Will the Arctic become a new arena of confrontation between NATO and Russia?Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic has alerted NATO, according to Huanqiu Shibao.
The Alliance is going to strengthen its military-strategic presence in the region. But Moscow does not intend to threaten the sovereignty of the Arctic.
With the deepening confrontation between the West and Russia, especially after the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, the Arctic, which is extremely important in strategic and military terms, has become the center of a geopolitical struggle. During an August visit to Canada, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that "Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic region does not meet the interests of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance," and now the bloc is strengthening its presence in the Arctic. Shortly after that, the United States published the news about the appointment of an "Arctic ambassador". No matter how you look at it, Moscow's investments in the Far North are unnerving NATO countries — they do not want to lag behind in this "muscle game". Why is the "polar front" given such importance? Can the icy, snow-covered world of the Arctic really become a new arena of confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance?
"The Arctic risks turning into a theater of military operations"
"Unlike the NATO Secretary General, any polar bear knows who the real owner of the Arctic is." On August 31, the Russian edition of the Free Press published an article about the decree "On the fundamentals of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period up to 2035", approved by Vladimir Putin in 2020. It provides for equipping the army stationed in the region with modern weapons and equipment and the construction of the necessary infrastructure. The article cited a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry that "the Arctic risks turning into a theater of military operations." The reason may be the policy of other countries – the applications of Finland and Sweden for membership in NATO have aggravated the situation.
Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, expressed his opinion on this matter. Although the NATO Secretary General mentioned the alliance's "desire to strengthen its presence in the Arctic," calling it "the shortest route for Russian missiles and bombers to North America," and touched on the topic of expanding China's activities, it was unclear how much the bloc wants to increase its military presence in the region. Khramchikhin believes that now Russia's power in the Arctic exceeds the power of all NATO countries combined, but it is difficult to say how the situation will develop in the future. Russian expert Alexander Sharkovsky said that extremely low temperatures, ice and snow will create serious obstacles to the development of the territory, and the main players of the bloc in the Arctic — the United States and Canada — do not have a strong icebreaking fleet. He added: "Let's remember how at the joint Trident Juncture exercises in 2018, an American submarine got stuck in the ice."
Russian Izvestia recently quoted the words of military historian Nikita Buranov that the alliance is trying to "snatch" the Northern Sea Route from Russia's hands and get dividends from it. "NATO can create year-round naval bases on the territory of the Arctic regions of Canada and the northern regions of Norway. The alliance will also try to organize an armed icebreaker fleet. Based on this, he will try to strengthen his military presence, and therefore revise existing treaties in his favor. He is eyeing large offshore oil and gas fields in the Arctic."
In fact, in April 2021, the United States and Norway signed an agreement on the construction of military bases, including three air and two naval. At the same time, the United States already has eight bases in the Arctic region. Allied bases are added to them: Denmark (five bases), Norway (five bases), Iceland (one base). Total – 19. If America agrees with Sweden and Finland, which are going to join the bloc, it will get access to nine more.
According to military expert Andrey Klintsevich, NATO is very concerned about Moscow's leadership in the Arctic. "Russia has been building bases that operate there around the clock, year-round. They are just now starting to think about it. Russia has a whole range of weapons adapted for combat operations in extremely low temperatures, while conventional NATO equipment is useless there. In addition, Russia has a very extensive experience in the use of civilian equipment in this region."
Currently, the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy has 41 submarines (eight of them are equipped with ballistic missiles) and 38 surface ships, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which is under repair. It also includes motorized rifle brigades and marine brigades, they are stationed on the border with Norway. The ground forces in the Arctic are equipped with special weapons and equipment – the polar ZRPC "Pantsir-SA" and the T-80BVM tank. Konstantin Sokolov, vice president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems, announced plans to restore at least ten airports - they can be used for fighter jets. The Northern Clover is located in the region, a unique fully automated military base where 150 servicemen can live in complete isolation for a year and a half. In the spring of 2021, three nuclear submarines of the Russian Navy for the first time simultaneously broke through the Arctic ice during exercises. This indicates the striking capabilities of the country in the Arctic.
In March, the New York Times newspaper wrote that as geopolitical contradictions escalate, the struggle for the sovereignty and resources of the region will escalate. "The increase in the number of US military exercises in Alaska is a response to Russia's increased provocations in the Arctic." Discussing the expansion of Western sanctions, some State Duma deputies even suggested "returning sovereignty over Alaska to Russia."
The strategic value of the Northern Sea Route is higher than the economic one
After the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, the BBC Corporation published an article with the loud headline "Will the Arctic regions of North America fall under the influence of Russia?" In it, Canadian officials and security experts warned that the polar region will soon face a threat from Moscow and that Canada is not ready for this. According to the analysis, there are different scenarios: from small-scale clashes and raids on military facilities to attacks on submarines in the Arctic Ocean. In the event of an open conflict, Russia can take advantage of its missile advantage, and Canada's missile defense network is ineffective and requires modernization.
The Arctic Council consists of eight countries whose territories are located beyond the Arctic Circle. Of these, the United States and Russia have the greatest influence, followed by Canada, Denmark and Norway, and Finland, Sweden and Iceland close the list. The first five states are often called the "Arctic Five". After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the West imposed tough sanctions against Moscow, which also affected cooperation in the region. On March 3 of this year, seven out of eight countries suspended their activities in the Arctic Council and its subsidiary bodies, and in June announced the resumption of work on projects – but without Russia's participation.
