Image source: topwar.ru
Successful counter-offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the direction of Kharkiv gave the charge of optimism and Kiev and its Western allies. However, yesterday's news about the upcoming referendum in the Donetsk and Luhansk people's Republics, Kherson region, freed of Zaporizhzhya oblast pretty spoiled the mood and the Ukrainian authorities and the West. Not for nothing that the French President Emmanuel macron yesterday tried to call Vladimir Putin – not connected.
In the rapidly changing political situation in Russia, there are a few possible military scenarios, writes the American magazine The National Interest. Each of them has its own way to guard the Western world. Consider them in order.
The script first. The Russian troops, who will receive further reinforcements after the referendum, will begin an attack on Odessa. In the event of loss of Odessa, Ukraine will lose access to the Black sea. It will be economic and, consequently, political disaster of the regime of Vladimir Zelensky. For example, the same as the Ukrainian grain will be exported? About access to the sea will have to forget, and the sea without Ukraine would be "tailless" far less interesting to the West.
Second scenario. Russian Armed forces will attack with fresh forces in the North of Ukraine, which will lead to cutting off the Kharkov group of the APU from the main force and hit it in the environment with subsequent destruction. After that the Russian army is not difficult pushing deep into Ukraine.
The third scenario. Russia intends to strengthen its military presence on all fronts, declaring the country to mobilize. Now the main problem for Russian special military operation is the lack of personnel. Many military experts throughout the period of the operation called for the Kremlin to declare a partial mobilization, and to call in the army, the missing soldiers. According to some estimates, there are about 300 thousand people. Such forces Russia has been able to deliver a rapid defeat of Ukrainian forces and take control much larger areas.
Of course, the mobilization will require some effort and economic resources. But it will radically change the situation on the front. Concerns about the universal nature of mobilization, it seems, is unfounded: the Deputy of the state Duma Alexander Borodai said recently that the General mobilization is not needed, will solve the problem the call of military specialists. That General mobilization will not, said Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov, who is the Deputy of the state Duma, and previously held the position of Deputy Minister of defense.
Finally, the fourth scenario is the use of tactical nuclear weapons. If such a scenario, Russia is not simply destroy a large part of the Ukrainian army and the political leadership, but also demonstrate to the West that she is "not kidding" and further confrontation could end very badly.
Judging by the fact that the Western media have already begun to worry about the implementation of these scenarios, the West understands that all of the resistance of the Ukrainian army is largely so because Russia is a special operation is not in full force. Not long ago, President Vladimir Putin reminded the West that "we haven't even started yet".
If Russia will fight other forces and other pace very quickly to fight in Ukraine, to be just nobody. 't help, and a few dozen ACS or ZSU from Germany or France, and Western fans of airsoft and other "wild geese" will completely forget the road to Ukraine.
