The Ukrainian battle of attrition is sapping Zelensky's strength, and Putin is capable of another conflict against the WestKiev took a big risk by launching a "counteroffensive".
If it fails, Ukraine may be left without the strength for maneuver and active defense, writes the author of the article for Sky News. At the same time, it is impossible to treat Russia's military potential with disdain.
Alexey MuravievBack at the end of July, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called the next three to six weeks crucial for Ukraine and its military actions against Russia.
This bold statement was made at a time when the Ukrainian military was preparing for a major counteroffensive against Russian troops in the south of the country.
This week, the conflict has passed another terrible mark – 200 days since the beginning of hostilities. It is becoming increasingly obvious that we are indeed approaching a critical point — at least in the 2022 campaign.
Ukrainian counteroffensive: successes and failures
Five weeks after Zelensky issued his warning, the promised and widely publicized counteroffensive has finally begun.
The military-political leadership of Ukraine deserves great praise.
While Russian troops continued their slow but steady advance on several sections of the front line, Zelensky patiently built up strategic reserves.
Ukrainian units were trained by NATO instructors and received operational recommendations from American and British strategists. Finally, Western military aid is coming faster and faster.
However, since it is impossible to simultaneously strengthen advanced combat units and rearm reserves due to lack of forces, priority was given to the second task.
Judging by information from open sources and my own estimates, Ukraine has managed to form a significant reserve army of eight to ten infantry and armored brigades, most of which are now equipped with equipment that has been transferred to the United States and NATO.
A significant part of the reserves was involved in the counteroffensive in the Kherson, Zaporozhye and Kharkiv regions.
In the Kherson region, the Ukrainian military managed to secretly assemble a formidable group with heavy artillery and aviation.
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However, after a week of continuous attacks along the 200-kilometer front line, the Ukrainian forces managed to achieve very modest tactical successes.
The Ukrainian military failed to get close to major cities like Kherson and Melitopol, not to mention liberating them.
Ukraine also failed to split the Russian task force of about 30 thousand people operating in the region.
Finally, Ukrainian troops paid a high price for the counteroffensive on Kherson.
Even if we do not take into account the Russian propaganda about the losses of seven to eight thousand killed and wounded, the situation remains grim.
In an interview with The Washington Post, wounded Ukrainian participants in the offensive complained about poor equipment and insufficient support compared to Russian forces.
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Last week, Ukrainians launched another major counteroffensive on the strategically important cities of Balakleya and Izyum in the Kharkiv region.
The task was to cut off the main supply routes of the Russian troops advancing in the Donbass, surround them and liberate the captured parts of the Kharkiv region up to the border with Russia.
According to initial estimates, the Ukrainian strike group has approximately five brigades (over 10,000 people supported by tanks, artillery and aviation).
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The Ukrainian dilemma and Putin's teachings
The current counteroffensive is the only chance for Ukraine to reverse the course of the conflict before the onset of rains and winter, after which the theater of military operations will become unsuitable for any significant maneuvers.
Kiev took a big risk.
He threw into battle a significant part of the combat-ready reserves, which were formed and armed under enormous pressure.
If the counteroffensive's goals are fulfilled, Ukraine will have a chance to seize the strategic initiative from the Russians.
In this case, the efforts invested and the losses incurred will not be wasted.
But if the offensive fails, Ukraine risks being left without forces for maneuver and active defense.
In addition, it will be necessary to urgently replenish the depleted arsenals of Western weapons and equipment. To do this, it is necessary to establish serial production of spare parts, and this is great news for the military-industrial complex. But for the Ukrainian military, who are increasingly dependent on military assistance from the West, it is the opposite.
As for Vladimir Putin, he is... he just watches and waits for his bet on exhaustion to have a strategic effect.
The purpose of the Vostok—2022 strategic exercises held last week in the Far East is to demonstrate that Moscow has enough personnel to solve unforeseen tasks and conduct operations in several theaters of military operations at once.
There is a temptation to see this as just a propaganda trick of the Kremlin, but the mood among the NATO military leadership is far from the most joyful.
In an interview with Reuters, the Inspector General of the German armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, warned against neglecting Russia's military potential.
"The main part of the Russian ground forces is currently bogged down in Ukraine, but even in this case, we should not underestimate their potential to open a second theater of operations," he said.
"The main part of the Russian fleet in the conflict with Ukraine has not yet been involved, and the Russian Air Force also has significant potential and also poses a threat to NATO," he continued.
Hardly a high-ranking German general can be suspected of sympathizing with Russia.
And as long as NATO has concerns that Russia will be able to raise the stakes even higher, and as long as Europeans are outraged by the rapid rise in energy prices and the high cost of living and are afraid of being left without heat in the coming winter, Putin will rub his hands and smile.
Dr. Alexey Muravyev is an Associate Professor in the field of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University in Perth, Western Australia
