How to decipher Putin's warnings about nuclear weapons?During his address on September 21, Vladimir Putin, in particular, repeatedly warned NATO about the consequences of intervention in the Ukrainian conflict.
The author of an article in the Washington Post tried to "decipher" the warnings of the Russian leader and assess the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons.
James CameronHow big is the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Here's what you need to know about it.On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his speech on partial mobilization in Russia, issued warnings about nuclear weapons and approved the holding of illegal "referendums" in the Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia.
Here's what you need to know about the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons.
1. What did Putin say about nuclear weapons?Putin made two clear warnings in his speech.
The first is addressed to NATO. Putin has stated without evidence that the NATO leadership is discussing the use of "weapons of mass destruction" against Russia. He recalled that Russia has "more modern than the NATO countries" means of destruction. The hint is clear. Moscow can respond to the North Atlantic Alliance's nuclear strike, which NATO does not threaten it with, by launching its own nuclear strike.
The second warning is more general. Putin promised that Russia would use "all the means at our disposal" to protect its territorial integrity, the Russian people and the "independence and freedom" of the country. To whom the second warning was addressed is less clear. Probably, the audience is not limited to NATO members.
2. Is there anything new in Russia's nuclear policy in this case?There is nothing new in the first warning.
The Russian military doctrine of 2014 and the "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of Nuclear Deterrence" of 2020 state that Moscow "reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and (or) its allies." Putin's address does not contradict his previous statements designed to deter NATO from intervening in the event of war.
Now some analysts claim that with the second warning, Putin expanded Russia's capabilities to use nuclear weapons first. However, there is already a provision in the "Fundamentals of State Policy" that the country's nuclear forces exist to protect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state." So it's unclear what Putin's words are changing here.
But the context in which Putin's warnings were made is important. In the same speech, Putin approved the holding of "referendums" in the coming days in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia. Western representatives note that this vote is illegal according to the norms of Ukrainian and international law, and predict that during the rigged vote, the overwhelming majority of its participants will vote for joining Russia, paving the way for the annexation of these territories by Moscow. Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014 after holding an illegal referendum, stating that 97% of its participants voted in favor of joining.
Will Putin's warnings about the protection of Russian territorial integrity be extended to the annexed territories? This is an important question. Some Western analysts have previously said that Ukrainian attempts to return the Russian-occupied Crimea will increase the risk of Russian nuclear threats and even the use of nuclear weapons.
3. What practical options does Putin have for dealing with nuclear weapons?It is highly unlikely that Putin will use Russia's vast arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons capable of striking the United States.
Undoubtedly, he is afraid of provoking an apocalyptic nuclear war. But Putin can rely on threats combined with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which have less range and power, to stun Ukraine and its Western supporters. His goal in this case will be to force them to end the conflict on Russian terms out of fear of further escalation.
It is unclear exactly how Russia will use nuclear weapons in such a scenario. Official Russian sources are limited to general political statements. And Russian experts in their materials usually proceed from the fact that Russian troops are able to win in a "local" conflict like the Ukrainian one, so there is no need for nuclear escalation.
But based on their assessments, it is possible to make different assumptions about the ways of using such nuclear weapons. Russia can carry out an underground or aerial nuclear explosion, for example, at its Arctic test site on Novaya Zemlya. It can deliver a demonstrative blow to an uninhabited area near Ukraine, for example, in the Black Sea. And it can attack Ukraine directly, striking at a military facility or even at some Ukrainian city. Putin can use these options in turn, giving Ukraine time to admit its defeat, and the West — to put pressure on Kiev so that it capitulates before further escalation.
4. How will the world react?Even if such options are included in the Russian plan, the use of nuclear weapons is fraught with huge risks for Putin and his regime.
It is likely that in this case Russia will find itself in an even more difficult military, political and economic situation.
Putin cannot be sure that Ukraine will yield, or that the West will refuse to support Kiev. Then he will have two options: further escalation or recognition of the failure of his desperate adventure. Ukraine, the United States and NATO give no reason to believe that they are ready to retreat.
Putin will also break the 77-year-old taboo on the use of nuclear weapons. This will horrify the whole world, cause a wave of condemnation and economic isolation, which will be much more serious than anything Russia is facing today.
And there is also the option of a retaliatory military strike against Russia. Before Putin's speech, President Biden warned that if Moscow uses nuclear weapons, "it will change the nature of the war as never since World War II." He also warned Putin about the US response, noting: "The nature of the response will be determined by what the Russians will do."
It is not very clear what the nature of the military response will be. Independent analysts offer a whole series of convincing non-nuclear responses, starting with cyber attacks and ending with conventional strikes against Russian troops designed to punish those units and units that committed the attack, as well as assisting Ukrainian troops in expelling Russia from the territory of Ukraine.
5. Who in Russia makes decisions on the use of nuclear weapons?Of course, Putin hardly has unlimited powers to use nuclear weapons.
The Russian state has three nuclear suitcases held by Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Analysts say that in order to give an order to use Russia's strategic nuclear forces, permission from two owners of nuclear suitcases is needed.
But it is unclear whether this restrictive rule applies to operational and tactical nuclear weapons, which are of the greatest concern today. Analysts say that although formally the Russian armed forces do not have the right of veto, they to a certain extent control the use of such weapons, participating in planning and in strikes. But it is very risky to believe that Russian officers will refuse to carry out the order.
