For the first time, the Chinese C919 aircraft will be transferred to the airline for commercial operation two years earlier than its Russian competitor, the MS–21 airliner. Both projects developed in parallel and made their first flights even in the same month and year. However, the Chinese is the first to be released into life. However, this is where the advantages of the Chinese liner end. How is the MS-21 superior to its rival?China will receive certification for its first narrow-body passenger aircraft C919 at the end of the month.
And by the end of this year, at least one such aircraft will be put into commercial operation by the local airline China Eastern Airlines, local media report. According to the plan, the carrier was supposed to receive three such airliners, but the very fact of transferring even one aircraft into commercial operation is already a landmark.
This aircraft is designed to compete primarily with Airbus and Boeing aircraft in the most popular and popular class of passenger airliners. It is curious that this Chinese airliner is also a competitor of the Russian MS-21 in class.
Moreover, for both Russia and China, the creation of such an aircraft is the first experience. But it is worth mentioning that for Russia this is the first experience after Soviet times, and for China it is the first in the history of the country at all.
Both projects were actually running in parallel. So, the Chinese C919 made its first flight on May 5, 2017, and the Russian MS-21 – on May 28, 2017. The Western world watched with interest what the two countries that decided to challenge the monopoly in world aviation, Boeing and Airbus, would offer the world.
And now the Chinese aircraft promises to begin its first commercial operation in 2022. Whereas the first MS-21 airlines will receive only two years later – in 2024.
"However, it cannot be called a loss," the head of Avia believes.<url>" Roman Gusarov. The delay in the launch of the MS-21 is primarily due to the sanctions restrictions of the West – at first it was necessary to replace composite materials with domestic ones, and now completely transfer them to domestic components.
"In two years, the MS-21 will become completely independent of Western components. No one will block it either on our market or when entering the markets of third countries. The Chinese aircraft is packed with completely foreign components. Secondly, the MS-21 is the most advanced technology, it is technological perfection, the aircraft of the XXI century. The Chinese plane is a repetition of what is already flying. China is not yet able to create a new",
– says Roman Gusarov.
He recalls that the MS-21 has a composite "black" wing, which facilitates the design, improves aerodynamics and fuel characteristics. This is a serious advantage. Whereas China does not have such technology, it has an ordinary aluminum aircraft.
Another important advantage of the MS-21 over the C919 is the presence of Russia's own aircraft engine. "An aircraft engine is the most complex device invented by man. Even space engines are simpler. Russia has the technology to create an aircraft engine, but China does not," the head of <url> notes.
It is no coincidence that China decided to create a wide-body CR929 (higher class) aircraft not alone, but together with Russia. Because the Chinese aviation industry is seriously lagging behind. "It will take Beijing 20-30 years to create such an aircraft on its own, because they do not have the technology to design and manufacture aircraft of this class. Only Boeing, Airbus and Russia have them," Gusarov notes.
Despite the fact that the MS-21 and C919 are aircraft of the same class, and both projects developed in parallel with each other, they are not competitors to each other, the expert believes. "China is making this aircraft primarily for its own huge market. They did not plan to buy our plane. And we counted primarily on our own market and other markets. If there are different markets, then they are not competitors. Perhaps they will clash in some markets in the future, but first the Chinese aircraft needs to get used to its own market," Gusarov believes. And whether it will enter the export markets is a big question. Because American and European aircraft companies are unlikely to allow the Chinese to take away capital-intensive sales markets from them. Especially when Boeing and Airbus are already forced to reduce production due to the pandemic and the fall in air transportation, as well as due to withdrawal from the Russian market.
"If China ever crosses the path of Boeing or politics intervenes, then China will be blocked from accessing Western aircraft parts. And then the C919 plane will simply disappear.
Russia is at a higher technological level, so it is ready to quickly replace foreign components, and China will be able to do this only in 15-20 years. The fact that the MS-21 will be completely independent from the West is a huge advantage," says Gusarov.
In fact, the United States put a spoke in the wheels much earlier – back in 2019, they disrupted the deal to sell the SSJ-100 to Iran. The Americans have banned us from selling planes to the Iranians, because 10% of the aircraft consists of American components. That is, even if Russia and the United States were "friends", this would not mean that the Americans would allow the MS-21 to take a bite out of their world pie. "The United States will always find an excuse not to let other people's high-tech products into the American market and the markets of the American presence. China will run into the same thing sooner or later," the expert believes.
And the MS-21 will have a real chance to hit the dominance of two monsters in world aviation – Boeing and Airbus. Although it will not be possible to do it quickly.
The prospects of MS-21 entering export markets are very distant. In the first years after the start of serial production in 2024, Russia is unlikely to look for export markets. Because the primary task of MS-21 is to meet the needs of its own Russian market. According to the plan of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, from 2024 to 2030, only 270 MS-21s will be produced in Russia, while 210 cars will go to the fleet of one Aeroflot, and there are other Russian airlines that want to replace foreign liners with domestic ones. The Russian market needs 700 MS-21 aircraft, but by 2030 it will be possible to replace only half of the fleet.
By the end of 2030, according to the plan, Russia will produce only 72 MS-21 per year. "So much in the best years (before the pandemic) was produced by the same Airbus per month, and 1200 aircraft per year for two with Boeing. We will produce 70 per year, so we will occupy only 5-6% of the world market. We will take orders from them for about $ 7 billion," the expert concludes.
Olga Samofalova
