The Turkish firm is against supplies to Russia, but politics decides everythingAt the front, drones are like money, there is always not enough of them.
Having joined the troops, the next batch quickly melts from the enemy's fire and electronic warfare (EW), technical problems and resource consumption.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian military, together with the Donbass militia, are crying out about the shortage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Despite the statements of big officials on both sides of the conflict (including Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government Denis Manturov) about urgent measures to increase the production of drones.
During the Army-2022 Forum (August 15-21) a number of domestic manufacturers have announced new deliveries, including to units operating in the zone of special military operation (SVO). Among them are those who, until recently, were not seen in ties with law enforcement agencies. It is reported about the transfer to a three–shift mode of operation of the newly built plant in Dubna, where Orion-type UAVs are produced: the only serial type of domestic MALE-type attack drone (medium high altitude long endurance - "medium altitude, long duration flight").
Against this background, a remarkable event was the repeated (after a couple of years of oblivion) demonstration in Kubinka of the Corsair UAV – a participant in the Victory Parade on Red Square in 2018. This suggests that against the background of an acute shortage of drones in the area of the special operation, it is necessary to resume programs previously closed or suspended.
At the same time, there is a cooling of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to a number of topics that were accelerated a year ago. For example, for the competition for a light training aircraft (LUS) between the Yak-152 of the Irkut company and the UTS-800 of the Ural Civil Aviation Plant (UZGA). As follows from the updated catalog of products, LUZ disappeared from the list of UZGA projects. Recall: the first flight model of the TC-800 debuted at Army-2021, and its chief designer willingly talked to journalists, calling the date of the first flight "no later than December-January".
Among the reasons for the cooling to the topic of training aircraft, one can guess the desire of the military to use all the turboprop engines of small dimension (up to 1000 hp) available in the industry in the interests of unmanned aviation. From both Russia and Ukraine, more and more firms, including small ones, are involved in the work on UAVs: they are easier to lift and more proactive than the giants of the industry. Therefore, it is not surprising that the recent request of the Military department of Ukraine to the local media "not to shine" the names of organizations engaged in the production and supply of equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The request makes no practical sense in relation to the giants – they are already well known along with the location of their industrial sites, and the latter, if we are talking about Ukraine, are regularly subjected to air raids and missile strikes.
At a briefing of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on August 28 about the course of the special operation, it was announced that the Russian Aerospace Forces had struck a second blow at the only manufacturer of aircraft engines in Ukraine. "High–precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the city of Zaporozhye on the territory of the Motor Sich plant hit production workshops where helicopters of the Air Forces of Ukraine were repaired," the ministry said in a statement.
A few days earlier, the production premises of the Iskra plant were shelled, where air defense and counter-battery warfare radars were repaired on the instructions of the AFU. The Russian army also destroyed the factory buildings of the MiGremont aircraft repair company, where Ukrainian equipment was being restored.
Motor Sich is a huge multi-profile enterprise, but its main capacities are involved in the production of aircraft engines of various dimensions. Among other products in the production line there are motors for the promising Akinci UAV ("Akinci", in the Turkish name "Akinci") of the Turkish company "Baykar" (Baykar). The first blow to the Motor-Sich assembly shop was struck by the Russian Aerospace Forces on May 25, a week after the first overseas demonstration of Akinci at an exhibition in the capital of Azerbaijan. The official representative of the Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, then said that the fire damage to Motor Sich was caused due to the fact that the plant produced military products for the Armed Forces, including UAVs and power plants for them. This was a signal to the Turkish "partners": think carefully before sending the AFU the next batch of the Bayraktar TB2 UAV. The VKS is able to level the Motor Sich with the ground, depriving the Baikar of the necessary aircraft engines in the 500-1000 hp power class, which are scarce on the world market.
The Bayraktar TB2 power plant includes a Rotax 910 piston engine or a similar one in the 100-110 hp power class. Such motors are quite widespread, offered by various manufacturers, there are no big problems with their purchase. But the heavier Akinci was designed based on a pair of AI-450MS turboprop engines developed by GP Ivchenko-Progress and assembled by the Motor Sich plant. Both enterprises located in Zaporozhye have recently suffered from Russian missile strikes. It is not easy to find a replacement for them on the world market due to insufficient supply from manufacturers.
So, Russia issued a warning, but it was not heard. In an interview with the British broadcasting corporation BBC, Haluk Bayraktar (CEO of Baykar and son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) said that his company is "completely on the side of Ukraine" and "nothing will overshadow cooperation with Ukraine," regardless of what amount will be offered by the Russian side for the supply of UAVs. The Turkish entrepreneur claims: "Money is not a priority for us. Money and material resources have never been the goal in our business. Our friendship and cooperation with Ukraine have been going on for many years. Therefore, no matter how much money they offer us, to be honest, there can be no question of such a deal."
