Mobilization of 300 thousand people: Putin took up the case "with two hands"! How to get out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?Recently, Russia decided to take serious steps in the framework of a special operation in Ukraine.
The decree on mobilization and Putin's speech were a signal to the West that the country will not play by the imposed rules and will not prolong the conflict, China News reports.
In Russia, for the first time since the Second World War, a decree on mobilization was issued. On September 21, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made a televised address to citizens, announcing the mobilization of 300 thousand people. During the appeal, it was stressed that the goals of the special military operation in Ukraine have not changed, and a strong warning was given to the West.
What does such a serious step by Moscow mean? Is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on for almost seven months, waiting for another escalation?
Putin sent powerful signals with his speech
The head of the Russian Federation made a rather loud statement in which the following signals can be traced:
First, Russia will go all the way until it reaches the goals of a special military operation in Ukraine.
Secondly, the West was warned that the country would use all means to protect itself.
Thirdly, referendums on joining Russia will be held in four regions of Ukraine.
Putin said that Russia will stop those who seek world domination, threatens to dismember and enslave the country, and also that the West has crossed all borders and has begun to resort to threats of using weapons of mass destruction against the Russian Federation.
The President harshly warned that in case of a threat to the territorial integrity of the country, all available means of protection will be used.
According to Ye Tianyue, a junior researcher at the Institute of Eurasian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, the announcement of mobilization is mainly due to the recent counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, in particular in the Kharkiv region, which exerted strategic pressure on the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
Moscow also realized that without mobilization and referendums, it may be difficult to maintain an advantage on the battlefield.
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute for Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, notes that the West tried to drag Russia into a protracted war of attrition, but Putin certainly did not follow this logic. By mobilizing and attracting human and military resources, Moscow hopes to correct the situation and break the deadlock, and this implies an increase in confrontation with Western countries.
What does the decree on mobilization mean?
Sergei Shoigu, who spoke after Vladimir Putin, gave a number of explanations about mobilization.
The mobilization will be partial and will not affect students and those on active duty. Those who have previously served in the armed forces and have some military experience will be called up.
Shoigu said that the mobilization resource of Russia is almost 25 million people, 300 thousand reservists will be called up as part of the current partial mobilization. Citizens will be trained, retrained and only after that they will start performing tasks.
On September 20, the State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted an amendment to the Criminal Code: for the first time, concepts such as "mobilization", "martial law" and "wartime" were introduced into legislation. According to Zhang Hong, mobilization is now not voluntary, but mandatory and semi-mandatory, people called up in this way will receive payments from the state in the amount of 200 thousand rubles, as well as military personnel under contract.
This suggests that the number of military personnel involved in the Ukrainian conflict will double," Zhang Hong said. Previously, the Russian side numbered 250-300 thousand military personnel, and the number of units located directly on the territory of Ukraine was about 150 thousand people. It is reported that the vast majority of citizens who have come under mobilization will fight Ukrainian aggression. Shoigu also made it clear that mobilization is necessary to control the contact line, the length of which reaches a thousand kilometers.
According to Zhang Hong, Russia is preparing "with two hands", that is, for two scenarios. Firstly, it is necessary to deploy 300 thousand people at least until February 2023. Secondly, referendums on joining the Russian Federation will be held in four regions of Eastern Ukraine. In this case, the process of these territories becoming part of Russia can be completed as early as November.
The situation is gaining momentum: Russia is using the "second hand"
Ye Tianyue believes that the conflict will continue, the Ukrainian army has a certain counter-offensive potential. The West has already begun discussing the supply of long-range and precision weapons to Kiev. Such advanced weapons will have a significant impact on the combat situation. Putin's support for holding referendums and the announcement of mobilization means that the conflict will drag on.
In particular, after the referendums, the basis for negotiations between the two sides will change. If Ukraine takes up arms in these regions again, Russia will regard it as a direct attack on its territories and will defend them. Kiev had previously asked Moscow to withdraw troops from the eastern part of Ukraine. However, after the referendums, the borders of the state will expand.
The goal of the Ukrainian army is to oust all Russian troops from their territories and at least take full control of four regions. According to Ye Tianyue, such a "tug of war" between the two sides, for example, small local fights with increasing intensity, will continue at least until the winter of 2022.
The escalation of hostilities means that more troops and weapons will be involved, and Russian defense enterprises can increase production. Economic, social and political bodies will direct resources to support military operations. In fact, these are big changes for Russia.
Zhang Hong also believes that in the future the confrontation between Russia, Ukraine and the West will be more intense. Mobilization is a preparation for escalation and prolongation of the conflict.
The expert noted that Moscow had previously played the game "with one hand". Vladimir Putin recently announced that he would end a special military operation in Ukraine as soon as possible. If the referendums are held, the regions under the control of the Russian Federation will be incorporated into the state and the stage of the "special military operation" can be completed.
Will the conflict move to the next stage? It depends on the actions of Ukraine and NATO after the referendums. If Ukraine continues to advance and the West intervenes, Russia will also use the "second hand" to fight, and this can no longer be called a "special military operation", the situation will escalate into a "Russian-Ukrainian war".
Zhang Hong stressed that the West is unlikely to stop. If the situation does not escalate after the referendums, it will be tantamount to a victory for Russia. The reason why Moscow announced the mobilization is that it knows that this will not be the end of the matter.
However, even if the next stage of the conflict is more intense, NATO will not enter it directly. For example, if the Ukrainian army attacks four referendum areas and the West intervenes, Russia could launch a full-scale counterattack. This will be the beginning of the Third World War. No one wants to bring the conflict to a nuclear standoff, so NATO will continue to support Ukraine by providing it with military assistance, intelligence data and other means.
What is the way out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
As Zhang Hong noted, the Ukrainian crisis seems to have reached a dead end – the intensity, risks and uncertainty are increasing. Prolonging the conflict can change the world order, shift the emphasis of international relations from economic factors to security and ideology.
It should be noted that negotiations and diplomatic means are still the most realistic and rational choice for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Zhang Hong stressed. From the very beginning, China has maintained a neutral position, actively advocated the promotion of peace and negotiations, and hoped that the planet would hear the voice of peace and reason.
The expert believes that the approach advocated by China is the best and most rational, history will prove it. Respect and tolerance between countries is the basis for solving problems and contradictions, otherwise dialogue and cooperation will be very difficult to implement.
On September 21, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Wang Wenbin, at a regular press conference, noted that on the issue of Ukraine, China has always insisted that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the goals and principles of the UN Charter should be respected, legitimate security considerations of states should be taken into account and efforts to promote a peaceful settlement of the crisis should be supported.
