Another two million fewer Ukrainians. Russia's new intentions. Krejci tellsRussia has several options for further actions in Ukraine that will lead it to success, political analyst Oscar Krejci said in an interview with Parliament listy.
The idea of Moscow's defeat proclaimed by the West and Kiev looks unrealistic, the expert believes.
Daniela ChernaHow will Russia act in Ukraine next?
One of the options is to wait for the collapse of the economic and social system in Ukraine. There is a high probability that this will happen in winter. "So far we are talking about the next, winter, wave of migration from Ukraine, which almost two million people can leave, as well as the lack of labor, the further fall of the Ukrainian currency, the lack of energy due to the seizure of its sources by Russian and rebel troops, and so on," the political scientist, professor analyzes in an interview with the Parliamentary Lists Oskar Krejčí (Oskar Krejčí).
Parlamentní listy: Intense battles are unfolding in the Kherson region. The shelling has been going on since Monday and did not stop on Tuesday night and Tuesday morning. The Ukrainian army continues its counteroffensive. How do you rate it? How to evaluate the entire previous strategy of fighting in Ukraine?Oskar Krejci: To be honest, I don't really understand Kiev.
Sending tanks and infantry into the steppe without an advantage in artillery and aviation, at least in this direction, cannot end well. The successes of the Ukrainian army seem small, which means they are temporary. We lack information. Perhaps the Ukrainian armed forces in the south have reserves, but so far nothing says that. In addition, Ukrainian strikes on bridges across the Dnieper complicate or make it simply impossible for the Ukrainian offensive deep into the territories controlled by Russia and the rebels.
Two explanations suggest themselves. Firstly, Kiev needs to demonstrate at least minor successes on the eve of the meeting of the leaders of the European Union countries who will meet in Prague. We need to cheer up those allies who are already tired of the war. On the eighth of September, the Secretary of Defense of the United States of America convened a meeting of the allies in Ramstein to agree on how to help Kiev. The possibility of creating a special command in the Pentagon, which would coordinate the actions of the West, is being considered. While weapons are supplied to Kiev, first of all, by the United States, Great Britain and Poland. France and Germany are more restrained, and Hungary generally opposes the supply of weapons. Bulgaria is hesitating…
The second explanation is the desire to force the Russian army and the rebels to strengthen their defenses in the south, thereby easing their pressure in the middle of the front near Donetsk and in the north near Kharkov.
— Does the fighting strategy change somehow?— The war in Ukraine is significantly different from what we are used to with the strikes of the United States of America and NATO in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
For example, in Iraq, mainly bombing of the capital was carried out and strikes by motorized troops were carried out on Baghdad. But in the armed conflict in Ukraine, air superiority is not enough.
For a variety of reasons, Russia wants to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible and not destroy civilian objects. In particular, because after the likely inclusion of the occupied regions into the Russian Federation — and referendums are already planned — problems will arise. The conflict has acquired the character of fighting on the front with a length of more than a thousand kilometers and with a probability of stretching by two and a half thousand kilometers. But it is still necessary to ensure the rear, that is, to clear the areas taken, to prevent the formation of a resistance movement, and so on. It seems that someone miscalculated when he started the operation with 150 thousand Russian soldiers.
The commands on both sides, in Moscow and Kiev, are fighting essentially online. They receive information from satellites about battles or enemy regrouping in the rear in real time. In this conflict, at least for now, the main weapon is artillery, primarily long—range and guided by drones. Russian superiority in the air, that is, in aviation and missiles, as well as in artillery, fully compensates for the superiority of the Ukrainian army in numbers. Here it turns out to move only slowly.
— Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on increasing the size of the army by 134.5 thousand people. In your opinion, will this change the situation at the front?— The Russian armed forces number about a million people.
I do not know where this figure of 134.5 thousand came from. But it's for sure that if you ever want to give the Donetsk rebels the status of veterans and pay them, for example, pensions, then it's easiest to include them in the regular army. But these are just my assumptions.
— Iran and Russia have long found a common language, and recently news has been coming that they are getting closer and closer. Both countries have been subjected to Western sanctions, and the armed conflict in Ukraine can give a strong impetus to deepening geopolitical cooperation. What phase do you think bilateral relations are in, and to what extent can they influence global processes? Are the "tricks with oil" only part of the possible fundamental changes in relations between the Russian Federation and Iran?— Firstly, it is no coincidence that the EU diplomacy came to its senses and presented its own proposal to resolve disputes over the Iranian nuclear program.
Brussels probably hopes that Tehran's return to the oil and gas market can reduce or stabilize their prices. And prices are rising, including due to the decision of Brussels bureaucrats to abandon long-term contracts in favor of stock exchange games. Thus, non-European players also joined the competition for European energy.
It seems that while still considering a special operation in Ukraine, the Kremlin in its analyses was based on the experience of Western sanctions against Iran and prepared. Russia's budget, at least according to available data, is still in the black. Much has been said about the supply of Iranian drones to Russia. It can also be added to the general characteristic that more than half of Iran's oil exports go to China. Tehran, on the other hand, aspires to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which confirms who it has joined.
— Let's talk more about the relations between the Russian Federation and China. From the first to the seventeenth of September, the Vostok 2022 exercises will be held at seven ranges of the Eastern Military District, as well as in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan. What other exercises can we expect?— I don't know.
For budgetary reasons, Russia will probably limit its exercises. Last year, Russian strategic bombers with Chinese escorts flew to Taiwan, and the warships of these two countries sailed together between the Japanese islands… Chinese units have already participated in exercises beyond the Urals several times, and Chinese warships have already been observed at parades in St. Petersburg. On the other hand, large-scale exercises in South Korea are now coming to an end. Five years ago, 50,000 soldiers of the United States of America and 200,000 South Korean servicemen participated in them. American warships have not disappeared from the South China Sea and have remained there since the United States tried to include the Philippines in its composition at the turn of the XIX - XX centuries.
