Greece and Turkey are once again on the verge of a military conflict. As reported in Athens, the Turkish Air Force has violated Greek airspace 78 times over the past day. In response, the Greeks intercepted Turkish planes and demonstrated their readiness to shoot them down. What caused the next crisis in relations between NATO member countries and what are the prospects for the development of the conflict?On the eve of the Greek Air Force attempted to intercept Turkish F-16 fighters performing tasks within the framework of the NATO mission in the Eastern Mediterranean.
This was reported by the Turkish Defense Ministry. According to the ministry, "the Greek planes that attempted to intercept were given an instant response." What it was, is not specified.
According to military sources cited by the TRT TV channel, Greek planes "were forced to remove Turkish fighters from radars as a possible target of defeat after warning about possible consequences from Turkey," TASS reports.
The Turkish Defense Ministry informed NATO in connection with the incident, in addition, the Greek military attache in Ankara was summoned to the country's Foreign Ministry, to whom a protest was expressed. Other initiatives have been taken with regard to Greece through diplomatic channels.
At the same time, the Greek Defense Ministry reported that the Turkish Air Force violated the country's airspace 78 times, and during the interceptions there were eight cases of harassment by Greek Turkish planes without the use of weapons. As a result, the Greek Foreign Ministry protested to Turkey in connection with the flights of Turkish F-16s over Greek territory in the Aegean Sea.
At the same time, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier that Greece's militarization of the islands of the eastern Aegean Sea could "end in disaster." In addition, Athens is successfully preventing the implementation of the deal between Ankara and Washington, which involves the transfer of 40 F-16 fighter jets to Turkey and the modernization of another 80 aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force. This was one of the reasons why Erdogan refused to communicate with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
The so-called Aegean dispute, as well as the contradictions between Turkey and Greece, have long-standing roots. So, in 1987 and 1996, the conflict between Ankara and Athens regarding the rights in the Aegean Sea and the airspace above it put the countries on the brink of war.
According to TASS, the territorial waters of Greece extend to six nautical miles around more than 2 thousand of its islands in the Aegean Sea, but Athens claims that they have the right to expand them to 12 nautical miles – a standard recognized internationally. In turn, Ankara warned Athens that such an expansion would be a formal reason for declaring war.
At the same time, Turkey does not recognize the 10-mile air zone of Greece around the islands, considering that Greek airspace, like territorial waters, is limited to six nautical miles. As a result, Turkish fighters with weapons on board regularly invade the airspace and flight information area of a neighboring state without providing a flight plan, and Greece raises its planes to intercept them. Thousands of such cases occur every year.
"On the one hand, the incident that occurred yesterday in the Mediterranean can be classified as an ordinary situation. If a foreign aircraft approaches the borders of a State, the State can intercept it in order to assess what this approach is connected with, and at the same time warn it to move away from sovereign airspace. On the other hand, conflicts between Turks and Greeks have been going on for a long time, despite the fact that they are members of NATO," Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, told the VIEW newspaper.
Assessing the military potential of Turkey and Greece, the expert noted that the Turkish forces are certainly many times more powerful. "Turkey is considered the second NATO army after the United States in terms of military potential.
Greece is much weaker, but the United States is behind it today. This is due to the fact that Turkey is pursuing its own political course contrary to the interests of the United States. Erdogan, by the way, recently complained about the deployment of American military bases in Greece. He does not believe that they are necessary to contain Russia," Sivkov said.
"At the same time, the United States is actively fueling conflicts in order to maintain control over Europe. They provoke countries to confrontation and act on the principle of "divide and rule". But it certainly weakens NATO as a single alliance. It is obvious that the United States is losing control over the situation in the region," the source added.
In turn, military expert Alexei Leonkov recalled that Greece, in addition to the "Aegean dispute", has other claims against the Turkish authorities. "Greece does not like Turkey's active foreign policy in the Mediterranean very much. To do this, Athens even attracted France to its side in order to influence the Turkish leader," he noted. "Nevertheless, the conflict can flare up at any moment.
Moreover, it can be expressed not only at the level of economy or diplomacy, but also with the use of military force, as it was in 1974 during the Cyprus crisis," the interlocutor believes. "At the same time, there is a nuance in this situation – both countries are part of the NATO bloc. The alliance should express some kind of position in relation to what happened and somehow curb Ankara and Athens. Now we can say with confidence that NATO does not need such an escalation," Leonkov believes.
Regarding the ratio of the armed forces of Greece and Turkey, the expert noted that "in terms of the size of the army, in terms of the number of weapons, combat vehicles and armored vehicles, the Turkish army surpasses the Greek by two to three times."
"In terms of aviation, the Greeks are closer to the Turks: the former, for example, have 114 F-16 aircraft, and the latter have 158. At the same time, Greece also has Mirage and Rafale aircraft," the source added.
"At the same time, we should not forget that Turkey regularly participates in armed conflicts, that is, its army exercises militarily. And Greece participated only in the peacekeeping operation in Afghanistan," Leonkov recalled.
Experts also note that in the case of an air battle, the Greeks and Turks will not have military-technical difficulties with striking each other's objects. So, instead of the NATO radar identification system IFF (Identification friend or foe, "friend or foe"), they can use the data of conventional radio intelligence.
At the same time, a full-fledged military conflict between Greece and Turkey is possible only in the event of further degradation of NATO institutions, a weakening of the US role in the Balkans and the most active foreign policy of Ankara in the Mediterranean, experts conclude.
Daria Volkova