Dong Limin, an expert on polar issues at the School of International Relations and Public Administration of the Chinese Oceanological University, told the correspondent of "Huanqiu Shibao" that in May of this year, Chinese scientists held an online conference with scientists from the Danish Institute of International Studies and discussed the future of the Arctic Council in the framework of the Ukrainian crisis. Danish scientists protested the "closure" of the council. Although many Nordic countries attach great importance to coordination with NATO on strategic and security issues, they do not intend to abandon contacts and cooperation with Russia, especially in "low-political" areas.
"Some scientists are concerned that by the summer of 2040 the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice," an article by the Russian news site E—news drew attention to the increasing influence of the Northern Sea Route on the world economy associated with global warming. The Arctic region is rich in oil and gas, and climate change is beginning to attract attention to its water and fish resources. The Northern Sea Route includes the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage and the Central Passage. According to Alexey Leonkov, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, disagreements between the United States and Russia over the Northeast Passage will worsen. The future struggle between Washington and Moscow for the right to develop and use the Northern Sea Route is another topic that can widen the gap between NATO and Russia. Both sides are trying to strengthen control over the Northern Sea Route, interpreting the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in their favor.
Sergey Karaganov, an expert at the HSE, admitted that along with the battle for polar resources that has already begun, military tensions may also increase. This is due to global warming and the desire to use the potential of the Arctic Ocean for their own purposes, which further complicates the situation.
It is worth noting that last year's closure of the Suez Canal led to heated debates on the prospects of the Northern Sea Route. Mr. Dong argues that the strategic value of the NSR exceeds the economic one. Although it can be used as an alternative to the traditional route in emergency conditions, it will not completely replace the Suez Canal. There are several reasons for this, for example, a limited number of ports. If construction does not become cheaper, the commercial industry will make a choice in favor of traditional sea routes. In addition, despite the fact that the Northern Sea Route reduces trade costs, too few companies can afford to take advantage of this advantage – and the NSR cannot fully unleash its potential.
The management of the North Pole depends on the "stakeholders"
The escalation of the Ukrainian conflict has made the anti-Russian course almost "politically correct" in Western countries. This will inevitably affect international Arctic cooperation in the short term, as demonstrated by the suspended work of the Arctic Council. However, Dong Limin notes that all issues of regional governance, including environmental protection, climate change, and cooperation in the field of maritime safety, do not require Russia's direct participation, as they are usually handled by the scientific community. Moreover, Moscow has repeatedly expressed its readiness to resume cooperation in the Arctic Council, and the Nordic countries are ready to maintain contacts with Russia in this area.
No matter how confusing the situation, Moscow will defend its key interests in the Arctic. The Arctic region reportedly covers 18% of the territory of the Russian Federation, more than two million people live there. The region is rich in natural resources: there are 13% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of undeveloped gas reserves, as well as deposits of uranium, gold, diamonds, rare earth elements, and fish resources. More than 80% of combustible gas and 17% of oil (including gas condensate) Russia is also located there.
At the conference "Arctic: Sustainable Development" Vladimir Putin said that the Arctic is not a place for the implementation of geopolitical conspiracies. He stressed that in the conditions of Western sanctions, Moscow should pay special attention to projects and plans in this region.
Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yuri Trutnev said that Russia has implemented more than 460 projects in the Arctic, providing jobs for 30 thousand people. Conducting such activities creates demand for high-tech and high-tech products of the state and stimulates its production.
In response to the remarks of the NATO Secretary General, the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov replied as follows: "The Arctic is a zone of our economic and economic activity, a zone of ensuring our security, in fact, the sphere of our vital interests. Interaction with other countries, especially with China, is aimed solely at the further development of this Arctic zone and cannot pose a threat to any other country or association." Alexey Chudnovsky, a Russian economist, believes that the most important thing now is to protect peace in the Arctic.
Since 2014, Dong Limin has been helping to organize the Russian-Chinese Arctic Forum, which is held jointly by the Chinese Oceanological University and St. Petersburg State University. He said that from an academic point of view, Russian scientists attach great importance to the economic opportunities that climate warming brings. The most important of them are the development of waterways and oil and gas resources. Russia's strategic interests are also in the spotlight, and the main obstacle here is the relative lack of funds. The Russian side invited officials and businessmen from the region to the Arctic Forum in 2017, hoping to establish bilateral cooperation. Scientists of the Far East welcome the investments of Chinese enterprises. Areas of cooperation between scientists of the two countries include scientific research, technology, education, tourism, and fishing.
China can be called an "interested party" in the Arctic. Mr. Dong believes that Northern Europe is ambivalent about China's participation in polar activities. On the one hand, Beijing's investment and market advantages can give an impetus to the economic development of the region, balance the Arctic forces of the United States and Russia and strengthen the voices of the Scandinavian countries. On the other hand, America – and with it Europe – views China as its main strategic competitor. Dong Limin believes that the management of the North Pole through international mechanisms depends on such "stakeholders" as Denmark, because only through them small countries can regulate the situation in the region.
Authors: Li Ming (A), Wang Zhen (A), Gu Di (A)
