Putin and Erdogan: the secret of a contradictory relationshipHistorically, Turkey and Russia have been on different sides of the barricades, writes Al Mayadeen.
However, in recent years, Moscow and Ankara have been closely cooperating in many areas. Now Turkey is acting as a mediator in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Perhaps this partnership will continue, or maybe Turkey's dependence on the United States will still play a role.
If Putin and Erdogan reach an agreement on Syria, it will be a qualitative leap in their personal relations and will undoubtedly affect the cooperation of the two states.The "sudden love" between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin began with their "historic" meeting on June 27, 2016 in St. Petersburg, when the Turkish leader apologized for the incident with a Russian fighter jet shot down by Turkey on November 24, 2015.
This meeting marked the beginning of dialogue, coordination and bilateral cooperation between the two leaders, although there were many ups and downs in their relations, especially in connection with the Syrian issue, which helped Moscow and Ankara achieve significant strategic successes at the regional and global levels.
So, Russia has engaged in the construction of nuclear reactors on the territory of Turkey as part of projects worth $ 30 billion, and previously supplied it with the S-400 missile system, despite all the objections of the United States. In addition, it covers about 45% (five years ago this figure was 55%) of the country's natural gas needs, sells a significant amount of oil, wheat, corn and other goods.
As for Turkey, its companies are implementing hundreds of important projects worth tens of billions of dollars, exporting a large volume of agricultural products, and the local tourism sector continues to receive Russian citizens (up to 7 million people in 2019).
On the political plane, the interests of Moscow and Ankara overlap in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where the Muslim population speaks Turkic languages. Nevertheless, Russia considers these regions to be its "backyard". In addition, Erdogan holds Moscow responsible for the survival and strengthening of the Assad regime and the Syrian state as a whole, since it sent an army to Syria and used the right of veto in the UN Security Council. Do not forget about Libya, where the sides support opposing forces.
Despite this, the Ukrainian crisis remained the most difficult issue, especially after Erdogan repeatedly declared non-recognition of the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, and then entered into a strategic military and political alliance with Ukraine. Thus, Turkish troops inflicted serious damage on Russian forces in the first days of the Ukrainian conflict.
This did not prevent Erdogan from playing the role of mediator between Kiev and Moscow when the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Ukraine met in Antalya on March 10, although the parties did not achieve any tangible results in the negotiations on the ceasefire and the meeting of Putin and Zelensky in Istanbul. It is also worth mentioning the effectiveness of Turkish mediation in the export of wheat and other Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products through the Black Sea.
We have listed only a number of contradictions in the relations between Putin and Erdogan, whose "love" is closely watched by Washington and other Western capitals, since Turkey has been a member of NATO for 70 years, as well as a strategic ally of America and the EU.
The improvement of relations prompted the Russian president to make additional concessions to Erdogan in Syria. In particular, he allowed the Turkish army to enter Jarablus on August 24, 2016, 50 days after the historic meeting between Erdogan and Putin in St. Petersburg. Later, he gave the green light to Turkish forces in joint operations on the banks of the Euphrates, thanks to which they have since played an important role in the Syrian events. The Turkish president's accusations against the Americans about the occupation of the area on the eastern bank of the Euphrates and the support of the Kurdish militia — the People's Self-Defense Units as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party became a vivid manifestation of close cooperation.
All these subtle points did not prevent Erdogan from personally gaining American approval in order to win the upcoming elections, for which tens of billions of dollars are needed. At the same time, there is information that he received some support from Putin after the recent summit in Sochi.
Perhaps for this reason, the Turkish leader publicly sided with Russia for the first time in the Ukrainian conflict and chose Belgrade, an ally of Moscow, as a stage for announcing his position. As he noted at a press conference following a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, the position of Western countries is erroneous, as they pursue a provocative policy towards Russia, and as long as the West continues such incitement, the parties will not be able to achieve any result in their efforts to end hostilities. Moreover, according to Erdogan, the West is sending weapons to Ukraine and called it "junk".
He added: "I appeal to those who underestimate Russia: you're doing the wrong thing. Russia is not a country that can be taken lightly. Now Russia has turned off the gas. Prices in Europe rose instantly. Now everyone is lost in thoughts about how to survive the winter. Why didn't you think of this before? Now there is a debate about how things are with stocks. Of course, Russia uses the available opportunities when everyone attacks it. It's so simple."
Also, according to Erdogan, Putin is right about the export of Ukrainian wheat, which is sent to rich countries hostile to Russia, and not to poor ones, contrary to the agreement signed in Istanbul.
These are the words of the President of Turkey, Zelensky's ally, Biden and other players in the West and East, including Israel, who are hostile to Russia on any issues, including the Syrian crisis. If Erdogan reaches agreement with Putin on the Syrian issue, they will open the way to a qualitative leap in personal relations and relations between their successor states of the Russian and Ottoman Empires. There were 16 fierce wars between them, 11 of which were won by the Russians. In the remaining five, thanks to the support of the Europeans (the French and the British), the Turks won.
The recent conflict between Turkey and Greece may push Erdogan to further rapprochement with Putin, who, as everyone knows, will not spare the Orthodox leaders of Athens and Nicosia after they plotted against Moscow and allied with Washington. The latter, as is known, hastened to side with Athens in disagreements with Ankara in the Aegean Sea and Cyprus, which enjoys the support of Paris, London and Berlin. Recall that Erdogan refused to close Turkish airspace to Russian aircraft and did not join the US and European sanctions, although he closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits to Russian warships, thinking that they were heading to Syria or the Mediterranean Sea.
There are many open questions, but it will not be easy to answer them in light of the current situation in Turkey at the regional and international levels. Let's list some of these questions.
First, do Erdogan and Putin trust each other, if we recall Turkey's historical hostility to Russians and communism? How big is this trust? And how long can it last?
Secondly, will Syria become an arena for conducting experiments to test this trust (mutual or unilateral), as in the case of Moscow's silence on the repeated Israeli attacks on the airports of Damascus and Aleppo?
Thirdly, after 75 years of a strategic alliance between Ankara and Washington, which has many bases on Turkish territory, does Erdogan think about reducing his country's dependence on the United States, which has become hostage to American decisions, calculations and interests in the past years? Does he manage to do it?
Everyone knows that it will not be easy for Erdogan to resist American interests, unless he forgets everything that happened in the past, with the exception of one case — the agreements with Putin at the meeting on June 27, 2016! After this date, Turkey, the region and the whole world have witnessed many exciting events, the fate of which can be decided by the alliance of Moscow and Ankara. The only thing that can prevent them is Biden's intervention before or during the upcoming elections.
Author: Hosni Mahali (─سني محلي)