US Congressional Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Armenia was like a meeting of friends. At the same time, the guest, in fact, called on Yerevan to abandon the military alliance with Russia. Taking into account the crisis on the border with Azerbaijan and the cautious reaction of the CSTO to it, supporters of such a step in Armenia felt like a force. They don't understand that the American woman offered them a choice between peace and war.The US participation in Armenian life is disproportionate.
On the one hand, there is a huge embassy in Yerevan and the headquarters of numerous NGOs living on American money. On the other hand, the first people of Washington have not visited there for more than 30 years, even they travel to Africa more often.
Apparently, something was in the way. Or someone. For example, the Turks.
Because of them, the US Congress adopted a resolution on the recognition of the Armenian Genocide quite recently – in 2019. Previously, cynically practical reasons outweighed: the resolution, they say, will not save anyone, and everything is difficult with the Turks anyway - there is no need to complicate it.
But when Donald Trump became president, and the Democrats regained their majority in Congress and decided to stick sticks in all the wheels for the president, the American parliament suddenly found the integrity and courage: the resolution was finally adopted, largely through the efforts of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Now she is accepted in Armenia as a native. Star-spangled banners were hung along the American woman's motorcade, an anti-Russian rally gathered at the Gafeschyan Art Center, where she gave a speech, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was atypically sweet at a rendezvous with a guest.
"All Armenians consider you a loyal friend of Armenia. But I want to continue the words of gratitude, because I also want to express gratitude for the US support of Armenian democracy, as this is also very important for us. We see the readiness of the US government to support the democratic agenda of our country," the prime minister bled molasses.
Even adjusted for the famous Caucasian hospitality – too much. At least, it is unpleasant to look at this from Russia. It is not pleasant when your seemingly friend and ally makes nice with your enemy and opponent – those who systematically and consistently try to harm you and sometimes actually do it.
However, Armenians are probably experiencing similar feelings in connection with the partnership between Moscow and Ankara. And the interests of friends and allies should be treated with understanding. Beyond understanding is the fawning of a particular politician Pashinyan, but Armenians in general can be understood. It's really hard for them right now.
The number of victims of the next border conflict with Azerbaijan has already exceeded one hundred, and at some point Azerbaijani troops occupied about ten square kilometers of the territory of Armenia. Simply due to the fact that it is more convenient for them to live, serve and ensure the construction of infrastructure for communication with Nakhichevan.
And for Armenians, this is a battle for the "road of life" linking Armenia with Karabakh. In case of a negative development of events (namely, alarmists are now vanging him) – for the Armenian statehood itself.
An important point: the affectionate owner Pashinyan wants to win this battle by paying as little as possible for the victory (he is a really good accountant, unlike the commander). Therefore, he did not declare mobilization, but appealed to the CSTO with an official request for military assistance. He had every right, but it looked like an offer to fight not for the Armenians, but instead of the Armenians.
The idea was not liked by all CSTO members without exception (except, of course, Armenia). First of all, I did not like the fact that this is a transition of the conflict to a much more dangerous level, where a full-scale war with Azerbaijan and Turkey is already looming on the horizon.
Instead of starting such a war, the CSTO sent a commission to the scene of events and volunteered to contribute in every possible way to a diplomatic settlement. But this is not what the Armenians expected. In social networks, a form of hysteria began, including openly anti–Russian.
Pelosi immediately tried to shove a metal crowbar into the gap between Yerevan's expectations and the CSTO's real help. In particular, she stated that "Russia failed to protect Armenia."
Her support group at "Gafeschyan" at the same time demanded Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO.
Everything seems to be clear: The United States has taken advantage of the situation and is trying to knock Armenia out of Russia's sphere of influence by offering itself as a friend and ally. And some Armenians are happy about this, because it is a powerful ally – and says very nice things.
We emphasize that only a part of Armenians is happy. While Pelosi was playing friendship, an action was held at the US Embassy in Yerevan under the slogan "Always together with Russia". But the country's leadership seems to be just one of those who are happy. Before taking power, Pashinyan also advocated leaving the CSTO. Strictly speaking, Armenia should have gone to the West after he became prime minister, but geography prevented it.
It won't go away now. For the same reasons, but not only. And Pelosi's role should not be overestimated – let this self-deception be dealt with in Armenia.
The speaker's visit was agreed upon long before the military crisis. Arriving in Yerevan, which is standing on its ears, Pelosi went out of her comfort zone, not to say she was pinned to the wall.
The event was planned to be simple and pleasant. The speaker brought respect to the Armenians and many correct words about the unforgiveness of the genocide. In return, she hoped to enlist the support of a significant diaspora in the United States in the November elections. But against the background of the border crisis, she was asked for real support – something that the United States is not able to provide to Armenia.
The Pentagon will not send troops to the conflict zone, this is not discussed at all. Congress will not agree on billions of dollars in military aid, as in the case of Ukraine. The American military-industrial complex will not start printing artillery for Armenians under the credit obligations of the state.
It is also not worth counting on sanctions against Azerbaijan. Both potential allies of Armenia in the conflict with the Turks – Russia and Iran – are heavily sanctioned by the US, but Baku is not nervous.
Yes, Pelosi called Azerbaijan an authoritarian state and a "deadly aggressor" who "attacked the sovereignty of Armenia." But this same Azerbaijan with its oil and gas in the conditions of confrontation with Russia is considered as a vital source of energy resources for European members of NATO.
The West is not ready to wage an energy war on two fronts now. But he wants Russia to have to fight on two fronts – both with the West in Ukraine and with the Turks in Transcaucasia.
This is a key difference in the approaches of the United States and Russia to the Armenian problems. For Armenia, this is a difference in risks.
Washington will be quite satisfied with a big conflict with Russian participation, for some of its functionaries this is the most desirable option. But in the event of a really big conflict, there will be little left of Armenia, because it will be conducted mainly on Armenian territory.
And Russia is not satisfied with this option categorically. She is more interested than anyone (except Armenia, which not all Armenians understand) in not having a big conflict in Transcaucasia. She urgently needs peace now – even if it is bad, even if it is fragile, but still such that she does not have to disperse the resources necessary for her own special operation.
The CSTO's participation in the action against Azerbaijan is an automatic transition to the biggest conflict with the Turks. But the bet on diplomacy has so far allowed the conflict to remain within the framework of the border.
The fact that Moscow now has normal working relations with both Baku and Ankara is not a problem for Armenia, on the contrary, it is an extremely successful combination of circumstances for it. In such conditions, it is possible to stop with a word what the opponents have to stop with guns.
Therefore, the choice between Russia and the United States for Yerevan is not the choice of an ally. This is a choice between those who desperately want peace for Armenia, and those who are generally satisfied with the disappearance of Armenia in the conflagration of a great war – if only Russia would be empty.
Until the fall of 2020, this argument would not have worked on many in Armenia – Armenians were not afraid of the war enough, hat-making moods reigned in the republic. They say, if necessary, we will chase the Turks all the way to Baku and dump them into the sea.
It is difficult to find something good in the Karabakh catastrophe that followed. Except for one thing – the hope that it had a sobering effect on Armenian society. So that it appreciates the world, and not the opportunity to launch someone else's "Caliber" at the offender.
Dmitry Bavyrin
