"The Kiev regime will begin to crumble within 18 months." Vladislav Shurygin, a military publicist, a permanent member of the Izborsky Club, shared the current results of the SVO and forecasts of what the future course of events in Ukraine will look like with the newspaper VZGLYAD.
VIEW: Vladislav Vladislavovich, how do you assess the military results within the framework of the SVO?Vladislav Shurygin: Our army has gained invaluable experience in large-scale combat operations on an extensive theater of operations with the use of almost all modern weapons systems, with the exception, perhaps, of weapons of mass destruction.
In six months, it was possible to grind a significant part of the personnel, the most experienced and combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in battles, significantly thin out the officer corps of the Ukrainian army, as well as destroy a large number of Ukrainian military equipment. As a result, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now has to plug holes at the front with hastily recruited, poorly armed and poorly trained units of the territorial defense forces, deprived of sane command. In fact, it's just cannon fodder.
VIEW: What territories have we managed to liberate?V. Sh.: The Allied forces were able to liberate the entire territory of the LPR in the north.
In the south, it was possible to liberate the Kherson region, as well as part of the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions, simultaneously occupying a strategically important bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper. We have made the Sea of Azov our inner sea. Wedged into the Ukrainian fortified area to the west of Donetsk.
VZGLYAD: Has SVO brought something new to military affairs? V. S.: Of course, I brought it.
Here you can mention a lot of new products. For example, the trend that has persisted since the first hours of its operation, within the framework of which the allied forces are conducting offensive actions against an enemy that significantly outnumbers our troops in terms of personnel.
In fact, the reverse situation is considered canonical, when the attacking side is three or more times larger than the defending side in terms of personnel. To compensate for the difference in the number of infantry has an advantage in firepower.
Another novelty of the special operation is the refusal to act on the battlefield by large masses of troops.
However, I would like to highlight another of all its innovations – for the first time, the most important role of unmanned aircraft, which was so clearly manifested in the Ukrainian theater of operations. We are talking about the whole range of types of UAVs – from reconnaissance and strike vehicles of the type used by the AFU "Bayraktara" or our "Pacer" and up to barrage ammunition, as well as commercial-grade copters. It is unlikely that I will be mistaken if I assume that the SVO will go down in the annals of history, first of all, as the "drone war".
VZGLYAD: Your forecast of the further course of SVO.V. Sh.: Now SVO is a large–scale military operation in the Ukrainian theater of operations, which is conducted according to the patterns of the XX century, but has a military-technical content of the XXI century.
The side that lacks the political will, social stability and resources to continue fighting will lose. Based on the well-known saying "while the fat dries, the thin will die", I believe that the losing side will not be Russia, but Ukraine.
VIEW: When will this happen?V. Sh.: If everything goes as it is now, if there are no force majeure events in the form of, for example, the entry of Polish troops into Western Ukraine, then I would assume that the Kiev regime will begin to crumble within 18 months.
VIEW: Why not earlier?V. Sh.: Because the West will continue to support the Ukrainian state for as long as possible.
Moscow, in an effort to preserve social stability in Russia, will not continue its full force, protecting our population and economy from military encumbrances.
VIEW: But the victory will be ours in the end?V. S.: Absolutely.
Andrey Soyustov