But we are talking about a private company whose very purpose of existence is to bring profit to shareholders. The depreciation of the lira and the pace of development of the national economy should push Baykar to expand its customer base, especially at the expense of large foreign buyers. Moreover, Russia can help with the implementation of the Akinci program by counter-supplying the latest VK-650 and VK-800 aircraft engines in the right power class.
Last year, Baykar outperformed all other defense and aircraft manufacturing enterprises in Turkey in terms of sales with a result of $ 664 million, with 80% of this amount coming from export transactions. The Bayraktar TB2 drone has been on the market for almost a decade, has managed to fight in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Ukraine. Serial products are in service with Azerbaijan, Qatar, Poland and Ukraine, and a total of 22 countries have sent applications for their purchase.
Preliminary agreements with four countries have been signed at Akinci. This is a promising development that is at the stage of state testing. To date, six copies have been collected by order of the Turkish Armed Forces. The first flight model, which has not yet passed the entire test program, was handed over to the main customer in August 2021.
Baykar is, of course, a private company, but it enjoys huge support from Ankara, including loans and subsidies to expand production capacities (a new plant was built near Istanbul at the expense of the state budget). Therefore, export issues will be resolved at a higher level than the company's management. As President Erdogan said, they were discussed during a personal meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the summit in Tehran.
Putin had an excellent opportunity to discuss the topic with the host party. Although Tehran is still refusing, it will only be happy to satisfy the request of its big northern neighbor about the export of Iranian high-tech products. And the reasoning that it will not get to the Russian army may be correct. The Mohajer-6, Karrar, Shahed-129 and other missile-carrying drones will be very useful to the People's militia of the republics of Donbass, which currently uses mainly light commercial-type reconnaissance UAVs available on the world market.
According to the calculations of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, since the beginning of the special operation, the APU has lost about 2 thousand. BLAH. Piece samples of "Bayraktar TB2" type MALE, Soviet Tu-141 "Strizh" and Tu-143 "Flight" remain in service. NATO countries continue to supply small-sized reconnaissance and attack UAVs, as well as Switchblade-type kamikaze drones. But the lion's share of revenue comes from Chinese-made commercial drones. They are good where electronic warfare is not used.
The Ukrainian military states that the Russian army is a high–tech enemy, it has means of detecting and defeating small-sized air targets, electronic warfare stations, and other advanced equipment. Russian troops easily crack down on commercial drones. So, the use of unprotected communication channels leads to the fact that the Russian military sets the coordinates of the place from where the UAV is controlled, and after a couple of minutes they fire from howitzers or multiple rocket launchers. Electronic warfare is also actively conducted. Technical means allow you to detect an enemy UAV, intercept or disrupt its control, deceive the on-board navigation system by distorting the GPS signal. According to a study by the British agency RUSI, the average life expectancy of a Ukrainian drone on the front line does not exceed a week.
Therefore, the APU is constantly experiencing a shortage of aerial reconnaissance and surveillance equipment. According to estimates of local experts, the total number of drones in the arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the beginning of the year was 6 thousand units, mainly from the commercial market. Chinese civilian products attract low cost. Specially designed devices for the army – for example, the "Fury" produced by the Athlon Avia plant – cost an order of magnitude more expensive: 25 thousand dollars apiece. According to the director of the enterprise, about 70% of the 200 devices of this type purchased by the APU since 2014 have already been shot down.
The "Drone Army" initiative announced in Ukraine to collect donations from the population for the purchase of 200 new UAVs is designed to make up for the losses. Meanwhile, the needs of the APU are estimated at 2 thousand units. The President of Ukraine asks the West for a thousand drones made according to NATO standards. Vladimir Zelensky concretizes: we need UAVs capable of operating steadily in conditions of electronic suppression.
Supplies from Taiwan can improve the situation. We are most likely talking about the Revolver 860 model. This is a small quadcopter designed to search for targets on the front line and attack by dropping grenades. The drone is equipped with a revolver–type installation that allows for the discharge of 6-8 60 mm ammunition, the total payload weight is up to 42 kg. The flight time is from 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the load and weather conditions. The foreign press reports plans to send more than 800 similar UAVs to Ukraine. Deliveries are planned to be carried out through Poland. Taiwan does not hide the fact of selling such products, but not to Ukraine, but to Poland.
Vladimir Karnozov