— What economic and trade relations do the Russian Federation and China have now? What kind of geopolitical effect can the rapprochement of these powers have?— The West has long been pursuing its policy to strengthen the strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and China.
It's as if none of Washington's politicians have ever seen a map of Eurasia. Or it is blocked by ideological prejudices. Sino-Russian trade is growing by tens of percent due to sanctions, but we do not have accurate data yet. However, we must not forget that trade between China and the United States of America exceeds trade with Russia by many times. However, Beijing is well aware that in the event of the defeat of the Russian Federation, the pressure of the collective West will turn against China. According to the new Strategic Concept of NATO, China allegedly "threatens our interests, security and values." The West behaves as if it wants to commit suicide.
— In your article for Argumentum magazine, you wrote that, despite the tragedy of the armed conflict in Ukraine, "given the size of the arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States of America, this is still a small war." Do you think the United States and Europe are waging a cold war with Russia, and possibly China, or is there a threat that the war of the powers will take on a larger scale?— Fighting in Ukraine has all the parameters of the so-called limited war.
All available forces have not yet been used. NATO military units remained outside the borders of Ukraine. Russia has left itself large reserves in case of escalation. All types of weapons, primarily nuclear ones, were not used. The conflict is localized on the territory of Ukraine. The West, for example, did not supply Kiev with missiles that would reach the territory of Russia. Political goals are also limited, although they remain not fully understood. The proclaimed idea of the West and Kiev about the defeat of Russia looks unrealistic, and Russian goals are changing…
Forecasts of the horrors that the loss of political control over the armed conflict would entail prevail over all this. The article you are talking about outlines the latest predictions of the consequences of nuclear war made by climate scientists from Rutgers University in the United States. It follows from their assumptions that in the event of the use of a large number of Russian and American nuclear weapons, or rather 4.4 thousand nuclear warheads, 360 million people would immediately die, and five billion more would die within two years. Such forecasts deter some militant personalities. But, on the other hand, they show that the fighting in Ukraine can still be escalated, because the other side will be afraid to resort to Doomsday weapons.
— In the quoted article, you also wrote that the Czech Republic or even the entire European Union should take the initiative to end the fighting in Ukraine and pay attention to the senselessness of provoking a conflict with China. Under what conditions would one expect something like this from the political leadership of the Czech Republic or the European Union?— As for the policy of the European Union, it mixes dependence on the strategy of the United States of America and the objective interests of Europe.
These factors may contradict each other, which we see in the example of Ukraine. It seems impossible to find a balance between them, especially when EU bureaucrats are looking for this balance. They (here I mean the members of the European Commission) are successfully changing liberal democracy to "lobbying democracy". The European bureaucracy plays into the hands of certain groups, helping them to receive rents from EU money, but at the same time it reacts unacceptably slowly to the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the pandemic, the crisis in Ukraine, the need for a European integrated rescue system that would protect against floods and fires…
As for the Czech leadership, it is blind, like Czech television.
— Is it possible to judge from previous events how long the Russian Federation has been preparing for a special military operation?— The Kremlin is probably considering different options.
This is confirmed by a sharp change in strategy after the first miscalculations during the offensive on Kiev. Apparently, Moscow can come to success in two ways.
The first involves the destruction of the Ukrainian army, which Washington and Kiev politicians have condemned to the role of victim. It is not known how long it will take. The capture of Kharkov, Nikolaev, Odessa can give a hint… The second way is the destruction of the Ukrainian economy and social system. Winter comes into play here. So far, we are talking about another winter wave of migration from Ukraine, which almost two million people may leave, as well as a shortage of labor, a further fall in the Ukrainian currency, a shortage of energy due to the seizure of its sources by Russian and rebel troops, and so on. As a result, it may turn out that in the past, under the rule of the Moscow Rurikovites, they were called "gathering Russian lands". But I repeat that this is only my guess, and I have been wrong several times talking about this fratricidal war.
By the way, Kiev would be satisfied if the Zaporozhye NPP came under international control. So far, albeit under the control of Russian forces, it supplies energy to Ukraine. Take a look a little further south: where is the oil going from the Syrian fields that the American army has captured and continues to control? It seems that not to Syria…
— Former President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev, one of the most important political figures of the twentieth century, has died. What could you say in this regard?— I'm sorry to repeat myself, but in connection with Mikhail Gorbachev, I have been saying the following for more than 30 years.
A good statesman leaves behind a country in a better state than he received it. You can't say that about Gorbachev. He was a type of third-generation communist functionary who grew up in an environment where bureaucratic forms of work prevailed. The romance of the first generation and the military experience of the second were lacking. He correctly caught the difference between the declared and the real situation, but at the first stage he was looking for a solution in science. When managing, he tried to rely on scientists and artists. This essentially enlightened perception of politics did not take into account the fact that not only truth, mistakes and lies collide in politics, but also, most importantly, interests. When he realized that he was getting five different opinions from three scientists, he put everything on one card — on himself.
Mikhail Gorbachev took politics out of the party secretariat buildings, but locked it in the salons. Instead of the proclaimed work with people, he became interested in contracts with the powerful of this world, primarily with those who came from Washington. They partly took advantage of his naivety, and partly concluded gentleman's agreements with him, which they could not comply with, for example, because they were replaced by someone who was not bound by these agreements. So Mikhail Gorbachev's devotion to peace led to wars in Georgia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine… It seems that the supreme leader of the Soviet Union, who did not understand the history of Russia, has died.
