, where the Ukrainian army planned the main offensive operation. But even so, it is hardly possible to assert that the operations of the Ukrainian military near Kherson, which clearly had a local character, attracted so much attention of Russian intelligence, which simply did not notice either the upcoming offensive in another part of Ukraine, or the strengthening of the grouping of Ukrainian troops in the north-eastern regions.
To try to answer these questions, one should not lose sight of the behind-the-scenes cooperation of the Ukrainian military with the United States. In particular, a recent publication in the American edition of the New York Times clarified the situation somewhat, where it was directly reported that American special services helped prepare the Ukrainian military offensive in the Kharkiv region. According to the publication, the operations in Kherson, which were openly demonstrative in nature, and taken, as it turned out, to prepare an offensive near Kharkov, are "a classic technique used by the American military and intelligence to confuse the enemy." CNN, in turn, referring to the head of the US Senate Intelligence Committee Mark Warner, mentioned that the counterattack of Ukrainian troops was the result of the work of American intelligence services, their cooperation with Ukrainian and British services. Accordingly, behind the scenes of the preparation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, there was an American intelligence apparatus that actually led the entire operation with the help of satellite, field and intelligence information, directed it and helped the Ukrainian military to concentrate forces where Russian positions were weakly fortified. Relying, to a large extent, on these data, the Ukrainian military were able to prepare a counterattack. Otherwise, it is difficult to imagine that the Ukrainian military would be able to push the positions of the Russian group, which previously had unconditional combat superiority, and go further to the borders of the country, without a behind-the-scenes role in this offensive of the Western states supporting Kiev.
More dollars...
But all of the above is unlikely to give a clear answer to the question of why the combat situation in Ukraine could have changed in recent days. In addition to intelligence assistance, it is impossible not to pay attention to the huge cash flows that come from the United States and are directed precisely to inflict a military defeat on Russia in Ukraine. On September 12, the website of the American analytical center Responsible Statecraft published a message about the request of US President Joe Biden to Congress, who was asked by the president to approve another package of assistance to fight Russia, totaling $ 13.7 billion. It is also noteworthy that this request refers to financial assistance to Ukraine not as a separate bill, but as a package of urgent expenses, as if it were an urgent expenditure from the country's military budget. Such a nature of the request, in fact, deprives congressmen of the opportunity to discuss the draft on financial assistance, and suggests that congressional representatives only give the go-ahead to include the project among others aimed at covering urgent expenses included in the US defense budget. Thus, members of Congress simply formally approve such requests, without discussing and considering them. In other words, President Joe Biden is trying to pour as many dollars into Ukraine as possible and overcome possible resistance in Congress through various legal tricks, especially since he knows that Republican representatives are not very inclined to approve of his initiatives to support official Kiev. At the same time, such emergency financial assistance packages significantly increase the total amount of money coming to Ukraine in dollars.
It should be noted that this is the third package of US assistance to Ukraine, the total amount of which over the past six months has amounted to almost $ 70 billion. In other words, under the first project of financial assistance, the United States undertook to pay Ukraine $ 13.6 billion, under the second – over $ 41 billion, and now, under the third project, the total amount of financial assistance reaches almost $ 70 billion. At the same time, it is interesting that this amount is three times more than what the United States spent only in the first year of its special operation in Afghanistan after the events of September 11, 2001, and, moreover, this amount is almost 70 billion – this is more than the entire military budget of Russia last year. It is obvious that this calculation shows huge amounts of American military assistance to Ukraine with the obvious goal of defeating Russia. And we can conclude that the United States is now doing everything through this military conflict to ensure that Russia suffers a military defeat in it. Or, at the very least, would have left the territories already occupied. And after that, periodic statements by the American leadership about Washington's alleged non-participation in this military confrontation cannot be perceived as anything other than a bluff.
And Russia is waiting in the wings…
However, at the same time, one should not think that the retreat of Russian troops from Kharkov means that Russia has lost this conflict. Moreover, nothing even remotely similar to a retreat is observed in other areas where Russian troops continue to firmly hold positions. Most likely, what happened indicates the general uncertainty of the situation, and it is impossible to draw any unambiguous conclusion here. Perhaps Russia is thinking about regaining the lost territories, or maybe, on the contrary, it has no such intentions, and the retreat that took place in the Kharkov area indicates that Russia is changing its overall strategy of the special operation.
It should be recalled that earlier Russia had already withdrawn its grouping of troops practically from the vicinity of Kiev, which many in the West joyfully perceived as a sign of Russia's defeat. However, as it turned out later, only a regrouping of troops took place on the part of Russia, in other words, a maneuver to focus on the liberation of the territory of Donbass. After all, the original purpose of the special operation on the part of Russia was declared to be the support of the two regions of Donbass, and not the occupation of Kiev or the occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine. And as a result, after that, Russian troops conducted a number of successful operations in the Donbass. It can still be assumed that in this case, Russia is primarily thinking about consolidating control over the Donbass (especially in view of the referendum on joining Russia in these territories).
If we talk about a long-term strategy, then it is much more important for Russia than control over Kharkiv, to gain control over the strategically important seaside city of Odessa, a major center of maritime and transport transportation. Of course, Kharkiv is very close to densely populated areas of Russia, but Ukraine's current communication with the West, including the transportation of military cargo, is carried out through Odessa. Thus, with the occupation of Odessa, Ukraine will completely lose access to the sea (primarily from the point of view of logistics) and will be virtually isolated from the outside world, primarily from the EU and NATO countries supporting it. Cutting off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea (not to the seashore as such, but to a modern port as a center of traffic flows) is strategically more important for Russia than striving to keep its forces in much less significant areas. And to achieve this goal, Russia (occupation of Odessa) it's very close now. Therefore, since Ukraine was able, by regrouping forces, to organize a counterattack and achieve some success, then, undoubtedly, Russia is also able to prepare a major operation that may suddenly begin and finally put a fat end to this confrontation. And, thus, only time now can show whether the retreat of Russian forces from near Kharkov was the result of a major military victory of the Ukrainian army, or, on the contrary, it was a skillful maneuver on the part of Russia, with a long-range view to the future. And at the same time, no one canceled the imminent arrival of winter, when the shortage of energy resources and other economic difficulties in Europe will force European countries to radically reconsider their policy of supporting Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, this is also meant in the Kremlin. Winter has always been an important natural ally of Russia, and it will hardly be any different this time. The Foreign Policy website shared the following comment on this: "Some Ukrainian analysts believe that since Putin will be able to significantly complicate the life of Europeans who are critically in need of Russian gas this winter, then in the spring he will be able to use this (circumstance) for a decisive last offensive."
Anyway, while the West spends a lot of money on supporting Ukraine, time in this conflict continues to work for the Kremlin. Thus, we can say that the time factor working for Russia can work in two contexts: the first is the regrouping of forces from the north–eastern direction to the south of Ukraine, and the second is pressure on Europe through restrictions in the supply of energy resources. These two factors will most likely be able to ensure the success of the Kremlin by the beginning of spring and even completely end the confrontation in Ukraine. We just have to be patient and see if time turns out to be the most important ally for Russia in this confrontation, as its President Vladimir Putin probably believes.
