Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan urgently, at night, turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help. The thing is that new clashes have started on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, there are dozens of dead. What exactly happened according to the versions of both sides and why is what is happening critically important for Yerevan?Armenia and Azerbaijan were able to agree on a ceasefire from 9.00 Moscow time (8.00 local time).
The shootings continued for another fifteen minutes, but then the situation on the southeastern section of the border between the two countries stabilized.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin last night and asked for help. Also, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan called Sergei Shoigu in Moscow at night. At the same time, his Azerbaijani counterpart called Ankara. Armenia also appealed to the CSTO, the UN Security Council, and Pashinyan managed to wake up French President Emmanuel Macron overnight.
At 10.00 Moscow time, Nikol Pashinyan spoke in parliament and said that 49 Armenian servicemen were killed during the night of clashes on the border. This figure is not final, as the wounded continue to be taken to Kapan and Goris, and some are being sent to Yerevan. The losses of the Azerbaijani side are not reported by any sources.
According to the Armenian side, at about midnight Baku began shelling Armenia's border areas in Zangezur, including civilian infrastructure. Heavy artillery and drones were involved. The village of Sotk was first shelled, and then the cities of Goris and the resort of Jermuk, which are quite large by local standards, were shelled. Smaller settlements, as well as the locations and locations of the Armenian armed forces, were also shelled.
Baku, in turn, claims that a "large-scale provocation of the Armenian side" took place, and Azerbaijani troops returned fire. Another question is that by about one o'clock in the morning, the firefights with the use of heavy artillery had reached a very dangerous scale.
Most likely, we are dealing with a classic case of a self-escalating clash. After the Azerbaijani troops occupied Lachin and the dominant heights along the Lachin corridor a little over a month ago, the Armenian side really tried several times to somehow ensure the security of its flanks on this section of the border. This was done by setting up minefields.
One of these Armenian DRGs, engaged in mining, passed into Azerbaijani territory and, apparently, found itself. And what started with a close-range shooting battle turned into shelling of large border towns from howitzers in just an hour.
In addition, the Azerbaijani side, taking advantage of the physical advantage in numbers and weapons, "changed its position" several times, that is, in other words, it attacked or imitated an offensive. Both sides "called the older brothers," and by morning the shooting had subsided by magic.
In early August, Azerbaijani troops occupied Lachin and the surrounding area, arguing that Baku had fulfilled its part of the agreements on the Lachin corridor. The meaning of the contract was as follows. Azerbaijan insists that Lachin is its historical territory, therefore, following the results of the war, it must unconditionally return to Azerbaijan. From his point of view, this is an important and integral part of the "restoration of territorial integrity". And for the sake of this, after all, the war was waged.
But since this is the "road of life" for Karabakh, it must be compensated somehow. Therefore, Moscow agreed to build a new road bypassing the city of Lachin from Armenia to Karabakh, the passage of which will be regulated by Russian peacekeepers.
This is not a compromise, but rather a more pro-Armenian decision, since Baku could not have done it at all by right of the winner. The point here is that Armenians will not enter Azerbaijani Lachin (for Baku, this is not a military issue, but rather a matter of national pride and ambitions), and the new road will have some kind of informal international status. For Azerbaijan, there is even a propaganda benefit in this: well, are they some kind of animals – not to allow peaceful Armenians to travel according to their needs. Let them go, but not through "our Lachin" and under the protection of the Russians. And then you never know what.
And by the end of the summer, Azerbaijan had built ahead of schedule its section of a new road (about 30 kilometers), which runs parallel to the old corridor just to the south. The Armenian side now has to build another nine kilometers already on its own territory to connect the Azerbaijani section with the existing road in the Goris basin. Yerevan has not done this yet.
As an argument, the Armenian side points out that it is not enough just to lay asphalt. All communication lines pass through the Lachin corridor to Karabakh: electricity via a power line, a gas pipeline to Stepanakert and even an Internet cable.
In Yerevan, they say that the Azerbaijanis should shift the entire infrastructure along the new road, otherwise Karabakh will simply be cut off from almost everything. And therefore, from the Armenian point of view, the very fact that Baku laid the highway in record time does not mean that the Moscow agreements on the Lachin corridor have been fulfilled. Consequently, Azerbaijani troops had no right to occupy Lachin in early August.
These details were not spelled out verbatim in the text of the Moscow declarations and agreements. And all these local features that are not put on paper, not for the first time lead to another round of escalation. It is enough to recall the story of the gold mine, whose nationality has not been clarified even after an attempt to demarcate the border with the help of Russian specialists. And this demarcation itself is being sabotaged by both sides, since each has its own vision of the border. Even the cards are different.
And while all these details (like many others) are not clarified on paper and with the help of Russia as an obvious mediator and arbitrator, events like this night will be repeated regularly. And this is annoying and distracting for everyone. For example, each of the parties is trying to stake out certain sections of the state border for themselves. Who by mining, and who by "changing the position", that is, in fact, by the advance of infantry supported by artillery. Russian peacekeepers do not participate in this in any way and cannot, since the state border between the two countries is not included in their area of responsibility.
The way out of this dangerous and unpleasant situation may be the convening of a new diplomatic conference in Moscow,
where both sides of the conflict should come with a full list of their claims on hand, up to the re-laying of Internet cables and digging wells. Let these negotiations last not one day, but a month or even two, but for now this is the only way to at least slightly reduce tensions.
At the same time, in any case, there will be a danger that, for example, Baku, taking advantage of the military advantage, will try to improve its starting positions before the conference, and Yerevan, using much smaller resources, will try to keep what it has left. So the prospect of de-escalation is rather vague, although local skirmishes can be stopped for a while.
Evgeny Krutikov
